Chinanews client, Beijing, December 9th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Driven by the sharp rise in fresh vegetable prices and other factors, the national consumer price (CPI) increased markedly in November year-on-year, returning to the "second era" after a lapse of 14 months.
CPI rise and fall chart.
From the National Bureau of Statistics
CPI year-on-year increase in November hit a new high for the year
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th, the CPI in November rose by 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, setting a new high for the year.
Specifically, food prices have changed from a 2.4% year-on-year decline to an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, affecting the CPI's rise by about 0.30 percentage points.
In food, the price of pork fell by 32.7%, which was 11.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.68 percentage points; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 30.6%, which was an increase of 14.7 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.60 percentage points. .
Non-food prices rose by 2.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, affecting the CPI's rise by about 2.04 percentage points.
Among non-food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 3.9%, an increase of 0.1%. Among them, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 36.7% and 40.6%, respectively, and the increase continued to expand; the price of services rose by 1.5%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month.
"The year-on-year increase in November expanded more. In addition to the new price increase this month, it was mainly due to the low base of the same period last year." said Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
According to estimates, of the 2.3% year-on-year increase in CPI in November, the carry-over impact of price changes last year was approximately 0.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the impact of the new price increase was approximately 1.7 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month percentage point.
The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month.
Data map: In a large supermarket in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, citizens are buying vegetables.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhai Yujia
The price of vegetables fell compared with the previous month, and the price of pork rebounded
From a month-on-month perspective, due to the combined effects of seasonal factors, rising costs, and spreading epidemics, the CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in November, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, food prices rose by 2.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.43 percentage points.
"In food, affected by factors such as seasonal consumption demand growth and short-term tight supply of fat pigs, the price of pork has changed from a decline to an increase, rising by 12.2%. Various localities have taken multiple measures to ensure the supply of'vegetable baskets'. As the number of vegetables on the market gradually increases, The price increase of fresh vegetables dropped by 9.8 percentage points from the previous month.” Dong Lijuan pointed out.
Data map: A pork stall in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan
CPI will continue to maintain a moderate upward trend
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from November 29 to December 5, the national market price of edible agricultural products dropped by 0.5% from the previous week.
Among them, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables was 5.62 yuan per kilogram, down 3.6%, the wholesale prices of spinach, cucumber, and green pepper fell by 12.4%, 11.7%, and 8.9% respectively; the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits rose slightly; the price of meat increased as a result. Mainly, the wholesale prices of pork and beef rose by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively, and the wholesale prices of mutton fell by 0.3%.
"Combined with previous price trends and a series of related factors, it is expected that the CPI will increase year-on-year in December or remain stable, and the annual CPI will remain within the price control target." said Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University.
“In the next stage, my country’s grain production is expected to have another bumper harvest. Live pig production capacity is currently recovering on the whole. Pork prices are still declining year-on-year, which will slow down the increase in CPI.” Fu Linghui, Director of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Comprehensive Statistics Department, said recently. At the same time, from the perspective of the overall supply of industry and service industries, the market supply is still relatively sufficient, and the CPI does not have the basis for a sharp rise.
Based on these circumstances, my country's economy is expected to continue to recover steadily, and consumer prices will continue to rise moderately.
Data map: Electric coal transportation.
Photo by Yuan Yong
PPI falls, "stagflation-like" risk cools
Previously, in the face of high PPI and upstream price increases, many people were worried about the risk of "quasi-stagflation".
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, as the implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continued to increase, the rapid rise in prices of coal, metals and other energy and raw materials was initially curbed.
From a year-on-year perspective, PPI rose by 12.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, pointed out that the risk of "quasi-stagflation" facing the Chinese economy cooled in November.
In terms of prices, the PPI peaked and fell year-on-year, and the base effect + pig prices stopped falling and rebounded to promote the CPI to rise relatively quickly but the risks were controllable, and the price scissors narrowed.
Fu Linghui also said that from the perspective of prices, although the imported impact of rising international energy prices continues, various domestic parties have increased their efforts to increase production and supply, and increase their financial and financial support for enterprises. All help reduce the pressure of rising production prices and reduce the transmission of PPI to CPI.
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