Egg prices will continue to run at a high level in the last two months of this year-
Egg prices are not low in off-season
Our reporter Huang Junyi
Recently, the price of eggs has increased significantly.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that on November 3, the average price of eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 10.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 11.7% from 9.57 yuan/kg on October 17.
According to the usual seasonal law, after the National Day, egg consumption enters the off-season, and the price will also enter a downward cycle lasting about two months. Why has it recently risen against the trend?
"In general, tight egg supply has led to a significant increase in egg prices recently." said Zhu Ning, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and chief analyst of the early warning team for agricultural products market analysis and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Zhu Ning.
Zhu Ning told reporters that there are three main reasons for the recent tight egg supply: First, due to the rapid cooling of the weather, the laying rate of laying hens has dropped slightly, which has affected the effective supply of eggs.
Second, there has been an outbreak of epidemics in some areas recently, and some consumers have stockpiled eggs, resulting in a significant increase in egg sales in some areas.
Third, after the National Day, the price of vegetables has risen sharply, and some vegetables are even more expensive than eggs, which has also increased the sales of eggs.
"In the early part of last week, the price of eggs in the Beijing market rose sharply, but the price was relatively stable in the latter part of last week." said Liu Tong, manager of the Statistics Department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market.
On October 29, the average wholesale price of eggs at the Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market was 11.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 14.80% from 9.80 yuan/kg in the same period last week (October 22). On the 29th, the 9.32 yuan/kg increased by 20.71%, which is 61.87% higher than the 6.95 yuan/kg in the same period last year.
The week-on-month, month-on-month, and year-on-year rises all rose sharply.
Most of the merchants in the Egg Trading Hall of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market purchase eggs directly from chicken farms all year round, and some commission third parties to supply them.
Recently, some merchants reported that eggs ordered from chicken farms often have delayed arrival times, so that they need to be borrowed from other merchants temporarily.
Liu Tong said that at present, some chicken farms in the northern production area have not only begun to produce the newly added laying hens, but also the eggs produced have changed from small to medium, and some have even changed from medium to large. The production capacity is Guaranteed.
The main factor driving the price increase in the early stage was online quotations. Due to the rapid increase in online quotations, some chicken farms were reluctant to sell.
In the medium and long term, egg prices will show a downward trend in volatility.
However, Zhu Ning believes that egg prices will continue to run at a high level in the last two months of this year.
On the one hand, the stock of laying hens across the country remained stable in November; on the other hand, the "Double 11" shopping festival boosted the sales of eggs on e-commerce platforms, and the replacement demand for vegetables by eggs will remain for a period of time. The price of eggs will remain stable in the short term. Will be at a high price.
In December, the stock of laying hens across the country is expected to increase slightly, and the egg market supply is stable and slightly increased.
As New Year's Day approaches, the amount of eggs in food processing plants will increase, and the demand for eggs in the catering industry will also increase. Various factors may cause egg prices to fluctuate upward.
Our reporter Huang Junyi