【Bureau of People's Livelihood Investigation】

  Editor's note:

  This is the People's Livelihood Investigation Bureau, which has never seen people's livelihood, and investigates the changes in people's livelihood.

Follow what you want to follow and what you didn't follow, and investigate what you want to see and what you haven't seen.

  Chinanews client, Beijing, November 6th (Zuo Yukun) "Shenzhen has a school district housing prices down by 6 million for sale" "Shenzhen's top school district housing is now concentrated."

Recently, the Shenzhen property market has been repeatedly listed in the hot search, reflecting the continuous sluggish property market in this city in winter.

  Will the market get colder next?

Data map: real estate.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo

The intermediary resigns, the seller shows weakness, the "first city of real estate speculators" goes cold

  "It's 500,000 lower than the guide price, and the owner will sell a good house in a hurry."

  "The only red book for five-year-olds is in hand. The government guides the price of 10 million yuan, and the current price is 8.5 million yuan."

  "The owner vacated the quota for the transfer of a new house, and it was sold in a very urgent manner. The guide price was 4.17 million for only 4 million, and the same apartment was sold for 5.5 million."

  In the recent advertisements released by Shenzhen real estate agency Xiao Yang, "bamboo market (referring to houses that are significantly lower than the market price)" and "below the guide price" are the most common keywords.

  "Probably after the implementation of the second-hand housing reference price in February this year, it became more and more sluggish. I haven't issued an order for a long time, and the monthly transaction volume in the store is only single digits." The Shenzhen property market has always been sensitive and has been in the business for nearly ten years. Xiao Yang once thought that he had seen through the ups and downs of the property market, but the recent bleakness was beyond his imagination.

  "A lot of intermediary after the Spring Festival gone back to Shenzhen, then there are

more and more people leave, to food delivery, express delivery, car dealers are

there

." Xiao Yang said the market is not good to let more and fierce competition among intermediaries , A lot of vicious competition has made the industry more and more miserable, and he has also faintly moved his heart to change his career.

  Ms. Yu, a seller in Shenzhen, is also very complicated recently: "Because I want to replace the three-bedroom house, I sincerely sell the current house. It has been listed at a price lower than 300,000 yuan for the same apartment in the community. When

an intermediary contacted me, I bargained

the price

below. My reserve price is 500,000, and if I can sell it, I have to charge me a 100,000 commission

, which makes me dumbfounded."

  "Probably because the market is not good now, they think it won't be easy to sell it." Faced with the current market, Ms. Yu also postponed her plan to change houses.

  The chill that Xiao Yang and Ms. Yu felt is also reflected in the data.

According to data from Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, in October, the number of transfers of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen was 1,605, a decrease of 9.1% from the previous month; the transaction of 150,000 square meters of second-hand residential properties was a decrease of 11.2% from the previous month.

The number of second-hand residential transfers in October was the lowest since March 2012.

  In addition to the biggest “killer” second-hand housing guide price in Shenzhen’s property market this year, the Shenzhen housing management incident, changes in mortgage interest rates, strict inspections of the source of funds for house purchases, strict blocking of loopholes such as false divorces, and lowered housing sales limit prices... The Shenzhen property market splashed another pot of "cold water".

Data map: Shenzhen Ping An Financial Center.

China News Agency reporter Chen Wenshe

Under strict control, the volume and price of second-hand housing in many places have fallen.

  Looking at the national second-hand housing market, "falling" is not a one-man show in Shenzhen.

  According to data from Centaline Real Estate Research Center, in October, Beijing's second-hand housing residential network signed 9,340 units, down 53.4% ​​year-on-year and 25.7%

month-on-month

. This is also the

seventh consecutive month of decline in transactions in Beijing's second-hand housing market, and it is the first time this year that it has fallen below 10,000 units.

.

  The transaction volume of second-hand housing in 13 hot cities monitored by E-House Research Institute in October was about 36,000 units, a decrease of 14,000 units from September, a decrease of 26.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year drop of 42.8%.

This also means that the rise in the second-hand housing market since 2015 has come to an end.

  Second-hand housing transaction volume continues to decline, which has a direct impact on short-term housing price expectations.

  According to data released by the China Index Research Institute, in October, the average price of second-hand residential properties in Baicheng was 16,026 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous month. This is the first decline in the price index of second-hand residential properties in Baicheng since its release in June 2020.

From the perspective of the number of cities that fluctuated, the price of second-hand housing in 59 cities fell month-on-month, and the number was the highest in the year.

Among them, second-hand prices in Shenzhen have fallen for 7 consecutive months, Shanghai has fallen for 3 months, and Guangzhou has fallen for 2 months.

  Like Shenzhen, the property market in these cities is mostly limited by the reference price of second-hand housing.

58. The 2021 "October National Housing Index Report" released by 58.com and Anjuke shows that

among the 10 cities that currently implement the second-hand housing reference price system, 8 cities have listed prices falling month-on-month, namely Dongguan, Ningbo, Chengdu, Sanya, Shaoxing, Wuxi, Hefei and Guangzhou

.

Data map: inside a sales office.

Photo by Zhang Yuhuan

The popularity of new houses is picking up, but the end of the year is hard to come by

  "Recently, many departments have spoken out about protecting just-needed housing. There are also many news about interest rate loosening and policy loosening. I still have some hope." Xiao Yang told Chinanews.com that he still wanted to stick to it.

  In addition, the performance of the new house warming also made Xiao Yang a little relieved.

According to the statistics of Leyoujia Research Center, in October, Shenzhen's first-hand residential home network signatures rose to 4,712, a 41% increase from the previous month and 2% year-on-year.

4,712 units are the second highest transaction volume of new houses in Shenzhen in the past six months.

  The national trend is also roughly the same.

According to Crane data, in October, 29 monitored cities are expected to have 19.46 million square meters of new housing transactions, a slight drop of 3% from the previous month and a year-on-year drop of 22%. There is a trend of narrowing, with a decrease of 12% compared to the same period in 2019.

  "

As far as the new house market is concerned, in order to complete the annual sales task and stabilize the cash flow, developers will carry out additional projects and promotions from November to December

. It is expected that the sales of new houses in the fourth quarter may increase at the end of the year." Advanced Analysis of Shell Research Institute Master Pan Hao said.

  However, the performance of the new homes wanted to drive the market is also weak.

Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, believes that “on the whole, the

current property market has shifted from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. The decline in transaction volume, weak rise in transaction prices and even declines are important manifestations of this

. The change in market mentality has led to The heat has dropped significantly."

  Zhang Bo predicts that from the perspective of transaction volume, the average sales volume of September and October will continue to be maintained in November and December this year. It is not expected that there will be a significant increase in transaction volume in the same period last year, and the stability of transaction prices will be in more cities. Be reflected.

  What do you think of the cooling of the property market this round?

Do you think it will continue to go cold, or will it rebound?

(over)