A "market curious" corner where you can read the financial markets for a week.

The focus of the weekly market is, after all, the Fed = Federal Reserve Board of Governors FOMC = Open Market Committee.

As the market expected, we decided to taper to gradually reduce the scale of quantitative easing, but what was talked about among stakeholders was that inflation was a slight change in the expression as a "temporary factor." It was that.

How has it changed?

(Reporter, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Isao Watanabe)

At the FOMC on the 3rd, it was decided to gradually reduce the scale of "quantitative easing" that was started as a crisis response for the new coronavirus.



On the other hand, the expression about inflation has attracted attention among market participants.



So far, the Fed has described repeated inflation using the term "transitory factors."



He explained that the rate of increase in consumer prices in the United States is not permanent inflation, as it is due to the disruption of the supply chain and the resumption of economic activity triggered by the spread of the new corona infection.

今回の声明文ではどうなったかというと、「一時的と予想される要因」（factors that are expected to be transitory）という表現に微妙に修正してきました。



一般の人には小さな違いにしか感じないかもしれませんが、金融市場ではこうした細かな表現の違いが時としてインパクトを与えることもあります。



こういう、ことばの微妙な使い回し、日銀もよく使い、「日銀文学」とも呼ばれています。私たち金融を担当する記者はその違いを見つけ、解釈し、日銀のメッセージを読み取ろうとします。今回はさしずめ「FRB文学」といったところでしょうか。



さて、今回のFOMCの声明文について、市場関係者からは、「インフレの加速が『一時的』では無くなった時に備え、幅を持たせた表現に変えてきたのではないか」との分析も聞こえてきました。



確かにアメリカでは物価上昇率がFRBの目安とする2％を大きく上回り、5％台で推移しています。国内でインフレが加速すれば、FRBとしては利上げに踏み切るかどうかの判断に迫られます。



このため「一時的」という認識なのかどうかは、市場にとって非常に重要な表現なわけですが、いきなりこの文言を削ると、利上げが近いという観測を招いて、金利が跳ね上がるリスクもはらみます。



一方、表現を据え置くと、「これでまだ一時的？本当ですか？」という違和感を与えてしまいそうです。

Looking around the world, inflationary pressures are rising as the economy recovers from the new coronavirus.



Central banks such as South Korea and New Zealand have decided to raise interest rates one after another.

If the US continues to have an inflationary trend, it is possible that it will eventually raise interest rates.



The market has the property of always "look ahead", for better or for worse, but how do you make a policy change without giving a bad "surprise"?

The dialogue and skills of the central banks of each country are being questioned.



If you pay attention to detailed expressions such as this "FRB literature", you may feel the traces of each country's ingenuity.

Scheduled to pay attention

Of these, Softbank's financial results, which have a strong influence on the Tokyo stock market, are likely to attract attention.



In addition, the degree of inflation will be noted in the US consumer price index on the 10th.

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index on the 13th is paying attention to market participants because it can grasp the business sentiment of Sakizaki one year later.