The Spanish
Chamber of Commerce
has lowered its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy for
2021 from 5.9% to 4.7% and from 6.2% to 5.5% by 2022
, after warning that the recovery of the economy Spanish, after the historic collapse caused by the pandemic, loses the initially planned bellows.
This strong downward revision is explained by the
shortage of components, the higher cost of certain raw materials and supplies, and the slower execution rate of the European 'Next Generation EU' funds than
planned.
With regard to domestic demand, the component that experienced the greatest reduction is gross fixed capital formation, which will grow this year by
3.3%
instead of the
7.1%
previously estimated, mainly due to the investment in construction, which will experience a decline of
2.8%,
compared to the advance of
4% originally
expected.
This decline is due both to an increase in the demand for housing and civil works that is lower than expected, and to the slower execution rate of European funds.
This is also the cause of the lower dynamism of public consumption, which will grow this year by
3%, compared to 4.8% previously calculated, and 2.3% in 2021
.
Problems in the supply of goods, components and raw materials will be felt in external demand, with lower growth in exports and, above all, imports, although the foreign sector maintains its strength with increases in
exports of 12 , 6% this year and 11.6% next, and of imports with an increase of 10.7% and 9.7%, respectively
.
In any case, the Chamber estimates that the foreign sector of the Spanish economy will contribute positively to growth, a reflection of the consolidated internationalization of our business fabric.
THE LABOR MARKET WILL BEHAVE BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Despite the slowdown in the growth rate of the economy, the labor market will perform better than expected.
Thus, the Chamber of Commerce has revised upward the forecast for job creation,
both in 2021 and in 2022, while a more pronounced decrease in the unemployment rate is expected, which will stand at 15.3% this year and 14.4% the next
, on an annual average.
Between 2021 and 2022,
1.6 million jobs
are expected to be created
.
In relation to inflation, a
2.7%
annual average
increase in the
CPI
is expected
this year and
2.6%
the next, practically doubling the average rate previously estimated for 2022,
1.4%
.
In this sense, the Chamber expects that the tensions that are occurring in the prices of supplies and raw materials will be reflected in underlying inflation, especially next year, when an average rate of
1.5%
is anticipated
, compared to the 0.6% estimated for the whole of 2021
.
STRUCTURAL REFORMS
In this context of slower-than-expected economic recovery and growing inflationary tensions, it is essential to undertake the investments and structural reforms demanded by the economy.
To this end, the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan, supported by Next Generation EU funds, represents a historic opportunity to modernize the productive fabric and to boost activity and job creation.
In parallel, the Chamber has urged to establish a credible medium-term commitment to reduce the deficit and public debt.
"If progress is not made in this direction from this moment on, the Spanish economy could find itself in difficulties due to a hypothetical revision of the ECB's stimulus programs, if the current inflationary environment is maintained over time," he warned.
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