The "scissors gap" between CPI and PPI expanded further in October——
Prices show obvious structural characteristics
Our reporter Xiong Li
On November 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in October, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month; the factory producer price index (PPI) increased by 13.5% year-on-year and 2.5% month-on-month. %.
The "scissors gap" between the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI has further expanded.
Experts believe that prices show obvious structural characteristics.
Looking ahead, CPI has a solid foundation for maintaining stable operation, and PPI is expected to tend to fall.
At present, the transmission of upstream and downstream prices is not obvious, and we must continue to do a good job in cross-cycle adjustments, strengthen supply and price stability, and help market entities cope with the impact of rising raw material prices.
CPI rebounded moderately within a reasonable range
"In October, due to the combined effects of special weather, the contradiction between supply and demand of some commodities, and rising costs, the CPI rose." said Dong Lijuan, senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
From a year-on-year perspective, the increase in CPI reversed its decline after the “four consecutive declines”.
Among them, food prices fell by 2.4%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.
In food, the price of pork fell by 44.0%, a decrease of 2.9%; the price of fresh vegetables changed from a 2.5% drop last month to an increase of 15.9%.
“This month’s CPI’s year-on-year increase was a new high for the year. Although the base figure fell back in the same period last year, the promotion of new price increases cannot be ignored,” said Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank.
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI went from flat in the previous month to an increase of 0.7%.
Among them, food prices changed from a 0.7% drop last month to an increase of 1.7%.
Dong Lijuan said that this is mainly because the price of fresh vegetables has risen more.
The price of fresh vegetables rose by 16.6%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.34 percentage points, accounting for nearly 50% of the total increase.
"In October, the CPI rebounded moderately within a reasonable range, and the core CPI was basically stable." Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, in a moderate range.
PPI growth continues to expand
In October, due to the combination of international import factors and the tight domestic supply of major energy and raw materials, PPI increased both year-on-year and month-on-month.
From a year-on-year perspective, PPI rose by 13.5%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, the price of means of production rose by 17.9%, an increase of 3.7%; the price of means of living rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.2%.
It is understood that among the 40 industrial sectors surveyed, 36 have seen price increases, the same as last month.
Among the main industries, the price of coal mining and washing industry increased by 103.7%, an increase of 28.8 percentage points; oil and natural gas extraction industry, petroleum coal and other fuel processing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry , Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical fiber manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry and other eight industries together affected the PPI increase by about 11.38%, more than 80% of the total increase.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, believes that industrial producer prices have obvious structural characteristics.
On the one hand, industrial purchase and ex-factory prices are rising, and the purchase price has increased even more; on the other hand, the continuous increase in PPI is mainly due to the expansion of the price of production materials, and the price of subsistence is relatively low.
The current price increase is still mainly on the production side, and the transmission of price increases from the production side to the terminal consumption is relatively slow.
"PPI is expected to tend to fall in the later period." Guo Liyan said that as the factors affecting the temporary supply of some industrial products in the early stage have been significantly weakened, the prices of related commodities will gradually return to a reasonable range.
The annual price target is expected to be achieved
In October, the "scissors gap" between PPI and CPI's year-on-year growth rate further expanded to 12 percentage points, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month, and a new high.
Experts said that the “scissors gap” has further expanded, on the one hand, consumer price growth is moderate; on the other hand, the transmission of upstream and downstream prices is still not obvious.
Liu Xuezhi believes that the PPI is expected to be in the peaking stage, and the possibility of future shocks and downward movement is greater.
The current CPI is still at a low level, and the spread of the epidemic affects terminal consumer demand, and it is difficult to drive consumer prices up.
It is expected that the increase in CPI may gradually expand in the future, and the "scissor gap" between CPI and PPI is expected to gradually converge.
Guo Liyan believes that looking forward to the next two months of this year, my country will have another bumper harvest in grain production, a sufficient supply of vegetables, abundant supply of goods and services in the consumer sector, a solid foundation for CPI to maintain stable operation, and the expected goal of annual prices can be achieved smoothly.
"There are still many imbalances and unbalanced factors in the economic recovery at home and abroad, and the test of policy regulation has also increased." Wen Bin believes that macroeconomic policies must continue to make cross-cyclical adjustments, increase efforts to boost domestic demand and stimulate the economy Drive growth, ease the contradiction between supply and demand of major energy products, and continue to help market players cope with the impact of rising raw material prices.