(Economic Observation) How can China's economy break through in the face of triple pressure?
China News Service, Beijing, December 10 (Liu Wenwen) The Central Economic Work Conference held on the 10th pointed out that China's economic development is facing three pressures: demand shrinking, supply shocks, and weakening expectations.
Under the impact of the epidemic in the century, the changes in the past century have accelerated and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain.
Facing the triple pressure, how should China stabilize the economy within a reasonable range?
This year's Central Economic Work Conference, when setting the tone for next year's economic work, emphasized the need to take the lead, seek progress while stabilizing, focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market, and maintaining economic operations within a reasonable range.
In this regard, Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, said that these are obviously clear and firm signals of steady growth.
Because both high-quality development and the construction of a new development pattern need to maintain a reasonable economic growth rate, both need to be achieved under the premise of stable growth.
For this reason, to stabilize the macroeconomic market, we must first formulate an economic growth target that is realistic, practicable, and has stable expectations and confidence-inspiring effects.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that China's economic development is currently facing new downward pressure.
The meeting emphasized the protection of employment, people's livelihood, and market entities, which embodies the idea of keeping the bottom line.
The focus of next year’s work should start from the most difficult aspects.
"
According to Wang Xiaosong, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China and a professor at the School of Economics, in the context of the gradual withdrawal of the extraordinary fiscal and monetary policies in response to the epidemic, consumer demand and investment demand have shown a significant decline this year.
The continuous rise in international commodity prices has brought cost pressures to many industries; the return of monetary policy to normalcy has led to narrow funding, difficulties in corporate financing, and shrinking production, which has also led to insufficient supply.
Judging from the purchasing managers' index and the residents' future income confidence index, the current micro-subjects' expectations for the future are not very optimistic, which will further lead to conservative consumption behavior and insufficient corporate investment, thereby exacerbating demand contraction.
Wang Xiaosong said, “To overcome the above pressure, a comprehensive package of plans is needed to expand domestic demand and tap the potential of domestic demand.”
He further pointed out, "The plan must be truly launched from the level of expansion of domestic demand strategy. It requires the coordination of medium and long-term reform plans, medium-term strategic adjustment plans, and short-term policy plans. This requires us to start from the system, mechanism, and policy levels. To carry out multi-dimensional adjustments. Therefore, after completing the poverty alleviation goal and solving the main contradictions in the relative poverty period, it is necessary to focus on launching the middle class doubling plan, starting from the two dimensions of doubling the number and doubling the income."
The importance of coping with pressure and stimulating market vitality cannot be ignored.
Wang Xiaosong emphasized that it is necessary to maintain a high degree of attention to the enthusiasm of various micro-market entities, especially the current investment incentives for private enterprises.
To unswervingly encourage, support, and guide the development of the non-public economy, this requires fiscal policy, monetary policy, and government administration to tilt the non-public economy so that it has relatively smooth financing channels and faces a level playing field. Have good expectations of becoming bigger and stronger.
Yu Miaojie, Secretary of the Party Committee and Deputy Dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, predicts that China will relatively increase its scale next year to support small, medium and micro enterprises and promote their further relief from the epidemic.
(Finish)