Chinanews client, Beijing, December 11 (Zuo Yukun) The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 8th to 10th.
Regarding the real estate market, the meeting continued to emphasize "adhering to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation", and at the same time put forward "in accordance with the city to implement policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry."
What impact will this have on the real estate market in 2022?
Data map: A real estate project that has just been constructed.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
constant! The red line of "housing and living is not going to fry" remains unshakable
The meeting demanded that the position that houses are used for living and not for speculation should be adhered to, guidance on expectations should be strengthened, new development models should be explored, rent and purchase should be pursued simultaneously, the development of long-term rental housing market should be accelerated, the construction of affordable housing should be promoted, and the commercial housing market should be supported. In order to meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, the city will implement policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
It has been five years since the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2016 mentioned for the first time "it is necessary to insist that the house is used for living, not for speculation".
"The Politburo meeting on December 6 did not mention'housing and housing, not speculation', not because it is not important, but precisely because it is so important that there is no need to talk about it anymore." Lou Jian, director of the Real Estate Law Research Center of Peking University Poland told Chinanews.com that the central government’s real estate policy has always been clear and continuous. It is normal to adopt lenient or strict regulation at different times, but the basic principles cannot be changed to prevent a hard landing.
"The long-term mechanism of'housing, not speculating' will not change, and all parties should not have the mentality of'stimulating real estate and speculating real estate'." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute believes.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, also said that even if policies can be relaxed in the future, all localities must strictly guard this red line.
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
newest! Strengthen anticipatory guidance and explore new development models
"Strengthening expected guidance and exploring new development models" is a relatively new expression in this year's Central Economic Work Conference.
"The first mention of the concept of anticipation guidance shows that there are new actions in anticipation management and guidance, including continuous follow-up in terms of stabilizing housing prices and supply of various types of land, so as to further stabilize market expectations." Yan Yuejin said, real estate The rectification of market order will also advance, and all kinds of behaviors that speculate on housing prices and cause expected instability will also be strictly controlled.
Xu Xiaole analyzed that "exploring new development models" will promote the transformation of real estate development models.
At present, the high-turnover, high-leverage development model formed in the long-term development of my country's real estate companies is no longer sustainable. Some companies have outbreaks of debt crises and need to adopt a combination of dredging and blocking to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of real estate companies, and prevent and resolve the development model. Real estate financial risks.
Shell platform data shows that in 2021, the average age of buying a house in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is 36-38 years old, which is about 2-3 years postponed compared to 2018. Many tenants have rented for more than 10 years, and the demand for home-based leasing will gradually appear in the future. .
The industry generally believes that the exploration and advancement of long-term rental housing, shared property housing, and affordable rental housing are all worth looking forward to.
"It is foreseeable that the housing rental market, especially the long-term rental housing market, will usher in a round of opportunities for development." said Feng Xuming, director of the Macro Policy Research Office of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Xu Xiaole predicts that next year, supporting policies for the long-term rental housing market will be introduced in terms of land, finance, finance and taxation. In the future, housing leasing companies will receive a good policy support environment.
Yan Yuejin also believes that the incremental market will gradually transform into a model of co-development of incremental and stock, especially the development of the stock market will accelerate; the model of profiting from rising housing prices and land prices will also change, which will further guide the concept of housing consumption to take root. Reverse the erroneous thinking of housing investment and real estate speculation to make profits.
Data map: A shantytown housing renovation project.
Photo by Gao Fengfeng
clear! Support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers
Consistent with the spirit of the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference also mentioned "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers."
"The current real estate market still has to return to its roots. Real estate companies have to build houses and meet the people's housing needs." Lou Jianbo said.
What is a reasonable housing demand?
Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project team of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Financial Strategy Research Institute, told Chinanews.com that reasonable demand, including first-time home purchase demand and improved home purchase demand, are supported by policies. Of course, speculative real estate speculation is still not supported. .
Yan Yuejin also said that the demand for just-needed and improved home purchases can also be simply understood as the first and second home purchase needs.
There is no problem in meeting the rigid needs. The key is to improve the demand for housing purchase, and subsequent land, credit, taxes and fees will be guaranteed.
In the future, the development space of the commercial housing market will increase, and the market position of real estate companies will rise.
Data map: citizens pass by in front of a real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun
Target! Implementing policies in accordance with the city to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry
The meeting clarified that "in accordance with the city's policy to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry".
In Zou Linhua's view, "policies in accordance with the city" will promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, with greater autonomy in local real estate policies and more diverse policy goals.
So what is "loop"?
Feng Xuming explained that real estate is an important sub-cycle in the domestic economic cycle, and this sub-cycle of real estate will have a significant impact on other links in the economic cycle.
The virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate market are of systemic importance to macroeconomic stability.
"Housing consumption is also an important aspect of domestic demand. Supporting the reasonable needs of home buyers is not only conducive to improving the level of residential housing, but also conducive to promoting economic growth." Zou Linhua said.
One detail is that, compared with the statement of the Central Political Bureau meeting "promoting the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry", the Central Economic Work Conference puts the statement of "virtuous circle" at the front and "healthy development" at the back.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin explained that the current real estate market is indeed caught in the contradictions and embarrassments that are difficult to virtuously cycle, which shows that the real estate elements between the "market-enterprise-resident family" are not flowing smoothly, resulting in low real estate operation efficiency and obvious real estate risks. Increase, and only when a virtuous circle is realized among the three, can real estate truly usher in the space for healthy development.
On the whole, Feng Xuming believes that the current virtuous circle and healthy development of real estate are mainly faced with two major issues: short-term risks and long-term mechanisms: in the short term, individual real estate companies are exposed to risks, and relevant departments are properly handling and resolving them in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law; Look, the main problem facing my country's real estate market is the imbalance of supply and demand structure.
"It is expected that the real estate market will be gradually repaired in 2022 without a hard landing, and will continue to play the role of a'stabilizer' in economic operations." Xu Xiaole believes that in the future, real estate will be guided by a "virtuous cycle", and the pre-existing financial policy will be structured. Sexual adjustments, on the one hand, moderately relax the control over financing of real estate enterprises, on the other hand, improve the credit environment for housing purchases.
"To keep the bottom line of real estate development, one is not to bring financial risks, and the other is not to affect the development of the real economy." Lou Jianbo said that on this basis, no matter what policy changes occur, it is normal.
(Finish)