China's New Observation|Crazy Metaverse, New Opportunity to Get Rich?

　　Chinanews.com client, Beijing, November 12 (Reporter Li Jinlei) Recently, Meta Universe has set off a frenzy. Many Chinese and foreign technology companies have rushed in. Related concept stocks in the capital market have skyrocketed. A-shares have been traded in 20 The intraday gains doubled.

　　Such a hot meta universe has also aroused the curiosity of the people.

What is the meta universe?

Will it overturn the human society in the future?

What opportunities will it give birth to?

Will it be the next opportunity to get rich?

What does it mean for human civilization?

　　In this regard, Zuo Pengfei, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Secretary-General of the Information Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, accepted an exclusive interview with the "China New Observation" column of Chinanews.com.

Excerpts from the interview are as follows:

It will take 10-20 years to realize the basic scenarios of the meta universe

Chinanews: The meta-universe is a big fire, but this concept is still relatively unfamiliar to ordinary people. Many people think that the meta-universe is a game. Can you explain in a simple way what is the meta-universe?

What are the misunderstandings in the current market regarding the meta-universe?

Zuo Pengfei: At

present, important concepts such as Metaverse and Blockchain lack a recognized definition, which is a common phenomenon in cutting-edge technology and industrial fields.

Metaverse, as a new thing that is developing rapidly, analyzes it from different perspectives such as technology, perception, economy, and industry, just like observing a polyhedron from different perspectives, it will inevitably draw different conclusions.

　　For example, from a technological perspective, the meta-universe is a 3D virtual space; from the perspective of perception, the meta-universe is an extension and embodiment of neuron perception; from an economic perspective, the meta-universe is a new digital economy that crosses the physical and virtual; From a cognitive perspective, the meta-universe is an understanding of the real world from a machine perspective, and so on.

In fact,

　　In addition to thinking that the metaverse is VR, the current misunderstandings about the metaverse mainly include three categories:

　　One is that the meta universe is a false proposition.

While the current meta-universe boom is surging, many people think that meta-universe is nothing more than a new scam of cutting leek capital. In fact, under the joint promotion of technological evolution and human needs, with the continuous advancement of time, Yuan The maturity of the universe application is only a matter of time.

　　The second is that the realization of the meta-universe scene will be very long.

In fact, from the current computing power conditions, network technology and virtual reality technology development status,

　　The third is that Metaverse is just a game for big companies.

Although large enterprises have certain advantages on the meta-universe competition track, as a new thing,

At the same time, it is easier for start-ups to quickly adapt and integrate innovation in the development process of Metaverse.

The American Facebook company announced that it changed its name to Meta.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Guanguan

The large number of netizens is China’s biggest advantage in the Meta Universe circuit

Chinanews.com: Many technology giants have deployed Meta Universe, and Facebook (Face book) even directly renamed Meta Universe "Meta". Why is the concept of Meta Universe suddenly so popular?

What are the advantages of Chinese companies in the development of Metaverse?

Zuo Pengfei:

There are three main reasons for the sudden explosion of the meta-universe concept in 2021:

　　First, from the perspective of laws and trends, the relevant technologies that support the landing of the meta-universe scene are approaching a technological singularity, and the technological leap effect is taking shape;

　　Second, from the perspective of the development stage of the Internet, we have entered the post-Internet era, and the

. As a carrier of the integration of the virtual world and the real world, Metaverse contains huge development opportunities for enterprises;

　　Third, from the perspective of market pioneers, Roblox, as the first stock of Metaverse, has far exceeded expectations since its listing in March this year, and the positive feedback effect of the market is obvious.

　　The advantages of Chinese companies in the development of Metaverse mainly include three aspects: First, the large scale of netizens.

At present, the number of netizens in China has exceeded 1 billion. The

　　Second, rich innovation experience.

In the past 20 years, the Internet industry has been one of the most competitive industries in China. The competition among enterprises has been fierce for a long time. Only enterprises that are brave in innovation, good at innovation, and willing to innovate can survive.

The innovative experience accumulated through actual combat is also one of the advantages of Chinese enterprises.

　　Third, strong policy support.

Judging from the achievements in the development of my country's digital economy, both the central and local governments actively support enterprises in exploring new technologies and new formats in the digital economy, and support them through specific policies.

Since the beginning of this year, many national ministries and local governments have issued (supported) relevant policies for the development of the VR industry.

The virtual blogger Liu Yexi created by Douyin has become popular.

The meta universe will break the physical rules of the real world that people are accustomed to

Chinanews.com: From the virtual world oasis created in the movie "Number One Player", to the self-awakening of virtual NPCs (non-player characters) in "Out of Control Player" released this year, to the virtual blogger Liu Ye created by Douyin Hee is popular, what do you think of this phenomenon?

Will Metaverse really disrupt the human society in the future, as Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook, said?

Zuo Pengfei: In

recent years, with the continuous advancement of virtual reality technology, various platforms and institutions have created virtual idols.

This year, due to the sudden explosion of the meta universe, some virtual idols went viral, and Liu Yexi was one of them.

　　This phenomenon has deeper implications: on the one hand, from the perspective of users, highly anthropomorphic and empathetic virtual idols satisfy users’ fresh experience and enhance users’ initial understanding of meta-universe scenes. , Has a far-reaching significance; on the other hand, from the perspective of enterprises, virtual idols have increasingly become the carrier of corporate values ​​and ideas, and may become the most significant symbol of enterprises in the future. Therefore, more and more enterprises have launched their own virtual idols. .

The meta universe is a double-edged sword.

On the one hand, the development of the meta universe will allow more people to be immersed in the virtual world.

From the perspective of online time, the average online time of human beings is increasing year by year, and the performance of the young generation is more obvious. The

　　On the other hand, the development of the meta-universe will break the physical rules of the real world that we are used to, redefine most of our production and lifestyles in virtual space, and improve the production efficiency of the whole society through brand-new production methods and cooperation methods.

The impact of the meta universe on human society depends on human beings.

　　Therefore, we need to prospectively study a series of contents such as the principles and norms of the development of the meta-universe, technological ethics, etc.,

Data map: Tourists experience VR technology Photo by Liang Ting

The rise of the meta-universe industry will bring a new wealth pattern

Chinanews.com: PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that the market size of Meta Universe will reach US$1.5 trillion in 2030.

In reality, at what stage is the development of the meta universe?

What opportunities will it give birth to?

Is it the next opportunity to get rich?

Zuo Pengfei:

The development of Metaverse can be roughly divided into three stages: the

, where companies create some simple virtual reality content (provided) for users, and users can perform simple human-to-human interaction in virtual reality scenarios;

;

users can perform complex human-human interaction and simple human-computer interaction

in the meta-universe scene

; in the

users and machines can have a high degree of interaction in the meta-universe scene.

　　We are currently in the embryonic stage, and it will take about 10-20 years to enter the growth stage.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the development of Meta Universe will give birth to six opportunities:

　　First, the directly related technology industries that affect the application scenarios (realization) of the meta universe, such as XR, AI, space mapping, digital twins, etc.; second, the underlying technology industry that supports the operation of the meta universe scenes, and the meta universe needs to implement a large number of underlying technologies for in-depth Convergence, such as blockchain, cloud computing, big data, future networks, semiconductors and other fields; third, the virtual and reality connection (technology) industry.

That is, related technologies that connect the virtual world and the real world, such as wearable devices, brain-computer interfaces, micro-sensors, and other fields; fourth, the

; fifth, creative industries under visual simulation, a new type of economy created in the virtual world; sixth, payment, security and other auxiliary industries that help the meta-universe system to operate in a healthy and orderly manner.

　　The digital revolution is reshaping the pattern of traditional industries, and the rise of new industries often brings new wealth patterns.

At present, many internationally renowned consulting institutions have expressed optimism about the prospects of the Meta Universe market.

We believe that all walks of life,

Beware of creating a technology bubble in the name of the meta-universe concept

Chinanews.com: Now the capital market is enthusiastic about the concept of meta universe, and related stocks have skyrocketed.

From the current point of view, has the market valuation of Meta Universe been overestimated and has a bubble?

Zuo Pengfei:

Since the beginning of this year, major global investment institutions have invested in the metauniverse field, which has increased the attention and enthusiasm of metauniverse, brought a surge in related concept stocks, and increased the metauniverse bubble to a certain extent.

The capital market is accustomed to touting new concepts. Prior to this, the concepts of blockchain, artificial intelligence, and big data have also been hyped up. Therefore, many people worry that Metaverse will become a new bubble.

　　Different from previous concepts, Metaverse carries the extension and expansion of the real world. Enterprises and users have clear goals and expectations for the realization of their scenarios, which are jointly promoted by technological progress and human needs.

For this reason, we should maintain a rational behavioral cognition and correct market orientation, promote the gradual maturity of its industry, and be careful not to use technology and concepts to trigger a technology bubble.

Children wear VR glasses to experience "space flight".

Photo by Ren Dong, China News Agency reporter

The development of Meta Universe is a big challenge to antitrust and privacy protection

Chinanews: How far are we from the real meta-universe world, and what challenges and problems are facing?

If it is really realized, what tremendous changes will it bring to our lives and social and economic development?

Zuo Pengfei:

We are about 10-20 years away from the realization of the basic scene of the meta universe. In addition to the technical bottleneck, we mainly face four challenges:

　　First, how to establish the basic framework for the operation of the meta-universe?

The meta universe is a scene simulation of the real economic society, which involves a series of basic framework selection issues such as values, system design, and legal order.

　　Second, how to avoid the formation of a high degree of monopoly?

The realization of the meta-universe scene requires a huge investment of manpower and material resources, and at the same time the realization of ultra-large-scale connections,

　　Third, how to maintain the positive interaction between the real world and the meta-universe?

That is to make good use of the double-edged sword of the meta universe to prevent people from being unable to extricate themselves from being immersed in the meta universe scene, and to play the positive role of the meta universe.

　　Fourth, how to protect privacy and data security?

The development of Metaverse requires collecting more personal information from people, and protecting personal privacy and data security will be a very big challenge.

Metaverse will bring about five major changes in our lives and social and economic development

: one is to further improve the efficiency of social production in terms of technological innovation and collaboration; the other is to give birth to a series of new technologies, new formats and new models, and promote traditions. Industrial transformation; the third is to promote the cross-border derivation of the cultural and creative industry, which greatly stimulates information consumption; the fourth is to reconstruct the working life style, a large amount of work and life will occur in the virtual world; the fifth is to promote the construction of smart cities and innovate social governance models.

Data map: Visitors experience high-tech glasses.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Xu Shaofeng

The meta-universe may allow mankind to derive a "dual world" civilization form

Chinanews.com: Some people think that if mankind realizes the meta-universe world before moving on to space civilization, it will be a disaster.

Do you agree with this view?

How do you see the influence of the meta universe on the direction of human civilization?

Zuo Pengfei:

The essence of technology is a means to achieve better integration with the environment.

Going to space civilization and entering the meta-universe world respectively reflect the two different technological pursuits of human beings for the exploration of the outer world and the needs of the inner world.

It is believed that it would be a disaster for mankind to realize the meta-universe (world) before moving on to space civilization. The root cause is the fear that mankind will be unable to extricate themselves from being immersed in the virtual world and lose the spirit of exploration.

　　First, these two technological pursuits are not in itself an antagonistic relationship, but can be parallel.

The most basic consideration is that not everyone likes the virtual world, just like not everyone likes games, so there is no need to worry that everyone will be immersed in the virtual world; This positive interaction between the real world and the meta-universe will make necessary corrections to the negative development, just like the current game anti-addiction system.

Third, exploring space civilization is very important. It is also very important for us to live in harmony with the earth. The development of the meta-universe will promote our better compatibility with the earth's environment.

　　The meta universe will guide human beings to actively explore the inner world and create an ideal life in the virtual world, which will affect the real social activities of human beings to a certain extent.

Therefore, with the development of the meta-universe, a highly interactive virtual world and the real world may form in the future,

Brief introduction of interviewed guests:

　　Zuo Pengfei, Ph.D., associate researcher, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Secretary-General of the Information Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, main research areas: information technology economy, Internet economy, Informatization.