Sino-Singapore Jingwei at 24:00 on December 3 (Fu Jianqing) today (3rd), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.
Comprehensive agencies predict that domestic refined oil prices will drop in this price adjustment cycle.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that this may be the fifth drop in refined oil prices during the year.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
In this round of pricing cycle, due to the influence of the mutant strain of Omi Keron, the market is worried that the pace of global economic recovery will slow down again, and international oil prices will fall sharply.
WTI crude oil futures began to rebound after hitting $66/barrel, but as the United States confirmed the first case of Omi Keron infection, crude oil began to fall again.
As of the early morning of December 2, Beijing time, WTI January crude oil futures closed at 65.57 US dollars per barrel, and Brent February crude oil futures closed at 68.87 US dollars per barrel.
In terms of inventory data, on December 1, local time, data released by the US EIA showed that as of the week of November 26, US crude oil inventories decreased by 910,000 barrels, which is expected to decrease by 1.45 million barrels.
In addition, the U.S. EIA gasoline inventories increased by 4.029 million barrels for the week ending November 26, which is expected to decrease by 332,000 barrels.
According to Sino-Singapore Jingwei, since this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 22 rounds of adjustments, with a cumulative increase of fourteen up, four down, and four stranded. The price of gasoline has been increased by 1,905 yuan/ton, and the price of diesel has been increased by 1,835 yuan/ton. .
Among the four price cuts that have been lowered, the largest adjustment was made on August 23, in which gasoline was reduced by 250 yuan per ton and diesel was reduced by 245 yuan per ton.
If this round of adjustment is implemented, it will be the fifth downward adjustment this year.
According to Longzhong Information's calculations, as of December 1st, the comprehensive rate of change in crude oil was -7.62%, corresponding to a reduction of 335 yuan/ton. This round of oil price adjustment and decline is a high probability event.
At the same time, it is expected that this round of domestic refined oil price adjustment corresponds to a theoretical reduction of about 380 yuan/ton.
According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, as of December 1, the domestic reference crude oil change rate is -8.11%. It is expected that gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 360 yuan/ton. After the price increase, 0# diesel will be reduced by 0.31 yuan/liter, and 92# gasoline will be reduced by 0.28 yuan. /Liter, 95# gasoline will be reduced by 0.30 yuan/liter.
Zhuo Chuang Information believes that the current price adjustment cycle has come to the 9th working day, and it will be difficult to change the domestic crude oil change rate at a negative value. At 24:00 on December 3, the domestic retail price of refined oil will usher in the first "two consecutive declines" in the year. ".
At the same time, this round of reduction will hit the biggest drop in 20 months (from 24:00 on March 17, 2020), when consumer oil costs will drop significantly.
Li Yanjie, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Futures, believes that if the recent epidemic is not as pessimistic as market expectations, there is a high probability that oil prices will still have a certain upward momentum after the deep fall. However, as the Iranian nuclear agreement advances and the SPR implementation results, oil prices will still remain It may fall under pressure.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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