Can domestic prices keep running smoothly under the pressure of global inflation?

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, November 26 -

　　Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and An Bei

　　Recently, global inflationary pressures have risen.

In contrast, my country's prices are generally operating within a reasonable range, but the prices of some livelihood commodities and daily consumer goods have risen.

　　In the context of economic globalization, what impact will the continued global inflationary pressure have on my country's price trends?

Can my country keep prices running smoothly?

Can domestic prices keep running smoothly?

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.5% year-on-year. Although the increase was 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, it was still below the expected target of macro-control, and the consumer market supply and demand were basically stable.

　　Recently, prices in many parts of the world have risen significantly. For example, in October, the U.S. CPI rose to a 31-year high, and the Eurozone tied the highest level in history. Some economies have shown varying degrees of inflation.

　　"The root cause of this round of global inflation is the loose fiscal and monetary policies implemented by the major developed economies represented by the United States, and the supply chain disorder caused by the disorderly prevention and control of the epidemic." said Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy, Development Research Center of the State Council .

　　In addition, the imbalance between global energy supply and demand has further intensified.

European natural gas prices once soared 10 times, and crude oil prices climbed to more than $80 per barrel, further pushing up global inflation.

　　my country is actively coordinating and promoting epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and vigorously maintaining the stable operation of the global industrial chain supply chain; at the same time, it adheres to a prudent monetary policy, scientifically grasps the strength, rhythm and focus of the policy, and resolutely does not engage in "overwhelming flooding"-style strengthening. Stimulus, ensuring adequate supply and stable prices of important livelihood commodities and basic energy, has become an important "stabilizer" of global prices.

　　According to analysis by industry insiders, the impact of loose policies and supply bottlenecks may continue, and it is expected that global inflationary pressures will continue for some time.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned earlier that the upside risks of global inflation have intensified, and there are huge uncertainties in the outlook for inflation.

　　"Inflation risks are biased upwards, which will bring certain input pressure to my country's price operation, but the current total supply and demand in my country is basically balanced, and the money supply basically matches the nominal economic growth rate. There is a solid foundation for maintaining the overall stable operation of prices." Wang Likun said. .

　　Guo Liyan, Director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, analyzed that with the precise implementation of cross-cyclical macro-control measures, the effects of deepening supply-side structural reforms continue to be released, the coordination of economic work is further enhanced, and the supply and demand cycle of the national economy, industry cycle, and market The circulation will be smoother, and the foundation for stabilizing the overall price level will be firmer.

Can the prices of important livelihood commodities remain basically stable?

　　Pork is 24.18 yuan per kilogram, live crucian carp is 20.33 yuan per kilogram, green pepper is 7.21 yuan per kilogram, cauliflower is 7.29 yuan per kilogram... According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the wholesale prices of most agricultural products across the country rose slightly from November 12 to 19.

　　According to analysis by industry insiders, mainly affected by flood conditions and seasonal consumption factors, coupled with the continued upward pressure on commodity prices to be transmitted to some daily consumer goods, the price increase has expanded. However, in the long run, my country’s important livelihood commodities are in sufficient supply and stable supply The price is sufficient.

　　Price trends are mainly affected by supply and demand.

From the perspective of current supply fundamentals, there is sufficient supply of food, vegetables, pork and other livelihood commodities, and there is no basis for substantial price increases.

　　"There is goods in the ground"-Both summer grains and early rice have increased production, and a bumper harvest of autumn grains is a foregone conclusion; the vegetable area in the country is 103 million mu, an increase of 4 million mu compared to the same period last year; the number of newborn piglets will be maintained at more than 30 million per month. It is expected this year From the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, the number of fat pigs on the market will increase significantly.

　　"Stock in the warehouse"-the current total grain inventory is at a historical high, and wheat inventory can meet consumer demand for more than one year; 36 large and medium-sized cities in the main urban areas and market volatile areas have the ability to guarantee the inventory of finished grain and oil for more than 15 days; Frozen pork reserves at all levels can meet the consumption of urban permanent residents for about 10 days.

　　"From the perspective of transportation and distribution, although it has entered winter, snowy weather in some areas, and epidemics in some areas, my country's domestic sales, road transportation, and terminal distribution are all very smooth. There is no need to worry about unstable supply and price increases due to poor transportation. Wait for the question." Guo Liyan said.

　　The reporter learned that with the implementation of various measures to ensure supply and price stabilization, and the gradual completion of the conversion of autumn and winter vegetables, coupled with the recent sunny weather and rising temperature, the market of leafy vegetables has accelerated, and vegetable prices have fallen, among which the previous increase has been larger. The price of fresh and tender vegetables dropped significantly.

Will the increase in commodity prices be transmitted to other consumer goods?

　　Unlike the “vegetable basket” prices that rose moderately, prices for industrial producers continued to rise.

In October, the national producer price index (PPI) rose by 13.5% year-on-year.

Since the beginning of this year, my country's PPI growth rate has continued to expand.

　　"Due to the import impact of rising international commodity prices and the tight supply of some domestic industries such as coal and metals, PPI growth has expanded." said Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

　　Affected by this, many industries such as home improvement have recently experienced price increases, indicating that the pressure of rising prices of bulk commodities is being transmitted to some terminal consumer products.

Industry insiders generally predict that the year-on-year increase in PPI in October is likely to have reached the highest value of the year.

　　In response to the sharp increase in coal prices in the early stage, relevant departments are vigorously promoting the supply and stability of coal and other commodities. National coal production and market supply continue to increase, coal storage in power plants and ports has accelerated, and the spot price of thermal coal has fallen sharply.

　　Up to now, the main contract price of thermal coal futures of the Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange, the spot closing price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port, and the coal mine opening price in the main production areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia have all fallen to varying degrees.

　　Driven by the sharp drop in coal prices, the prices of steel, aluminum, glass, paper pulp, methanol and coal chemical products have also fallen sharply recently, and the upward pressure on the prices of some raw materials has been significantly eased.

　　Strengthen the two-way adjustment of supply and demand, organize the release of multiple batches of national reserves; strengthen market supervision to curb excessive speculation; do a good job in anticipation management, research and timely introduce some continuation policies after the expiration of favorable enterprise policies... my country has a wealth of policy tools to respond International bulk commodity prices have risen sharply, and some results and experience have been achieved, which to a large extent avoided the transmission of bulk commodity prices to other daily consumer goods.

　　Although the prices of some bulk commodities and raw materials are still operating at high levels, due to the long industrial chain and fierce market competition, the transmission influence is gradually attenuated, and the changes in the prices of terminal consumer goods are relatively limited.

"From the recent price increase of some consumer products, most companies have absorbed part of the price increase pressure on their own, and the price increase of terminal products is not large, so there is no need to worry too much about the impact of raw material prices." Guo Liyan said.

　　Looking forward to the latter part of this year and next year, the supply of goods and services in the consumer sector in my country is abundant, especially important livelihood commodities such as grains, oils, meat, eggs, milk, fresh fruits and vegetables, as well as coal and other basic energy supplies, which can better meet the basic needs of the people. , The overall price level will continue to maintain a stable operation trend.