Under normal circumstances, now would be a good time to take your profits on the stock market.

After all, the Dax is more than a third higher over the next twelve months.

The broader FAZ index, whose development, in contrast to the Dax, is not oversubscribed by the inclusion of dividends, can shine with a plus of 30 percent during this period.

Markus Frühauf

Editor in business.

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But the circumstances are far from normal. The extraordinary market environment has been shaped by the flood of liquidity from the central banks for years. It is also thanks to the negative returns on the bond market. Anyone who realizes their price gains now must have important reasons such as the repayment of a loan, the training of the offspring or a trip. Otherwise the alternatives are missing. Because with rising inflation, the money in the account is worth less and less, especially when the negative interest rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) result in higher account and custody fees.

Although interest rates on the bond market have recently risen with rising inflation rates and expectations, the reference interest rate, the yield on ten-year government bonds, remains in the negative range of minus 0.1 percent.

The latest statements by ECB President Christine Lagarde do not point to a change in monetary policy or a quick exit from the bond purchase program.

Investors face a “swing exchange”

For most investors, the conclusion is that there will be no alternatives to the stock market for the foreseeable future. But the development of the past few weeks shows that times have become choppy. On Thursday, the flagships from the American technology sector, the electronics company Apple and the online retailer Amazon, disappointed with their quarterly figures. The delivery bottlenecks are affecting business and the outlook until the end of the year.

Commerzbank stock specialist Andreas Hürkamp is preparing for a "swing market".

In addition to inflation expectations, he sees the slowdown in growth in the important export market of China as another slowing factor.

The past few months have shown what a rocking exchange means: the Dax can rise to the 16,000 point mark, but then again towards 15,000. Another argument against a dynamic upward movement on the stock market is that positive expectations of corporate profits have long been priced in .