This year's Central Economic Work Conference came earlier than in previous years.
The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 8th to 10th.
The meeting pointed out the direction of China's economy in 2022 and carried out systematic deployment.
What will China's economy do in 2022?
What are the important signals released by the conference?
Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column interviewed a number of authoritative experts for interpretation.
Steady word! 25 consecutive mentions "stable"
The meeting demanded that next year's economic work should take the lead and make progress while maintaining stability.
Compared with the previous years of "seek progress in stability", this time there are four more words: "Stability is the head".
How important is "stability"?
Observing the press release of the Central Economic Work Conference, the word "stability" was mentioned 25 times, which shows how much the central government attaches importance to "stability".
Why does the economy emphasize the word "stable" so much in 2022?
This is related to the downward pressure facing the Chinese economy.
According to the analysis of the conference, my country's economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations.
Under the impact of the epidemic in the century, the changes in the past century have accelerated, and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain.
Feng Xuming, director of the Macro Policy Research Office of the Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that my country’s economy is currently facing a certain downward pressure, and risks that were originally hidden under the water in some areas may be exposed at an accelerated rate. Therefore, the Central Economic Work Conference has repeatedly Emphasizing "stability" is also aimed at further emphasizing the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability and further strengthening this comparative advantage of our country.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Research Institute, pointed out that the "triple pressure" is an objective, rational, and accurate judgment of the central government on the economic situation.
The world economy is expected to slow down next year, external demand will shrink, domestic demand will also be relatively weak, the base effect of economic growth will weaken, and at the same time, we will face issues such as global inflation and blocked supply chains.
The emphasis on stability is also based on the choice under the changing international and domestic situations.
The data picture shows the Haicang Container Terminal of Xiamen Port.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming
Focus on the deployment of seven major policies
For the specific work of next year, the meeting made key deployments from seven major policies-
First, the macro policy must be sound and effective.
Second, micro-policies must continue to stimulate the vitality of market entities.
Third, structural policies should focus on smoothing the circulation of the national economy.
Fourth, science and technology policies must be implemented in a solid manner.
Fifth, the reform and opening policy must activate development momentum.
Sixth, regional policies should enhance the balance and coordination of development.
Seventh, social policies must hold the bottom line of people's livelihood.
Chen Daofu, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the previous three policy combinations to the current seven policy combinations reflect that the situation next year is more complicated, and secondly, when the party’s 20th National Congress is convened, the requirements To be more comprehensive, not only to maintain a stable and healthy economic environment, but also to maintain a social environment in the country and the people's peace, but also to have a clean and upright political environment, which also reflects a more sophisticated policy response.
Among the seven major policy deployments, there are many new measures, new formulations, and new changes that are worthy of attention.
——Proactive fiscal policy needs to improve efficiency
The meeting called for the continued implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.
The term proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy has not changed, but proactive fiscal policy must improve efficiency and pay more attention to precision and sustainability.
Feng Xuming pointed out that under the current downward pressure on the economy, proactive fiscal next year will reflect three new connotations: First, in terms of "strength", on the one hand, it will implement new tax and fee reduction policies and continue to maintain a moderate fiscal policy. Expenditure intensity, hedging the decline in private sector demand.
The second is to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure in terms of "structure."
Specifically, there are three "strengthening": strengthening support for small, medium and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, manufacturing, risk reduction, etc.; strengthening support for the construction of "two new and one heavy", technological transformation, capacity greening and other fields, through financial Expenditure helps the supply side consolidate the capital and cultivate the foundation; strengthen the expansion of supply and improve the quality of public service fields such as education, culture, sports, elderly care, and medical care.
Third, in terms of the "rhythm", the pace of fiscal expenditure should be appropriately moved forward, especially the appropriate advancement of infrastructure investment.
Profile picture.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming
——Adopting policies in different cities to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry
The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on December 6 proposed "promoting the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry". In contrast, the Central Economic Work Conference put the expression of "virtuous circle" in front of "healthy development".
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that the current real estate market is indeed caught in the contradictions and embarrassments that are difficult to be virtuous. Real estate risks have increased significantly.
Therefore, only when a virtuous circle is realized between the "market-enterprise-resident family" of the real estate market, can real estate truly usher in the space for healthy development.
Feng Xuming believes that real estate is an important sub-cycle in the domestic economic cycle, and this sub-cycle of real estate will have a significant impact on other links in the economic cycle.
The virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate market are of systemic importance to macroeconomic stability.
In the current and next few quarters, the real estate market in fourth- and fifth-tier cities must be carefully managed to stabilize housing prices and expectations, and avoid a hard landing.
Data map: A number of leading international chip manufacturing companies showcase their latest equipment and products.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Hengwei
——Strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological strength and reorganize the national key laboratories
The Central Economic Work Conference required the implementation of a three-year action plan for the reform of the scientific and technological system and the formulation and implementation of a ten-year plan for basic research.
Reorganize national key laboratories and promote the reform of scientific research institutes.
Strengthen the dominant position of enterprise innovation and deepen the integration of production, learning, and research.
Yu Shaohua, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that the requirements of the meeting are of great significance to the development of scientific research in my country. In terms of building a national strategic scientific and technological force, the core strategic scientific and technological force of the country can play a leading and leading role in the reform of the national scientific and technological system, create a new type of scientific research institution, and explore new ones. The management system and scientific research organization mechanism have broken through unreasonable institutional constraints, and empowered innovation subjects with greater autonomy and exploration rights, and formed a strong core, multi-base, networked collaborative innovation and integrated innovation pattern.
Wu Hequan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that the requirements of the meeting paid more attention to implementation and were more specific than before. They were not only general requirements, but also specific actions and planning guarantees. There must be specific arrangements behind this.
It also mentioned the reorganization of national key laboratories, strengthening the status of corporate innovation as the main body, etc., through scientific and technological reforms, including basic research, to enhance my country's scientific and technological strength.
Correctly understand and grasp 5 major theoretical and practical issues
The meeting also made it clear that five major theoretical and practical issues must be correctly understood and grasped-
It is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the strategic goals and practical approaches for achieving common prosperity.
It is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavioral laws of capital.
It is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the supply of primary products.
It is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the prevention and resolution of major risks.
It is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
Feng Xuming pointed out that these five major theoretical and practical issues are fundamental to promoting high-quality economic development.
Correctly understanding and grasping these major theoretical and practical issues have both long-term importance and short-term urgency.
Xu Hongcai believes that in response to the five issues, there are different voices in the market, and there are differences and disputes. Therefore, the meeting will solve doubts, point out the direction, and have a very strong pertinence. It manages both the current and the long-term, and sends out stability through the market. The signal to unify everyone’s thinking and understanding will help stabilize market expectations.
Among them, there are some formulations worthy of attention.
In July 2020, aerial photography of the resettlement site of Chongde Community, Tianba Community, Huangjiaba Street, Meitan County, Zunyi City, Guizhou Province.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Qu Honglun
——To achieve the goal of common prosperity, we must first make the "cake" bigger and better through the joint efforts of the people of the whole country, and then cut the "cake" well through reasonable institutional arrangements.
Han Wenxiu, the deputy director of the Office of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics in charge of daily work, said before that there is no shortcut to common prosperity.
It is necessary to build basic institutional arrangements for the coordination of primary distribution, redistribution, and three-time distribution, so that the adjustment of income distribution can not only divide the pie, but also help further expand the pie.
He said that the state encourages and supports enterprises and entrepreneurs to actively participate in public welfare and charities if they have the will and ability, which will objectively play a role in the third distribution.
With the continuous development of Chinese enterprises and more people getting rich, coupled with the improvement of national incentive policies, China's public welfare and philanthropy will usher in a major development.
——We must set up "traffic lights" for capital, strengthen effective supervision of capital in accordance with the law, and prevent the brutal growth of capital.
Chen Daofu said that in the disorderly expansion of regulated capital, some concerns have emerged in the market, and the source needs to be corrected.
Therefore, it is proposed to set up "traffic lights" instead of blindly banning, but combining with blocking and effective supervision.
Zhang Chenying, a member of the Anti-Monopoly Committee of the State Council and director of the Competition Law Research Center of Tsinghua University Law School, said that setting up "traffic lights" means that under the framework of the Constitution, laws and regulations, the boundaries between legal and illegal are cleared and supervised in accordance with the law.
Firstly, clarify the legal rules, through various guides, interpretations, exemplary cases, etc., to clarify and refine the rules to improve the transparency of the legal rules, encourage capital to operate in compliance, and prevent problems before they happen; secondly, to supervise in accordance with the law, fair supervision, and adhere to development Pay equal attention to norms; again, judge in accordance with the law, comply with the substantive and procedural rules, and treat illegal acts in accordance with the law, and treat them equally, combine special prevention with general prevention, and prevent the slightest failure.
Data map: Coal railway transportation.
Photo by Lu Yufei
—— Create conditions to realize the transition from "dual control" of energy consumption to "dual control" of total carbon emissions and intensity as soon as possible.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
Create conditions to realize the transition from "dual control" of energy consumption to "dual control" of total carbon emissions and intensity as soon as possible, and so on.
Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that new energy is “clean but unstable” and coal is “stable but not clean”. How can the two cooperate with each other in the process of transformation to achieve a low-carbon characteristic with Chinese characteristics. The road to transformation.
Dual control of energy consumption is considered from the perspective of energy efficiency. In the future, for low-carbon transition, new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, which can play a role in encouraging economic development.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that in the process of promoting carbon peaks and carbon neutrality, some places have developed a one-sided understanding, and adopted one-size-fits-all measures such as curtailing electricity and limiting production, which have affected business operations. Therefore, we now have a correct understanding and grasp. Carbon reaches its peak and carbon neutralizes, preventing simple layer-by-layer decomposition and returning to the right track.
Author: Li Jinlei Wu Tao Zuo Yukun Xie Yiguan Zhang Xu Zuo Yuqing Gong Hongyu Cheng Chunyu