(Economic Observation) China will strive for stability while achieving its dual carbon goals
China News Service, Beijing, December 10 (Reporter Ruan Yulin) The Central Economic Work Conference, which closed on the 10th, proposed that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy sources should be established on the basis of safe and reliable replacement of new energy sources.
Relevant Chinese experts said that carbon neutrality is a long-term process that cannot be achieved overnight. It is necessary to make progress while maintaining stability. In the next 10 to 15 years, traditional energy sources in China will continue to dominate.
The meeting proposed that we must correctly understand and grasp the peak of carbon and carbon neutrality.
Achieving carbon peaks and carbon neutrality is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development. It must be unswervingly promoted, but it is impossible to accomplish it in one fell swoop.
It is necessary to adhere to the principles of national overall planning, saving priority, two-wheel drive, smooth flow inside and outside, and risk prevention.
The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy sources should be based on the safe and reliable replacement of new energy sources.
In September 2020, during the general debate of the 75th United Nations General Assembly, China proposed for the first time a carbon peak by 2030 and a carbon neutral goal by 2060.
Chang Jiwen, deputy director of the Resource and Environmental Policy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that carbon peak carbon neutralization is a long-term process. Harmony is not just a battle. In the process, it is necessary to achieve an orderly balance between economic society and low-carbon development.
The "Carbon Peak Action Plan by 2030" issued on October 24 proposes that, based on China's energy resource endowment, which is rich in coal and poor in oil and less gas, insist on first breaking down, stabilizing the stock, and expanding the increase in order to ensure national energy security With economic development as the bottom line, strive for time to realize the gradual replacement of new energy, promote the smooth transition of energy low-carbon transformation, and promote the carbon peaking action in a steady and orderly and gradual manner to ensure safe carbon reduction.
The "Carbon Peak Action Plan by 2030" requires that by 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%; by 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%, and the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP will be higher than that in 2005. Decrease by more than 65%, and successfully achieve the carbon peak goal by 2030.
Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that, from a global perspective, the current primary energy structure of China and the world have similarities and differences. For example, in the energy consumption structure, fossil energy accounts for 85%. Left and right, including coal, oil, and natural gas, the difference is that coal accounts for 58% of China, natural gas and oil account for a relatively small proportion, and coal has the highest carbon content. This is also the biggest feature of China's current carbon dioxide emissions and energy structure.
Lin Boqiang said that in the future, the transformation of China's energy structure will be relatively clear. China will not change from coal to oil and natural gas in the process of moving toward carbon neutrality by changing its energy structure. Instead, it will directly shift from coal to renewable energy alternatives.
However, in this process, how coal power and wind power photovoltaics complement each other is an important guarantee for a smooth low-carbon transition.
The meeting proposed that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy sources should be established on the basis of safe and reliable replacement of new energy sources.
It is necessary to establish the basic national conditions that coal is the mainstay, do a good job in the clean and efficient use of coal, increase the capacity of new energy consumption, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
"Before the new energy becomes a climate, new energy and traditional energy must cooperate with each other," Chang Jiwen said. In the next 10 to 15 years, traditional fossil energy will still play an important role in China's energy structure. New energy must be "supported." "Get on the horse and get a ride", when new energy plays a supporting role in the energy supply system, traditional energy will gradually withdraw.
The meeting emphasized the need to further promote the energy revolution and speed up the building of an energy powerhouse.
Chang Jiwen said that the energy revolution is to establish a new energy system with clean energy as the main body, which involves the transition between traditional energy and new energy.
The meeting called for scientific assessments, new renewable energy and raw material energy use are not included in the total energy consumption control, and create conditions to realize the transition from "dual control" of energy consumption to "dual control" of total carbon emissions and intensity as soon as possible, and accelerate the formation of reductions. The incentive and restraint mechanism for pollution reduction and carbon reduction prevents simple layer-by-layer decomposition.
Lin Boqiang said that the "dual control" of energy consumption is considered from the perspective of energy efficiency. New energy is not included in the total energy consumption control. It can play a role in encouraging economic development in the low-carbon transition.
New energy is “clean but unstable” and coal is “stable but not clean”. The two cooperate with each other in the transition process and should be able to embark on a path of low-carbon transition with Chinese characteristics.
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