China-Singapore Jingwei, December 1 (Zhang Meng) There is only one last month left in 2021. What will happen to the A-share 12 trend?

Which sectors will have opportunities?

"V观财报" (WeChat ID: VG-View) sorts out the views of 10 brokers, let's take a look.

December A-share outlook

Everbright Securities: "Spring Disturbance" may start early

　　Everbright Securities believes that the "spring turmoil" may start early and it is worth the layout.

Historically, the "spring disturbance" has been opened more than New Year's Day and the Politburo meeting in January. However, in recent years, more and more investors have become familiar with and deployed the "spring effect" in advance, which has led to the overall "spring disturbance". The trend of gradual advancement, and has evolved into "New Year's Emotions."

Ping An Securities: The overall market is expected to fluctuate upward

　　Ping An Securities believes that the current market environment is mild, and it is recommended to pay attention to the effect of policy marginal improvement and grasp the high-prosperity sector driven by policies and industrial trends in the medium and long term.

The month-on-month improvement in the economy + stable and loose liquidity supported the bottom of the market. The central bank’s monetary policy implementation report released a wide-credit signal, and the market as a whole is expected to fluctuate upward.

Industrial Securities: New mutant strains have limited impact on A shares

　　Industrial Securities believes that the new mutant strain has limited impact on A shares, and at most is a short-term “false alarm”.

After the announcement of the variant strain, many countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, etc. have announced the implementation of travel bans, and the response speed is much faster than before.

Under the domestic epidemic prevention mechanism, new overseas mutants are difficult to cause a systemic rebound of the domestic epidemic.

With reference to the market performance during the previous rounds of fermentation of new overseas strains, if the global turmoil leads to short-term fluctuations in A shares, it is a buying point worth grasping.

Huajin Securities: The market will still be dominated by structural quotations

　　As the Federal Reserve officially began to reduce the scale of bond purchases, the boots for liquidity expectations have landed, and the "stagflation" concerns will also be greatly eased with the decline of commodities, and the overall liquidity of the domestic market will continue to maintain reasonable abundance in the near future.

At present, the market will still be dominated by structural market. Under the circumstance that the new variant of the new crown virus has not brought more impact, the market's new round of rebound since mid-November has not yet ended.

Yuekai Securities: December New Year's Eve market is still expected to start slowly

　　The trend of A-shares is relatively independent. Growth and some consumption are the main lines of the recent market. If the impact of the mutation virus exceeds expectations, it may slow down the tightening of overseas monetary policies. In addition, the advantages of my country's supply chain will once again be highlighted.

Part of the economic data has rebounded and the policy is expected to remain loose, as well as performance and capital support. It is expected that the New Year's Eve market in December is still expected to unfold slowly.

Galaxy Securities: a high probability of performance as a cyclical rise

　　External risks may have an emotional impact on A-shares, but the overall impact is limited.

Mutant viruses have reappeared overseas. The epidemic continues to affect the recovery of the global economy and is not conducive to aviation and offline service industries. However, the impact on the country is relatively limited, and the maintenance of export advantages is also conducive to economic growth.

In addition, the interest rate hike expectations of many central banks around the world continue to advance. Although the current asset allocation is still dominating the asset allocation logic, marginal changes will inevitably disturb market sentiment. Especially in the context of high valuations, the volatility of asset performance will be significant. Increase.

In addition, the U.S. debt problem once again ushered in a key node, and whether the shrinking fiscal stimulus plan of the United States can be successfully implemented may cause disturbance to the market.

The domestic macro environment is relatively conducive to the A-share market, but high valuations may restrict the upside potential. At the same time, external risks may increase volatility. A-shares are likely to show a cyclical rise. It is recommended to focus on balanced allocation of growth and value, and pay attention to policy statements.

Guosheng Securities: A-shares will continue to be "mainly based on me"

　　In the short term, the impact of risky assets is unavoidable, and the decline in crude oil reduces inflation expectations. However, for the domestic market, the independence of internal and external epidemics, the blockage of external supply chains, and the postponement of liquidity turning points will make A-shares continue to be "self-oriented." .

Brokerage investment strategy

China Merchants Securities: Focus on the "dual carbon" and "digital economy" and other directions

　　The intensity of steady growth in the future should gradually heat up.

In terms of industrial policy, "dual carbon", "digital economy", "technological independence", and "protecting people's livelihood and employment" should be the focus of future industrial policies.

In general, the purely low valuations under the background of the "shun technology" and "counter-cyclical" steady growth policies surrounding the new energy trend and the new information industry trend have become the core layout ideas in December or even the first half of next year.

Everbright Securities: Consumption and stable growth sector is worthy of attention

　　In terms of industry allocation, the consumption and stable growth sectors are worthy of attention.

Combining the historical performance of the "spring turmoil" industry and this year's situation, the consumption and steady growth sectors are worthy of attention.

Ping An Securities: It is recommended to focus on the three major directions of industrial upgrading

　　In terms of structure, the current mid- and long-term driving forces are more worthy of attention than short-term factors. It is recommended to focus on three major directions for industrial upgrading: first, technological innovation, including high-end manufacturing and digital economy; second, green transformation related sectors; Adjustment, the market expects a marginal improvement in the consumer sector.

Industrial Securities: Focus on five directions of technological innovation

　　Long-term focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation: new energy, next-generation information and communication technology, high-end manufacturing, biomedicine, and military industry.

Huajin Securities: the key direction of domestic economic restructuring

　　In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to focus on the key directions of domestic economic restructuring, such as the new energy industry chain, big technology, big finance, and national defense and military industries.

Yuekai Securities: Focus on dual-mainline structured investment opportunities

　　It is recommended to pay attention to the dual-mainline structured investment opportunities: stick to the allocation opportunities of high-prosperity and high-growth sectors.

Focus on exploring high-quality low-end products, especially low-sucking opportunities in large consumer sectors.

Guosheng Securities: Layout around three main lines

　　(1) Short-term offline consumption and travel chains may be affected by emotions. The core contradiction of A-shares is inside but not outside. Under the stable growth force and currency and credit bi-stability trends, the medium-term continue to be optimistic about the restoration of value stocks, and big consumption is recommended. Food and beverage, consumer services, low valuations focus on banks, state-owned enterprise developers and power operations; (2) New infrastructure development direction, the first to promote new energy infrastructure: wind and solar, energy storage, UHV; (3) upstream cost reversal Auto parts, machinery, and independent mainline military industry.

Guoyuan Securities: Deploying delivery, retail, and leisure services

　　It is recommended that investors consider the layout of delivery, retail, and leisure services.

Even if the new variant of the epidemic brings pressure, it is believed that it will only postpone the recovery of these industries rather than prevent them from recovering.

Guosen Securities: Focus on the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors

　　On the price side, as the commodity rise comes to an end and the pig cycle rebounds, the PPI and CPI scissors gap will narrow. From historical experience, the downstream consumption, real estate, medicine and other sectors will out of excess returns during the period when the PPI and CPI scissors gap narrows. At the same time, there is a high probability that the superimposed demand side will continue to decline marginally. It is still recommended to pay attention to the consumption and pharmaceutical sectors that have countercyclical properties and are relatively fully adjusted in the early stage.

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)