Sino-Singapore Jingwei, November 19 (Wang Yongle) Today (19th) at 24:00, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.
Comprehensive agencies predict that domestic refined oil prices are expected to drop in this round of price adjustment cycles.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that this may be the fourth drop in refined oil prices during the year, and it has been nearly three months since the last drop.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
In this round of pricing cycle, international oil prices fluctuated mainly in the range, and US oil gained and lost the US$80 mark.
As of the close of November 17, local time, WTI December crude oil futures closed down 2.40 US dollars, or 2.97%, to 78.36 US dollars per barrel; Brent January crude oil futures closed down 2.15 US dollars, or 2.61%, to 80.28 US dollars per barrel .
Earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its monthly energy report that crude oil prices are expected to fall by US$10 per barrel in 2022; crude oil production in the United States is expected to increase substantially.
In addition, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 2.101 million barrels in the week to November 12 (last Friday), which is expected to increase by 1.398 million barrels.
Meng Peng, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that after entering this pricing cycle, on the one hand, the shortage of supply in the crude oil market will still support oil prices. There are concerns about the strategic oil reserves, and the European and American crude oil futures prices have shown a fluctuating trend as a whole, and the average price has declined compared with the previous cycle.
Affected by this, the estimated rate of change of domestic crude oil has deepened within the negative value. At 24:00 on November 19, the retail price limit of domestic refined oil will be lowered.
According to calculations by Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the close of November 17, the reference crude oil change rate for the ninth working day in China is -2.01%. It is estimated that gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 95 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price increase of 92 gasoline and 0.07 yuan/liter, 0 The number of diesel oil is reduced by RMB 0.08/ton.
Wang Tao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, pointed out that the WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices have seen softness. The market has repeatedly weighed the status of energy shortages and the possibility of the US releasing strategic reserves of crude oil to intervene in the market. The weekly futures show a downward revision trend.
According to data from Zhongyu Information, as of the 10th working day of this round, Zhongyu crude oil valuation was 81.853 lower than the benchmark price by 1.425, a decrease of 1.71%, corresponding to a 100 yuan/ton reduction in refined oil prices.
According to the estimation of the 50L capacity of the general family car fuel tank, filling a tank of 92# gasoline will save about 3.82 yuan compared with the previous one.
According to statistics from Sino-Singapore Jingwei, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 21 rounds of adjustments, with a total of "14 ups, three downs, and four strands". Gasoline prices have been raised by 2,000 yuan/ton, and diesel prices have been raised by 1,925 yuan/ton.
If this adjustment is implemented, the domestic refined oil product price will be adjusted in the form of "14 up, 4 down, and 4 stranded".
Meng Peng analyzed that after the implementation of this reduction, the cost of oil consumption for consumers has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the year.
However, domestic gasoline demand has entered a relatively off-season and the supply is relatively sufficient. Therefore, the wholesale price of domestic gasoline has shown a downward trend recently, and the wholesale and retail price gap has increased significantly.
Correspondingly, the recent increase in domestic gas station discounts will ease consumers' pressure on oil costs to a certain extent.
According to the "ten working days" principle, the next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on December 3, 2021.
At present, institutions have different opinions on the direction of refined oil price adjustments.
According to US media reports, US President Biden asked federal regulators to investigate whether oil and gas companies had conducted "illegal operations" on November 17 local time to profit from high gasoline prices.
Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the United States intends to take measures to control high oil prices. Negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue will be resumed at the end of the month. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments is likely to fall.
“At present, the United States is actively urging Japan, South Korea, India and other major oil-consuming countries to release strategic inventories to help reduce oil prices. Affected by the bad news, the international oil market is speculative and short, and the recent trend is weak. According to the current crude oil benchmark price estimates, refined oil products will be on December 3 There is a chance that the price adjustment will be lowered again or stranded.” Wang Tao also said that the strategic inventory of crude oil is sensitive to the situation, or it is interpreted by the international market as a tight crude oil supply and demand, and there is a possibility of unexpected speculation.
If such a market occurs, it may reverse the price adjustment window and drive it to move in the positive direction.
Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that crude oil is likely to stabilize and rebound in the next cycle, and it initially predicts that refined oil prices will rise or be stranded.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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