Go up and up! Paper can't hold the "fire"

　　Chinanews client, Beijing, November 4th (Gong Hongyu and Zuo Yuqing) Can't hold paper prices again?

　　Recently, all major production bases of Nine Dragons Paper have issued price increase letters, announcing that the prices of ox cardboard, corrugated paper, etc. will increase by 100-150 yuan/ton from November 1.

　　APP Jinguang Paper, Shandong Sun Paper and other cultural paper manufacturers announced that various papers will increase their prices by 300 yuan/ton from November 1.

　　In terms of household paper, Zhongshun Jierou announced that it will adjust its prices on January 1, 2022 due to rising costs.

Data map: In April 2020, workers from a company were sorting out toilet paper to be exported.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Qu Honglun

The paper industry ushered in the second wave of price increases this year

　　The flood of price increase letters undoubtedly added fire to the unstable paper market.

　　According to data from Zhuo Chuang Information, the price of packaging paper has been rising for several consecutive months. Among them, the price of corrugated paper has risen by more than 30% year-on-year. The price in mid-October has reached the highest point of the year; the price of cultural paper has started to fall in April after the skyrocketing at the beginning of the year. There was a rebound in October; the price of household paper also experienced a sharp rise at the beginning of the year, then fell, and rose again in October.

　　"Luoyang paper is expensive" reappear?

The owner of a stationery store in Xiamen said that last year's 20-22 yuan a pack of Asia-Pacific Senbo 70g A4 copy paper, now sold for 25 yuan a pack.

　　Rising paper prices have brought cost pressures to downstream printing shops.

Faced with successive increases in paper prices, the owner of a print shop said, “There are still some paper stocks that can be held for a period of time. There is no way to increase the price, but you can only digest it yourself.”

　　In terms of household paper, in April this year, affected by the increase in raw material prices at the beginning of this year, paper companies such as Jierou and Vinda announced an increase in paper prices due to increased production and operating costs.

At the end of October, Jierou issued a price increase letter again.

However, the

.

　　For packaging factories, the price of corrugated paper raw materials is soaring, and the downstream pass-through costs are limited. Some manufacturers say that it is difficult to do business and even start to lose money.

Data map: Production line of a paper company in Guizhou Province.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Qu Honglun

Paper rises, pulp falls

　　Behind the high prices of finished paper, the spot prices of pulp raw materials have fluctuated and dropped recently.

　　According to data from Zhuo Chuang Information, after the spot price of pulp rose sharply in the first quarter of 2021, since May, the spot market price of imported wood pulp has continued to fluctuate downward.

　　According to the monitoring of the business agency, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp, which are the raw materials for papermaking, were still in a downward trend in October.

For example, on October 28, the average price of softwood pulp in Shandong area was 5,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.54% compared with the beginning of the month; on October 29, the average price of hardwood pulp in Shandong area was 4450 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the month A decrease of 3.26%.

　　In this regard, some analysts said that the domestic market's limited power has affected production capacity, and the downstream paper mill operating rate has decreased, and the demand for raw materials has decreased, thus suppressing the price of pulp.

During the same period, affected by the sharp rise in the prices of coal, starch and other materials, the pressure on the production cost of enterprises increased, and the overall start-up was still insufficient, resulting in continued weakness in pulp futures and spot prices.

Why is the price of pulp and finished paper out of touch?

　　In this regard, Chang Junting, a pulp analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said in an interview with Chinanews.com that the decline in pulp prices is mainly affected by its own supply and demand and futures factors. The price adjustment of raw paper is also based on its own supply and demand and cost considerations.

　　Taking corrugated paper and containerboard paper, which have seen significant price increases, for example, firstly, due to factors such as the shutdown of upstream paper mills for maintenance and the increase in packaging demand during the Double Eleven shopping festival, the real corrugated paper transactions rose by 400-600 yuan/ton; secondly, The cost side forms a strong support for paper prices. Although the cost side trend is weaker, the overall price of corrugated paper pulp raw materials is still high and fluctuating.

As for cultural paper, chemical auxiliary materials and other cost prices are higher, which will have a certain impact on the price increase of finished paper.

Data map: A college in Chongqing collects express delivery for students.

Photo by Zhou Yi

　　Can rising paper prices drive pulp prices?

According to Chang Junting, from historical price data, there is a positive correlation between pulp and paper prices.

However, in recent times, the increase in raw paper prices in some areas has not had a significant effect on the increase in pulp prices. This is mainly due to the continued stability of the pulp market supply, the continued decline in external disk and futures prices.

　　Turning to the future trend of pulp prices, Chang Junting analyzed that pulp supply continued to be stable, while demand side growth was limited, and the improvement of supply and demand was limited. However, considering cost factors, pulp prices are expected to be weak and fluctuating.

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