October Economic "Report Card" Released to Continue the Steady Recovery Trend
New employment in cities and towns across the country completed the annual target and task ahead of schedule
Yesterday, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in October.
Data show that in October, my country’s main macroeconomic indicators were generally within a reasonable range, and structural adjustments and people’s livelihood guarantees were strong and effective. From January to October, 11.33 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, completing the annual target task ahead of schedule.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of National Economic Comprehensive Statistics, said that despite some risks and challenges in the next stage, the overall stable economic operation and the gradual improvement in the quality of development are expected to be maintained, and the economy will remain stable and recover. .
trend
Main macroeconomic indicators maintain rapid growth
From a cumulative point of view, my country’s main macroeconomic indicators have maintained relatively rapid growth.
In the first 10 months, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.9% year-on-year, the service industry production index increased by 15.1% year-on-year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 14.9% year-on-year, and the total volume of imports and exports of goods increased by 22.2% year-on-year.
In a single month, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in October increased by an average of 5.2% in two years, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month.
The service industry production index increased by an average of 5.5% in two years, which was also 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month.
The effectiveness of market guarantees is evident.
In October, my country's raw coal output increased by 4% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from a decline in the previous month to an increase. The output of metal containers and integrated circuits, which are in short supply in the market, increased by 76.2% and 22.2% respectively.
The increase in freight volume and turnover of railways and waterways has increased compared with the previous month.
In addition, Fu Linghui said that the national autumn grain harvest in October is coming to an end. Judging from the actual harvest in various regions, autumn grain production is expected to increase.
Based on an increase of 5.93 billion catties in summer grain production and 1.45 billion catties in early rice production over the previous year, the country's total grain output is expected to reach more than 1.3 trillion catties.
data
11.33 million new jobs in cities and towns nationwide in the first ten months
At the same time, employment and people's livelihood are effectively guaranteed.
In terms of employment, the policy of stabilizing employment continued to be exerted, and the employment situation was generally stable.
From January to October, 11.33 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, completing the annual target tasks ahead of schedule.
In October, the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns across the country was 4.9%, the same as the previous month, and a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year.
Among them, the urban surveyed unemployment rate of the 25-59 year old employment population is 4.2%, which is at a relatively low level.
In terms of people's livelihood, the market for goods and services is adequately supplied, and consumer prices have risen moderately.
In October, consumer prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year, of which food prices fell by 2.4%.
The production of basic consumer goods has grown steadily, and the sales momentum is good.
In October, the added value of the consumer goods manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, of which the added value of the food manufacturing industry accelerated by 4 percentage points.
The retail sales of grain, oil, food, and beverages in units above designated size increased by 9.9% and 8.8% year-on-year, effectively meeting the needs of residents.
Compared
PPI rose 13.5% year-on-year in October
In October, the national ex-factory price of industrial producers (hereinafter referred to as PPI) rose by 13.5% year-on-year, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.
Looking at the overall situation of PPI, the increase in PPI is mainly due to the increase in the prices of production materials, especially the prices of upstream industries.
In October, the price of the means of production in the PPI rose by 17.9% year-on-year, which affected the PPI by 13.36 percentage points, accounting for 99% of the overall PPI increase.
Among them, the prices of extractive industries and raw material industries rose by 66.5% and 25.7% respectively, which was significantly higher than the increase in the prices of processing industries and subsistence materials in the middle and lower reaches.
Fu Linghui said that from the perspective of influencing factors, the expansion of PPI growth is mainly due to two factors: First, the imported impact of rising international commodity prices.
Recently, international energy supply and demand have been tight, and prices have continued to rise.
In October, international energy prices rose by 16.1% month-on-month, which affected the price increase in the domestic petrochemical industry.
In October, the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries in the PPI rose by 53% year-on-year, and the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing rose by 31.5%.
The second is the impact of tight supply in some domestic coal and metal industries.
In October, the price of coal mining and washing industry in the PPI increased by 103.7% year-on-year, and the price of steel increased by 39.9%.
Fu Linghui said that in the face of rising international commodity prices and tight supply in some domestic industries, the central government attaches great importance to this issue, and relevant departments have introduced a series of measures to increase market security and price stability.
At present, the effect is gradually showing, the supply of major energy products is also increasing, and the price situation has improved.
Judging from the price situation in the circulation sector in late October and early November, coal prices have seen a relatively significant decline from the previous month.
Interpretation
Affected by short-term shocks, the high PPI growth rate is a staged situation
Fu Linghui said that the PPI increase in October was not a record high. Since my country began to conduct PPI survey statistics in 1993, the PPI increase has exceeded 20% at the peak in the early 1990s.
He said that in general, due to the impact of the third quarter of the epidemic and flood conditions, my country’s economic growth has slowed down. At the same time, the import impact of rising international commodity prices and the impact of some domestic energy and raw materials products The tight supply has caused an increase in the ex-factory price of industrial producers, which seems to have some signs of stagflation.
However, this situation is caused by short-term shock factors and is a phased situation.
He said that from the perspective of economic growth, with the gradual weakening of short-term factors restricting the economy, economic recovery is gradually emerging.
Judging from the situation of the main indicators in October, the two-year average growth rate of the main indicators of production and demand has mostly rebounded.
At the same time, the market's efforts to ensure supply and price stability are increasing, and the tight supply of some energy products is gradually improving. These are all conducive to stable economic growth.
From the perspective of prices, although the imported impact of rising international energy prices continues, the domestic efforts to increase production and supply and increase financial and financial support for enterprises are all conducive to lowering production prices. The upward pressure reduces the transmission of PPI to CPI.
At the same time, from the perspective of consumer prices, the overall increase is still relatively moderate.
Text / reporter Dong Xin Zhang Qin