To support those affected by the new corona and revitalize the economy, the government has decided on new economic measures, including a per capita benefit of 100,000 yen for people under the age of 18. ..
The total amount of fiscal spending is more than 55 trillion yen, the largest ever.
The government held an extraordinary cabinet meeting on the 19th to prevent the spread of the new corona, resume economic and social activities under the "with corona", prepare for the next crisis, and open up a "new capitalism" that will open up a future society. We have officially decided on new economic measures with four pillars, such as start-up, disaster prevention / mitigation, and promotion of national toughness.
Specifically, it includes a benefit equivalent to 100,000 yen per person for those under the age of 18, and as an income limit, households with an annual income of 9.6 million yen or more are fixed. It is excluded from the target under the conditions.
It also includes payments up to 2.5 million yen to businesses whose sales have dropped significantly, and measures to curb the sharp rise in retail prices of gasoline and other products in light of high crude oil prices.
Furthermore, as a measure that leads to growth strategies and economic security, in order to raise the level of research at universities, we will start managing university funds on a scale of 10 trillion yen and establish a fund to support domestic production of semiconductors.
The new economic measures will be the largest ever, with national and local expenditures of about 49.7 trillion yen and total fiscal expenditures including FILP of about 55.7 trillion yen.
Furthermore, the scale of the business, including private expenditures associated with countermeasures, is about 78.9 trillion yen.
The government plans to include 31.9 trillion yen in fiscal spending in this year's supplementary budget and aim to pass it at the extraordinary Diet session to be convened on the 6th of next month.
Prime Minister Kishida "Direct economic effect expected to be about 5.6% in terms of GDP"
Regarding new economic measures, Prime Minister Kishida said that the direct economic effect is expected to be about 5.6% in terms of GDP = gross domestic product, and he is fully prepared to maximize the effect on the Minister in charge of economic revitalization Yamagiwa. I instructed to take the correspondence of.
At the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy held at the Prime Minister's Office, Prime Minister Kishida said, "We will provide thorough support to those who have been severely affected by the Corona disaster, and will be new with growth strategies and distribution strategies. It's about initiating capitalism. "
On top of that, the direct economic effect of the measures is expected to be about 5.6% in terms of GDP = gross domestic product. I'll get it on track. "
He instructed the Minister of Economic Revitalization, Yamagiwa, to take all possible measures to maximize the effects in cooperation with the ministers in charge of each policy.
Let's take a look at the details of the new economic measures for each of the four pillars.
Prevention of spread of new coronavirus
The first pillar is "preventing the spread of the new coronavirus".
Positioning it as an urgent and most important issue, it states that it will "strengthen the medical care provision system that can respond even if the infectivity doubles in the future."
Specifically, by dedicating beds in public hospitals and other facilities to the new corona, and by utilizing a system that can centrally grasp the status of medical institutions nationwide, we have secured beds in the event of re-emergence of infection. We have decided to build a system that can reliably operate more than 80% of the hospital beds.
In addition, it also states that booster vaccination will be free of charge, and that the government will purchase approved oral drugs to secure the required amount with the aim of putting them into practical use by the end of the year.
In addition, support for living and business, which is in a difficult situation due to the corona, is included in the first pillar.
We will provide a benefit equivalent to 100,000 yen per person for those under the age of 18.
Of this amount, 50,000 yen will be paid in cash by the end of the year using the child allowance system, and the remaining 50,000 yen will be used for child-rearing-related products and services for the graduation and admission season next spring. It is supposed to be basically paid.
However, there is an income limit for benefits, and households with an annual income of 9.6 million yen or more are excluded from the target under certain conditions.
In addition, 100,000 yen will be paid in cash per household to households exempt from residence tax.
On the other hand, in support of businesses, we will provide businesses whose sales have decreased significantly due to the corona damage to the amount of the decrease in sales in a form that does not limit the region or industry.
The maximum amount of benefits is 2.5 million yen for corporations and 500,000 yen for sole proprietors, depending on the scale of the business.
Resuming and preparing for socio-economic activities under "With Corona"
The second pillar is "resuming socio-economic activities under'with corona'and preparing for the next crisis."
While encouraging vaccination of all applicants, "Go To Travel", a measure to stimulate tourism demand, is specialized after considering ways to avoid congestion on weekends and reviewing it to expand its use to small and medium-sized hotels and inns. He said that he would prepare for the reopening, taking into account the opinions of the house.
Launch of "new capitalism" that opens up the future society
The third pillar is "the launch of'new capitalism'that opens up the future society."
As a growth strategy, in order to raise the research level of universities to the highest level in the world, we will start managing a university fund of 10 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year, and we will develop domestic semiconductor manufacturing bases to strengthen economic security. It includes the establishment of a fund to encourage them.
In addition, as a distribution strategy, we have stated that we will drastically strengthen tax support for companies that raise wages and expand subsidies to support the response to the increase in the minimum wage.
Furthermore, in order to drastically review the state of public prices, we aim to raise wages by about 3% in stages for nurses who are in charge of corona medical care, etc. It will be done from February.
We have decided to take necessary measures to raise the income of people working in the field such as long-term care and childcare by about 3%.
In addition, as part of support measures for child-rearing households and young couples, we also include subsidies for a certain amount when acquiring a house with high energy-saving performance.
Ensuring safety and security such as disaster prevention / mitigation and promotion of national toughness
The fourth pillar is "ensuring safety and security by promoting disaster prevention / mitigation and national resilience."
While strengthening preparations for disasters such as heavy rains and earthquakes, we will continue to do our utmost to recover from the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Expert "Cost-effectiveness is limited"
今回の経済対策が日本経済に与える影響について野村総合研究所の木内登英エグゼクティブ・エコノミストは、日本のGDP＝国内総生産をおよそ16兆円、率にして年間3％程度押し上げると試算していますが「先に規模ありき」という印象で費用対効果は限定的になると指摘しています。
まず、18歳以下を対象とする10万円相当の給付については「試算では個人消費を6600億円程度押し上げる計算で一定の効果はあるが、かなりの部分が貯蓄に回ると考えられ、経済対策としての費用対効果は高くない」と分析しています。
そのうえで「経済対策だけはなく困っている人への支援策も必要だが、給付の対象が広すぎて本当に困っている人に届く制度設計になっていないのが問題だ。例えば、コロナで打撃を受けている飲食、宿泊、旅行関連で働く人などに、ピンポイントでお金を配る仕組みでないと支援にはつながりにくく、子どもがいるかいないかで対象を分けるのはおかしい気がする」と話しています。
そして「本来であれば、コロナ対策や物価高対策に支出を集約すべきだったが、それ以外の経済安全保障や先端産業支援など緊急性のない長期的な視点の施策も多く盛り込まれていて、経済対策の規模を競って国民にアピールする『先に規模ありき』という印象が否めない。財源の議論も素通りになってしまっているのではないか」と指摘しています。
一方、売り上げが減った事業者に対する最大250万円の給付については「休業要請などに協力した飲食店に対しては協力金が支払われてきたが、それ以外の業種への支援が手薄になっている。所得収入が落ちた中小企業を地域と業種を問わず支援することは必要で、事業者への給付金は評価できる」と話しています。
On top of that, Mr. Kiuchi said, "In order to realize the" virtuous circle of growth and distribution "that the Kishida Cabinet advocates, it is necessary to change the economic situation where income does not rise easily. However, wages are temporarily paid in terms of taxation. It is harmful to try to raise and control wages. We should focus our policies on growth strategies and structural reforms that naturally raise wages. "
Expert "Needs sustainable measures"
Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Daiichi Seimei Keizai Kenkyusho, points out that sustainable measures are needed, saying that the effects of this economic measure will not last long.
Mr. Kumano first said, "Benefits are particularly noticeable in this economic measure, but I think that it will actually lead to consumption and demand very little. Revenge consumption is not long-lived while the infection is converging. It is expected that Go To Travel will be reviewed to stimulate demand through tourism support, which will be effective in the weakened tourism, entertainment, and food and beverage industries. "
On top of that, regarding the wage increase that the Kishida Cabinet is aiming for, "I agree with the indispensable theme of supporting wage increases as a distribution strategy, but many small and medium-sized enterprises do not have the capacity to raise wages in the first place, and the benefits of tax reform alone will not be sufficient. Although it was not enough for economic measures, it is important to come up with a growth strategy for small and medium-sized enterprises with a second arrow, a third arrow, etc. in the budget for the next fiscal year, because wages cannot be raised without a growth strategy. "
In addition, Mr. Kumano said, "It is necessary to give a proper explanation to the people about the huge expenditure of 55 trillion yen, and it is not enough to just say" because I won the election. "I am trying to create Japan in the future, but it is huge for the future. It would be a contradiction if we made a lot of money, so I want it to be a catalyst for getting economic growth on track and increasing future income. "