The GDP announced on the 15th will reveal how much domestic consumption and production has taken place and how much the economy has grown as a whole during the three months from July to September.
Looking at the data, during this period, a state of emergency was declared due to the rapid spread of the new coronavirus, consumption was sluggish, and production of automobiles and other products fell sharply due to the effects of global semiconductor shortages.
Overall consumption is sluggish due to the spread of infection
This graph is the result of a survey that looks at consumption trends based on credit card usage information.
During this period, the number of people infected per day in Japan exceeded 25,000, and the infection spread rapidly, and priority measures such as declaration of emergency and prevention of spread were issued in various places.
For this reason, it can be seen that "service consumption" including transportation, travel, and eating out continues to decline compared to before the spread of the infection.
“Online mail order” grew significantly due to so-called nesting demand, and “consumption of goods” remained firm, but the decline in “service consumption” could not be filled and overall consumption remained sluggish.
Originally, the economic effects of the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics were expected during this period, but let's take a closer look at the breakdown of how the actual "service consumption" was.
Record low level of foreign guests
First, travel statistics.
It can be seen that the number of guests staying at hotels and inns in Japan has fallen to less than half of what it was before the spread of the infection, despite the summer tourist season.
In particular, the number of foreign guests, who were expected to have an economic effect, continued to be at a record low level of 90% or more compared to two years ago.
Eating out was divided into light and dark.
Fast food captured the demand of people watching the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics at home for take-out and home delivery, and maintained almost the same level of sales as before the spread of the infection.
On the other hand, pubs and pubs fell sharply due to shortened business hours and suspension of alcoholic beverages due to the declaration of emergency, and the expected economic effects could not be obtained.
Corporate production activities Impact of semiconductor shortages and the spread of infections in Southeast Asia ...
A major change from the previous announcement of GDP three months ago is the production activities of companies.
The "Indices of Industrial Production", which represents this, recovered to 99.6 in June, the level before the corona, but fell sharply to 89.5 in September.
In addition to the global shortage of semiconductors, the rapid spread of corona infections in Southeast Asia made it difficult to procure parts and materials.
For this reason, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has revised down the keynote judgment of corporate production activities from "recovering" to "stuck" since August.
Exports shrink rapidly
Exports are also stalling due to reduced production.
The growth rate of exports compared to the same month last year decreased sharply from July to September due to factors such as the reduction in production by automobile manufacturers.
Corporate capital investment is also trending at a high level ...
On the other hand, strong is capital investment by companies aiming to recover from corona.
Looking at the Bank of Japan's Tankan every three months, the amount of capital investment planned by companies that have fallen sharply in Corona has remained at a high level until September in this year and 2021 (yellow line). You can see that.
However, in addition to the stagnation of production activities, the recent soaring prices of raw materials have put pressure on the business performance of many companies, and if the willingness to make capital investment, which accounts for about 20% of the total GDP, declines again, the economic recovery will be far away. There is concern that it may occur.Keywords: