ALEJANDRA OLCESE
@AlejandraOlcese
Updated on Wednesday, 3November2021-02: 17
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The
manufacturing industry
is in critical condition.
The
raw materials
and semi-finished products that it needs for its production process are scarce and the few that are available are sold at the
highest price since 1977.
Despite the fact that
collecting supplies
- the materials they need to produce - is now more expensive than ever, the country's factories have taken advantage of the month of October to buy everything they have been able to and fill their warehouses.
"There has been
the largest increase in
supplies
stocks
in more than three and a half years", detail the experts from the consulting firm
IHS Markit
in their latest analysis of the PMI Index of the Spanish manufacturing sector for October, published this Tuesday.
The main reason is uncertainty, and the fear that
shortages will worsen
if the collapse of global supply chains continues.
If this happens and order delivery periods continue to get delayed more and more, prices will continue to rise in the coming months.
"Given the severe global shortage of inputs, the prices of most raw materials rose in October. Coupled with higher prices paid for energy and utilities,
overall
input
costs
rose at a record rate
of the study, "explains the firm.
This rapid increase in prices together with the "persistent concern about the shortage of supply", has led companies to
buy in advance
this month all the products that were available in the market.
The rise in prices is reflected in the
Consumer Price Index of
the National Statistics Institute (INE), which in September (the latest available)
increased by 23.6% year-on-year
, the highest rise in forty-four years .
The
energy
is primarily responsible for this rise in producer prices since accumulated an
increase of 59.8%
in annual terms.
They are followed by intermediate goods, which have become more expensive by 16.8%, consumer goods (+ 4%) and equipment (2.4%).
More than 50% of companies affected
Companies, having to face an increase in their costs, began in October to pass
on prices to the final consumer
, which in turn has resulted in a moderation in demand.
"The companies reported that customers were unable or unwilling to pay the higher prices imposed by Spanish manufacturers, which rose to the highest rate in more than nineteen years of data availability," says the consultancy.
Rafael Myro
, professor of Applied Economics at the Complutense University, explains to this medium that "the shortage of raw materials and intermediate goods
is affecting about 50% of companies
, with differences between countries, which are framed in a large number of sectors, from the manufacturers of automobiles to those of furniture ". This situation will not be alleviated until 2022 and its solution will be slow, he warns.
The problem is explained by the fragmentation of production on an international scale and the existence of large global value chains, since when a component is missing, production stops and costs and final products become more expensive.
"The rise in energy costs accentuates the problem, since
not a few companies slow down their production to save energy costs
," he points out.
Employment, safe for now
The difficulties that the industry is going through at the moment have not been reflected in
employment
(the number of employed in the sector has grown by 63,000 in the last six months, according to the Labor Force Survey), but the unions closely monitor its evolution.
"At the moment
there is not a linear reaction
throughout the industry so we do not believe that it is a problem that could affect employment. But we must be very attentive especially to the increase in inflation and the crisis of shortages in some raw materials, such as steel, related to electro-intensive companies ",
Gerardo Cortijo
, head of industrial policy at
CCOO
and a
Michelin
worker
, explains to EL MUNDO
.
Cortijo sees the situation as "worrying" and, in particular, is concerned about the impact of the lack of semiconductors -especially in the automobile sector-, the rising cost of maritime and land transport and the crises that may occur in specific raw materials.
"We could say that it is a problem of generalized shortage, but with special incidence in
aluminum, nickel, cobalt or graphite,
raw materials all of them with a great demand in the current process of decarbonization of the economy and digitalization and with a strong imbalance between supply and demand that is not easy to correct in the short term, "says
Begoña Cristero
, partner of Industry, Automotive and Chemicals at
KPMG
, in statements to this medium.
In Spain, the most affected for now are the automobile industry, the electrical and electronic products, rubber, plastic or chemical industries "
Begoña Cristero, Industry, Automotive and Chemical partner at KPMG Spain
The expert points out that in the case of
aluminum,
the appearance of a new disruptive factor is also influencing:
China
.
"It is one of the main producers of magnesium in the world and on whose production the EU depends by 95%, and has reduced its production since September, within the framework of a policy of restrictions on energy consumption, being a key element in the production processes of aluminum or steel ".
In
Spain
, the most affected for now are the
automobile industry
, electrical and electronic products, rubber, plastic or chemicals.
"In general,
all industries are affected
in one
way or another
in some link in the chain. But, undoubtedly, those industries with a
just-in-time
manufacturing model such
as the automotive industry have a direct impact on their line of business. flotation, and they are being forced to
temporarily stop their plants while
waiting to receive the inputs to incorporate into the manufacturing process, "he laments.
The company
BeGas
, manufacturer of autogas engines, is an example.
"The situation is difficult to manage.
Manufacturers are warning us that there is going to be a shortage,
so we are getting ahead of ourselves and placing orders so as not to be left out of their production capacity. This leads us to invest money to make this stockpile of materials and not fail in our
just-in-time
because we manufacture to order ", explains its CEO,
Pedro Silva.
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