China-Singapore Jingwei, December 7th (Dong Xiangyi) Yiju Real Estate Research Institute released on the 6th the "November 2021 National 40 City New Commercial Housing Transaction Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "report") shows that the

November 40 city new houses Trading volume

hit a new single-month low in the past 10 years, and it

is expected that it will continue to bottom out in the short term.

  It is understood that the 40 typical cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen 4 first-tier cities; Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao and other 18 second-tier cities; and Yangzhou, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Yueyang and other 18 third- and fourth-tier cities.

November 40 city new house transactions hit a record low

  The report data shows that in November 2021, the transaction of newly built commercial residential buildings in 40 typical cities monitored by E-House Research Institute was 20,400,000 square meters, which was the worst November performance in the past 10 years.

In terms of growth rate, the volume of transactions in November fell by 4.3% month-on-month and 39.4% year-on-year.

  New latitude and longitude in the data map

  Towards the end of the year, some developers will increase their launch efforts due to tight funding and sprint performance at the end of the year, and the phenomenon of discounts and promotions will also increase.

However, the

report believes that in the case of a noticeable change in property market expectations, it may be difficult for transaction volume to grow in the short term.

It is expected that the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in 40 cities will continue to bottom out.

  In addition, the report shows that from January to November, the cumulative transaction area of ​​newly built commercial residential buildings in 40 cities increased by 2.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 5.3 percentage points from the previous month.

It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the transaction area of ​​newly-built commercial residential buildings in 40 cities will turn from positive to negative.

Zhejiang cools down, Ningbo shrinks by more than 60% this year

  The report shows that from January to November in the first, second, third and fourth tier cities, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly-built commercial residential transactions has slowed down, with the growth rates being 23.7%, 4.9%, and -8.3%, respectively, which are 8.7 and 5.1% respectively from the previous month. , 4.7 percentage points, is expected to continue to fall in December.

  Specifically, first-tier cities had the highest year-on-year growth rate in November.

The report believes that, first, due to the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate in the first two months of this year has the largest increase. Therefore, although the overall decline is relatively fastest in the cooling state, the overall level is also high; second, there are still limitations in first-tier cities. Price orders, the new house market is still hot.

  The growth rate of third-tier cities turned negative in October, and the year-on-year decline continued to expand in November.

According to the report, firstly, the third-tier cities had the smallest surge in February this year, so the overall growth rate is currently the lowest; secondly, the third-tier cities have a large number of developers and tend to oversupply, causing the market to deteriorate faster.

  In terms of different cities, the top ten cities in terms of cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly-built commercial residential transactions from January to November are:

Xiamen, Zhuhai, Hangzhou, Beijing, Fuzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan, Shanghai, and Chengdu.

The bottom five cities are

Luoyang, Huizhou, Huai'an, Nanning, and Shaoguan.

  In terms of city characteristics, the

top-ranked cities are mainly first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities, while the bottom-ranked cities are mainly third-tier cities.

Among them, the temperature drop in Zhejiang was the most significant, mainly due to the relatively hot property market in Zhejiang during the same period last year, and the base period value was relatively high.

  The most representative city is Ningbo, with a cumulative decline of 17.3% in new house sales from January to November.

In January this year, Ningbo’s new house transaction volume once reached 1.874 million square meters, but only 639,000 square meters were sold in November. Compared with the hot market at the beginning of the year, this year’s contraction was as high as 65%.

How does the RRR cut affect the purchase of a house?

  Within one day, the real estate market ushered in two major news.

  On December 6, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2022, and proposed “to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry. "

  New latitude and longitude in the data map

  In the view of Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, this statement is very important. Big ups and downs are not healthy. Smooth operation also includes the stable supply of funds, rather than the volatility of the industry caused by capital tightening; a virtuous circle is land supply, development, and sales. Virtuous circle.

  On December 6, the Central Bank decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021, which will release a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term funds.

Regarding the impact of the real estate market, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that banks have increased their efforts in housing loans because of the improvement in capital allocation capabilities, which in turn will help the activity of mortgage loans, development loans and other fields. .

Previously, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission mentioned that it should focus on guaranteeing rigid demand and improving housing demand.

Based on this

,

it can be considered that subsequent mortgages will be invested in such areas.

  Yan Yuejin believes that housing loans will be further relaxed, but the real estate market still has to grasp the main line of regulation. If illegal funds enter the real estate, all kinds of regulation must also be tightened.

In other words, reasonable mortgage demand can be better met.

However, demand for illegal mortgages still has to be tightened.

  “Recently, the central government has intensively released loose signals, but judging from the time when the policy is transmitted to the market in the past, there will often be a lag period of about half a year.” Pan Hongyu, a researcher at the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that near the end of the year, some developers due to funding Tension and sprint performance at the end of the year will increase the launch of the market, and the phenomenon of discounts and promotions will also increase.

On the whole, in the next three months, the volume of new home transactions in 40 cities will not be able to reverse the decline, and will continue to bottom out.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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