In contrast to the European Central Bank (ECB), which considers the current rise in inflation rates to be “transitory”, that is to say temporary, Commerzbank, conversely, expects the inflation rate to fall only temporarily in the coming year.
"After that there will be a slow drift upwards, with a clear direction," said Jörg Krämer, Commerzbank's chief economist, on Friday in his annual outlook.
"In a few years, inflation rates will then be well over 2 percent."
Christian Siedenbiedel
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Krämer criticized the fact that the ECB had arithmetically financed the budget deficits of all euro countries with its bond purchases since the beginning of the pandemic: "With this, the ECB wants, among other things, to seal off the euro bond market from influences from the United States." America has "long had an inflation problem" and rose there not only the prices that have something to do with the corona pandemic - but also the rents, for example.
Gastronomy sales are falling again significantly
Commerzbank expects the yields on US government bonds with a ten-year term to rise to 2.1 percent in mid-2022.
The yields of German Bunds, on the other hand, are likely to remain negative and could at best “touch zero” in the middle of the year as a reaction to interest rate hikes in America.
In terms of economic growth, Commerzbank expects a technical recession for Germany in the winter half of 2021.
Sales in the catering industry have been falling again since the summer.
"More and more regions will be affected by the lockdown," said Krämer.
But even for next winter he predicts a “corona” for economic growth.
In 2022, the gross domestic product in Germany will increase by 3 percent, in Europe by 3.5 percent and in the United States by 3.8 percent.
The German Dax share index will, also driven by the continued loosening of the ECB's monetary policy, stand at 17,200 points by the end of 2022.