<Anchor> This is a
friendly economic time. Today (16th), I will be with reporter Kim Hye-min. A while ago, the OECD announced that each country has now released a report on the mid- to long-term economic growth rate.
<Reporter>
Due to COVID-19, the global economic flow is often going to unexpected places these days.
Many people are also interested in the report of the World Economic Organization because they invest a lot in foreign stocks.
Here, not only the US and Europe, but also the future economic prospects of Korea are presented in detail. I wanted to introduce this to you someday, but recently there has been a controversy related to this report.
Immediately after the report was published, it was reported in the domestic media. However, many of the articles were titled "Potential growth rate of 0%, the lowest in the world".
So, some chose to choose only the material that the media wanted to write. Such criticism has come.
<Anchor>
Then, the media mainly dealt with the title. So, is this report of 'lowest potential growth rate' wrong?
<Reporter>
No. Neither the media nor critics of this can be said to be wrong. It is easy to see if you look at the original OECD data. Let me show you this report table.
It is coming out now, and the potential growth rate of several countries is coming out. Divide the time and show the figures.
Among them, the medium-term potential growth rate for 10 years from 2020 to 2030 and the long-term potential growth rate for 30 years from 2030 to 2060 were predicted.
If you look at Korea here, it will grow by 1.9% by 2030. It is said to grow by 0.8% over the next 30 years.
Compared to the OECD average, the potential growth rate to 2030 is higher than the OECD average of 1.3%. But for the next 30 years, Canada is tied for last among 38 countries.
To summarize, the media outlets only highlighted the long-term outlook and reported it. Criticisms such as why do you leave out the medium-term outlook and whether there is an intention?
<Anchor>
Then, let's compare these two medium-term and long-term forecasts together. Then, if we summarize, the potential growth rate for 10 years is a little high, but after that it drops sharply. It's like this. How can you analyze this?
<Reporter>
First, let me briefly explain the potential growth rate. It is the maximum level of production that a country can achieve without spurring inflation.
As I said before, in Korea, it was 3.8% until 2007, and has been declining sharply since then.
Let's compare it with neighboring countries. Japan's potential growth rate is much lower than Korea's at present, but it is predicted to rise little by little in the future. America is falling only very little.
The reason why Korea's long-term potential growth rate is falling so sharply can be seen right away by looking at other figures.
The labor productivity and potential employment rate per capita are similar to those of Korea and the OECD average, but there is only one thing that has significantly decreased in Korea, which is the 'Ratio of the Economically Active Population'.
So, there is a sharp shortage of people who can work without having children, which harms Korea's dynamism and lowers its potential growth rate.
<Anchor>
So, the birth rate in Korea is very low. The fact that there are very few children to be born in the future has a very bad effect on the Korean economy in the long run. You can sort it out like this. But what I'm curious about is that Japan has already started an aging society faster than ours, and it's already in place. But why do we have such a situation where our potential growth rate is further reversed?
<Reporter>
That's right. Japan entered an aging society before Korea. So, so far, the growth rate has been low. And in the future, we will be like this. Let's hear from the experts.
[Kim Kwang-seok / Adjunct Professor, Hanyang University (Head of Economic Research, Korea Institute of Economics and Industry): In Korea, the aging rate is rising the fastest.
It can be seen that the aging rate is accelerating at the fastest rate, and since Japan has already advanced in aging, there is no longer any factor that will reduce the potential growth rate.]
Then, it is natural to increase the potential growth rate even now, but it A proactive response is required.
There must also be alternatives for older people to be able to support themselves.
The short-term and one-off jobs that the government is offering now don't really help much here.
Experts also advised that efforts should be made to bring in a variety of human resources from abroad.