On December 9, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) for November released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in November, the CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year, and the rate of increase was expanded; the month-on-month increase was 0.4%. .
As the implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and price stabilization continued to increase, PPI rose by 12.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell;
The "scissors gap" between the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI was 10.6 percentage points, which was 1.4 percentage points narrower than the previous month.
From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.
Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that the year-on-year increase has increased more, mainly due to the lower base in the same period last year.
According to estimates, of the 2.3% year-on-year increase in November, the carry-over impact of price changes last year was approximately 0.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the impact of the new price increase was approximately 1.7 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month percentage point.
The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month.
On average in the first November, CPI rose 0.9% over the same period last year.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, said that the year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly driven by food prices and last year's base effect.
First, demand is picking up.
In November, the domestic spread of the epidemic was under control, and economic activity rebounded, which drove the rise in prices of services and other services; the second is to superimpose seasonal factors.
Seasonal consumption growth and the short-term tight supply and demand of vegetables and pork continue to push up related prices; the third is the impact of the low base last year.
In addition, gasoline and diesel prices have a more obvious impact on transportation prices.
Dong Lijuan said that in November, as the implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and price stabilization continued to increase, the rapid rise in prices of coal, metals and other energy and raw materials was initially curbed, and the increase in PPI declined.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that with the continuous implementation of the policy of maintaining supply and stabilizing prices for bulk commodities, the trend of rising prices of energy and raw materials has been basically curbed. Speeded up.
Zhou Maohua believes that the price trend in November has performed well, the CPI is generally mild year-on-year, the PPI is showing signs of cooling year-on-year, and the "scissors gap" has narrowed.
At present, the structural characteristics of domestic prices are still obvious, and it is expected that the subsequent "scissors gap" will continue to narrow.
Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, said that my country's grain production has reaped a bumper harvest and the expected annual price target can be successfully achieved.
With the gradual implementation of various measures to ensure supply and price stabilization, the prices of most industrial products may tend to fall, and the PPI growth rate in the later period is expected to continue the downward trend in general.
(Economic Daily News reporter Xiong Li)