"The crops and flowers are all dependent on fertilizer."

China is a big fertilizer consumer in the world, but at the same time it is also exporting a large amount of fertilizer to the main grain producing areas of the world.

　　According to customs statistics, from January to October 2021, China exported a total of 29.341 million tons of various fertilizers, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%.

The total export of various fertilizers in 2020 is 29.17 million tons.

　　In the first ten months of this year, China's fertilizer export destination countries (or regions) reached 160, concentrated in major agricultural production countries and China's major agricultural import source countries.

In terms of fertilizer exports, Brazil ranks first and India ranks second. These two countries account for 35.3% of total exports.

　　At the same time, Brazil is China's largest source of agricultural imports, and India is China's largest source of rice imports and the main source of cotton imports.

The global distribution of the "grain" of grain

　　Fertilizers, known as the "grain" of food, are materials used by farmers for agricultural production to provide nutrients for crop growth and regulate the soil environment, including inorganic fertilizers and organic fertilizers.

　　Since Asia surpassed North America to become the world's largest fertilizer production area in the late 1990s, the overall distribution of the world's fertilizer production areas has remained unchanged. Asia has always been the world's largest area of ​​fertilizer production, and North America has ranked second. , Europe followed closely.

　　In 2005, China became the world's largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer.

China, Russia, the United States, and India are the world's major producers of urea and synthetic ammonia.

Phosphates are distributed in most parts of the world, but the economic and mineral development capabilities of different countries affect their production.

China's phosphate fertilizer production capacity accounts for about 40% of the world's phosphate fertilizer production, and its output accounts for 35% of the global phosphate fertilizer production. Its production capacity and output rank first in the world.

Other major phosphate fertilizer producers are Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Russia.

　　The production of potash fertilizer is relatively concentrated, mainly distributed in the United States and Canada in North America, Russia and Belarus in Eastern Europe, and China in Asia.

Canada and Russia are the world's first and second production and export countries respectively.

China's potash fertilizer development is mainly in Qinghai, and there are certain potash resources in other places, but the quality is poor and the mining economy is not high.

　　Regarding China's already formed pattern of importing a large amount of grain and cotton while exporting a large amount of fertilizer to the main grain producing areas of the world, it is related to the global industrial division of labor and the industrial systems of various countries.

　　Lin Guofa, the research director of Breck·Agricultural Products Collection Network, told China Business News that on the one hand, agricultural production requires a large amount of chemical fertilizers, especially sugarcane, rice, corn, and cotton, which are in high demand.

Taking urea as an example, an average of 50-100 kg per mu of sugarcane, 30-50 kg/mu for corn, and 15-30 kg/mu for soybeans.

Of course, the actual amount of chemical fertilizer applied is not only related to crop varieties, but also related to the fertility of the cultivated land and fertilizer utilization.

　　On the other hand, due to the backward production level of coal, oil and gas chemical and fertilizer minerals, India, Brazil, Southeast Asia and Africa are the main fertilizer importing countries or regions.

From short supply to large export

　　Before becoming a major fertilizer exporter in the world, China also experienced a period when the supply of chemical fertilizers was in short supply.

It was not until 2000 that the self-sufficiency of China's chemical fertilizer industry was initially formed, and the fertilizer industry system was basically formed.

　　From 2005 to 2015, the amount of fertilizer application and grain output showed a relatively consistent growth trend, both of which were gradually increasing.

It is also from 2004 that with the support of the Central Committee’s No. 1 Document, China’s total grain output has set off the prelude to the "Eighteen Lianfeng".

　　It is worth noting that since 2004, the output of chemical fertilizers has exceeded the application rate.

From 2010 to 2015, the problem of overcapacity in the fertilizer industry began to become prominent.

By 2020, the output of chemical fertilizers will be 54.96 million tons, down 26% from 74.32 million tons in 2015.

In 2020, China has also successfully achieved the expected goal of reducing chemical fertilizers and increasing efficiency of "fertilizer utilization rate of major crops reaching more than 40%".

　　Li Bo, deputy director of the Information Department of the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association, told China Business News that the reduction of fertilizer products has made it impossible to sell traditionally large-scale products. New fertilizers that can increase utilization and improve quality have begun to be favored, prompting companies Continuously upgrade products.

　　In contrast, the growth of China's fertilizer exports is quite eye-catching.

In 2002, 1.34 million tons of chemical fertilizers were exported.

In 2020, it will reach 29.17 million tons.

This means that in less than 20 years, China's fertilizer exports have increased by nearly 21 times.

　　Li Bo said that exports are mainly to balance low-peak season production and reduce equipment operating costs.

　　Natural gas is an important raw material for nitrogen fertilizers. Since the beginning of this year, the price of chemical fertilizers has risen sharply due to the soaring prices of commodities such as oil and natural gas.

At the same time, on October 11, the General Administration of Customs of China issued the "Announcement", and from October 15 onwards, strict legal inspections on fertilizer exports will be implemented.

Legal inspection is more stringent than commodity inspection and takes longer.

　　Zhai Jidong, vice president of Kingenta International and executive director of IFA, believes that the fertilizer industry is a highly sensitive industry with high energy resource consumption, large environmental impact, and large total carbon emissions. It is necessary to balance production capacity and satisfy domestic market supply. Reduce exports Effective measures to reduce the pressure on energy and resource supply and reduce environmental impact.

　　He pointed out that with the gradual implementation of customs legal inspection policies and the launch of customs actions in various places, fertilizer exports will be greatly reduced, and domestic fertilizer prices will also enter a downward channel, and there may be a price inflection point.

　　Author: Shao Haipeng