The global epidemic fluctuates repeatedly, and the pressure of rising commodity prices spreads——
Beware of imported risks of rising international food prices
Our reporter Liu Hui
At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still fluctuating around the world, and the upward pressure on commodity prices is being transmitted. Will there be major fluctuations in the world food market?
Global food prices have risen by more than 40% this year. What is the trend of China's food security?
The reporter learned from interviews that at present, my country's grain supply is fully guaranteed, and grain prices generally maintain a stable operation.
Experts believe that my country needs to make good use of both domestic and international markets and resources, make efforts to prevent imported influences from the international market, and firmly hold the initiative in food security.
Both grain production and imports increase
This year, my country's grain production and imports have shown a good situation of "increasing simultaneously", and grain supply is fully guaranteed.
Grain production is expected to increase throughout the year, achieving the goal of stable production and increasing output of more than 1.3 trillion catties set at the beginning of the year. Grain imports have recorded a record growth. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, imports from January to October were 137.956 million tons, an increase from the same period last year. 23%, the annual import volume is expected to exceed last year.
"A large amount of grain imports is of positive significance for ensuring a stable supply of domestic grain." said Tu Shengwei, director of the Rural Economic Research Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics and Technical Economics of the National Development and Reform Commission.
"The structural shortage of food is the main reason for the increase in food imports." said Zhong Yu, director of the Industrial Economic Research Office of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
This year, the release of pig production capacity has accelerated, and the demand for feed is strong. Most of the imported grain is used as feed.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, 492.93 million live pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 35.9% year-on-year; at the end of the third quarter, there were 437.64 million live pigs, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year.
In addition, it is to replenish corn stocks.
In 2020, my country's corn inventory consumption ratio is 50.8%, ensuring sufficient inventory and effectively stabilizing market expectations.
With the slow recovery of the global economy, global food prices have continued to rise this year.
According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the global cereal price index in October this year averaged 137.1 points, reaching the highest level since April 2013.
“At present, the domestic and foreign food markets are deeply integrated, and the price linkage is strong. The impact of rising global food prices on the domestic market cannot be ignored.” Tu Shengwei said.
The degree of foreign dependence of different food varieties in our country is different, and the degree of influence by the international market is also different.
Looking at the structure of grain imports from January to October this year, soybean imports were 79.08 million tons, accounting for 57.32% of total imports; corn, sorghum and barley imports were 44.35 million tons, accounting for 32% of total imports; wheat and rice imports were 11.98 million tons, accounting for 8.7% of total imports.
Soybean imports still dominate, and grain imports have sprung up.
Soybeans are highly dependent on imports. Corn and wheat are subject to import quota management. Import tariffs within quotas are lower, and additional import tariffs are higher, which effectively protects the domestic market.
Barley and sorghum are not protected by tariffs, but they account for a relatively small share of the total grain imports and have little impact on the domestic market.
Maintain the stability of the global food trade chain
Although the global food industry supply chain has been severely hit by the epidemic this year, the trade volume has increased unabated.
Tu Shengwei believes that under the food security panic caused by the epidemic, countries have generally increased the size of their reserves, and some food importing countries have actively encouraged imports, which has promoted the increase in global food trade.
At present, global food stocks continue to increase, and the stock-to-consumption ratio has stabilized at more than 30%, which is well above the international food security cordon of 17% to 18%.
"The epidemic has caused an imbalance between global food supply and demand. Although global food production has increased this year, demand has increased even more, and the supply-demand relationship has shown a steady and tighter trend." Zhong Yu said.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predicts that the global cereal production in 2021/22 will be 2.793 billion tons, an increase of about 21 million tons over the previous year; the global demand for cereals will reach 2.812 billion tons, an increase of 49 million tons over the previous year.
As a responsible food importing country, my country has always adhered to an all-round open policy, and the scale of food imports has maintained a steady growth.
Zhong Yu believes that this has stimulated the production capacity of major food exporting countries such as the United States and Brazil, and maintained the stability of the global food trade chain.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, my country has not imposed restrictions on grain imports and exports, maintaining the global trade order.
Although there has been an increase this year, the volume of global food trade is ultimately limited.
Zhong Yu believes that my country should make more effective use of the international market, make up for the domestic surplus through imports, and solve the structural shortage of domestic food. However, it must also fully consider the world's food supply capacity, maintain a relatively stable import scale, and avoid sudden large quantities of imports that affect food. Safety.
For this reason, my country should release clear import signals or reasonable and stable import demand expectations to the world every year, allowing grain exporting countries to expand production or increase export supply in advance according to the trend, and even encourage grain exporting countries to increase investment in grain production and technological innovation.
At the same time, we must pay close attention to the supply situation and price trends in the international grain market, strengthen monitoring of trade risks, natural risks, and factor supply risks, and import appropriately when international prices are low and supply is abundant, so as to effectively improve import efficiency.
Grasp the initiative in food import
In the context of the continuing epidemic and the increasingly complex international economic and trade environment, my country’s grain imports are facing severe challenges. A firm grasp of the stability and initiative of grain imports is of great significance to ensuring food security.
Zhong Yu believes that to grasp the stability and initiative of grain imports, we must first speed up the cultivation of our own multinational large grain merchants.
On the one hand, grain companies must deepen cooperation with major grain merchants to ensure the stability of food imports; on the other hand, they must rely on the "Belt and Road" initiative, regional comprehensive economic partnership agreements and other multilateral agreement frameworks to develop more trading partners and fully participate The construction, reconstruction and management of the global food industry chain, value chain, and supply chain will become the first echelon of multinational food merchants as soon as possible.
At the same time, it is necessary to actively explore trade channels, strive to achieve diversification of food imports, reduce trade concentration, and resist potential trade risks such as flight congestion and export restrictions.
Facing the normalization and trending of food imports in the future, my country should promote the standardization, transparency and proceduralization of food export restrictions under the framework of the WTO and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, and promote the improvement of export restrictions.
It is necessary to accelerate the construction of the free trade zone and actively build my country's global commodity trading center.
The key to enhancing my country's voice and pricing power in global grain trade is to base itself in the country and practice its "internal strength."
Tu Shengwei believes that my country must unremittingly do a good job in grain production, improve its grain storage capacity, ensure "basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute ration security", and firmly hold the initiative in food security, in order to control the stability and initiative of imports, and resist international grain. Imported inflation risks brought about by rising prices.