• ALEJANDRA OLCESE

    @AlejandraOlcese

Updated on Wednesday, 3November2021-02: 17

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The

manufacturing industry

is in critical condition.

The

raw materials

and semi-finished products that it needs for its production process are scarce and the few that are available are sold at the

highest price since 1977.

Despite the fact that

collecting supplies

- the materials they need to produce - is now more expensive than ever, the country's factories have taken advantage of the month of October to buy everything they have been able to and fill their warehouses.

"There has been

the largest increase in

supplies

stocks

in more than three and a half years", detail the experts from the consulting firm

IHS Markit

in their latest analysis of the PMI Index of the Spanish manufacturing sector for October, published this Tuesday.

The main reason is uncertainty, and the fear that

shortages will worsen

if the collapse of global supply chains continues.

If this happens and order delivery periods continue to get delayed more and more, prices will continue to rise in the coming months.

"Given the severe global shortage of inputs, the prices of most raw materials rose in October. Coupled with higher prices paid for energy and utilities,

overall

input

costs

rose at a record rate

of the study, "explains the firm.

This rapid increase in prices together with the "persistent concern about the shortage of supply", has led companies to

buy in advance

this month all the products that were available in the market.

The rise in prices is reflected in the

Consumer Price Index of

the National Statistics Institute (INE), which in September (the latest available)

increased by 23.6% year-on-year

, the highest rise in forty-four years .

The

energy

is primarily responsible for this rise in producer prices since accumulated an

increase of 59.8%

in annual terms.

They are followed by intermediate goods, which have become more expensive by 16.8%, consumer goods (+ 4%) and equipment (2.4%).

More than 50% of companies affected

Companies, having to face an increase in their costs, began in October to pass

on prices to the final consumer

, which in turn has resulted in a moderation in demand.

"The companies reported that customers were unable or unwilling to pay the higher prices imposed by Spanish manufacturers, which rose to the highest rate in more than nineteen years of data availability," says the consultancy.

Rafael Myro

, professor of Applied Economics at the Complutense University, explains to this medium that "the shortage of raw materials and intermediate goods

is affecting about 50% of companies

, with differences between countries, which are framed in a large number of sectors, from the manufacturers of automobiles to those of furniture ". This situation will not be alleviated until 2022 and its solution will be slow, he warns.

The problem is explained by the fragmentation of production on an international scale and the existence of large global value chains, since when a component is missing, production stops and costs and final products become more expensive.

"The rise in energy costs accentuates the problem, since

not a few companies slow down their production to save energy costs

," he points out.

Employment, safe for now

The difficulties that the industry is going through at the moment have not been reflected in

employment

(the number of employed in the sector has grown by 63,000 in the last six months, according to the Labor Force Survey), but the unions closely monitor its evolution.

"At the moment

there is not a linear reaction

throughout the industry so we do not believe that it is a problem that could affect employment. But we must be very attentive especially to the increase in inflation and the crisis of shortages in some raw materials, such as steel, related to electro-intensive companies ",

Gerardo Cortijo

, head of industrial policy at

CCOO

and a

Michelin

worker

, explains to EL MUNDO

.

Cortijo sees the situation as "worrying" and, in particular, is concerned about the impact of the lack of semiconductors -especially in the automobile sector-, the rising cost of maritime and land transport and the crises that may occur in specific raw materials.

"We could say that it is a problem of generalized shortage, but with special incidence in

aluminum, nickel, cobalt or graphite,

raw materials all of them with a great demand in the current process of decarbonization of the economy and digitalization and with a strong imbalance between supply and demand that is not easy to correct in the short term, "says

Begoña Cristero

, partner of Industry, Automotive and Chemicals at

KPMG

, in statements to this medium.

In Spain, the most affected for now are the automobile industry, the electrical and electronic products, rubber, plastic or chemical industries "

Begoña Cristero, Industry, Automotive and Chemical partner at KPMG Spain

The expert points out that in the case of

aluminum,

the appearance of a new disruptive factor is also influencing:

China

.

"It is one of the main producers of magnesium in the world and on whose production the EU depends by 95%, and has reduced its production since September, within the framework of a policy of restrictions on energy consumption, being a key element in the production processes of aluminum or steel ".

In

Spain

, the most affected for now are the

automobile industry

, electrical and electronic products, rubber, plastic or chemicals.

"In general,

all industries are affected

in one

way or another

in some link in the chain. But, undoubtedly, those industries with a

just-in-time

manufacturing model such

as the automotive industry have a direct impact on their line of business. flotation, and they are being forced to

temporarily stop their plants while

waiting to receive the inputs to incorporate into the manufacturing process, "he laments.

The company

BeGas

, manufacturer of autogas engines, is an example.

"The situation is difficult to manage.

Manufacturers are warning us that there is going to be a shortage,

so we are getting ahead of ourselves and placing orders so as not to be left out of their production capacity. This leads us to invest money to make this stockpile of materials and not fail in our

just-in-time

because we manufacture to order ", explains its CEO,

Pedro Silva.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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