The relationship between the countries of the Western Balkans - Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia - to the EU is ambivalent.

Economically, they benefit from their proximity to the large sales market.

But political proximity to the EU is no guarantee of success.

This became evident when Zoran Zaev, the EU-friendly Prime Minister of North Macedonia, lost local elections and resigned.

One reason for this was the path to the EU promised by the EU but blocked by Bulgaria.

Disappointed hopes for Brussels destroy political capital.

But corruption, the lack of the rule of law, the questioning of statehood and ethnic conflicts not only make Europeans hesitate to invite more people to their club, they unsettle investors and encourage young people to emigrate.

Andreas Mihm

Business correspondent for Austria, East-Central and Southeastern Europe and Turkey based in Vienna.

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Some political leaders in Russia and China, such as Serbia's Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić, are looking for help.

Despite all this, the countries whose residents are used to hardship and are now also having to endure the pandemic are likely to achieve strong growth of 6.4 percent this year.

How strong could it be with better framework conditions?

Low corona vaccination rates and the dependence on foreign countries for exports and energy imports offer setback potential.

Everything got stuck in Ukraine

Ukraine makes headlines when it comes to the military conflict with Russia or the dispute over the passage of Russian gas to Central, Southeastern and Western Europe. Ukraine wants to prevent Nord Stream 2 from going into operation. Dwindling income from transit and low vaccination rates aren't the only problems. The economy is growing too slowly for an emerging country with 44 million inhabitants. The Eastern European Bank expects a mere 3.5 percent increase in gross domestic product. That would be 0.4 points more than the central bank in Kiev is forecasting.

In contrast, inflation is growing rapidly at 11 percent, which has prompted the central bank to raise interest rates to 8.5 percent. Growing agricultural exports after good harvests and rising world market prices as well as higher transfers from private individuals of more than 10 billion dollars from January to September, especially from migrants, have a supportive effect. Two million Ukrainians are said to be working in Poland alone. Investors and international donors give reason for criticism in the form of insufficient and “erratic” reforms in state authorities and companies, also against the influence of oligarchs. However, low interest rates on the international capital markets have so far enabled Ukraine to finance itself cheaply.

Romania ranks at the upper end of the forecasts for the economic outlook for 2021 in Central and Southeastern Europe.

The Eastern European bank believes the country will achieve a plus in gross domestic product of 7.2 percent, also driven by high domestic consumption.

The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies calculates at 6.8 percent.

This would match the country to the level before the pandemic - even if the corona infections recently shook it with new all-time highs like hardly any other country in Europe.

The energy price and supply chain crisis are making matters even more difficult.