Gortázar warns of a possible advance to 2023 of the rate hike in a scenario of "persistent inflation"

• INMA LIDÓN

  Valencia

Updated on Friday, October 29, 2021-18: 19

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• Results CaixaBank earns 4,801 million until September due to the merger with Bankia

Encourage economic recovery as a priority for economic and fiscal policies, but without losing sight of the signals already set by the market that point to two scenarios: rise

and prices in the form of

. That is the message sent by the CEO of

,

, about the reflection that central banks will have to make in the next two years.

According to Gortázar, "we see a strong recovery, with activity indicators such as the

in increasing levels and also those of

. For example, our cards already mark an increase of between 14 and 15% with 2019. But we are in the initial phase and we have to do everything possible to consolidate growth ", he assured in the presentation of the bank's results in the first nine months of 2021, in which they have earned 4,801 million after the merger with

.

The short-term challenges are set by the health control of the pandemic itself, the high inflation due to

prices

and the difficulties in the

that affect companies and reduce their activity. "We are optimistic at heart, but the recovery will be gradual and with obstacles. It is important that fiscal, economic and monetary policy continue to help to ensure that we get out of this situation," he added

That policy set by the central banks is "correct" for Gortázar, "because before making any move we must make sure that we get out." This movement is an increase in interest rates, which is not expected in the short term. Another thing is what the market ventures in the longer term. "I absolutely believe the president of the European Central Bank when she says that there will be no rate hike in 2022. With this negative scenario we are working. But in the long term, the market indicates

. That means that something happens and in the coming months you have to be vigilant to see how it unbalances the balance. In the short term there will be no movement of interest rates, but we have to have a debate in the medium-long which measures will lead to stability in public accounts. Because now it is the correct one but it is not sustainable in the long term, "he analyzed.

With indicators that indicate that the rise in prices may be "more persistent and prolonged over time", the market is already seeing an impact on the

.

"We have to manage with negative scenarios, but it is already assumed that it can return slightly positive in early 2023, crossing 0 to stay very low. That would be good for society, which wants them to be low, and stops being a Problem for savers. But we have been negative for seven years and we have had false alarms that they were going to rise and it has not occurred, "he said cautiously.

ERE and labor reform

The negativity of the rates, beset by the pandemic, has had an impact that has assumed with the increase in the efforts of its clients, which have grown after the merger with Bankia, of which there are two blows: technological integration, which is will culminate next quarter, and the

that they accepted the ERE "voluntarily", has reiterated the CEO on more than one occasion. Next Monday, 1,202 workers will leave the company, to which will be added other remittances in January and March, so that at the beginning of April 70% of the planned contracts have been terminated. The bank received 2,000 more requests to exit than agreed with the unions in the restructuring and will not grant them. The savings that the ERE will generate in personnel will be almost 600 million and will begin to be reflected in the accounts as of the fourth quarter.

In this scenario, Gortázar was in favor of the

that the Government intends to carry out, as long as it is "agreed" between employees and workers "because it is the key so that it lasts over time." "The current reform has worked by creating jobs, but it has also generated an even higher level of temporary employment and precariousness, and that is not good, because companies invest less and people invest less. In the crisis of 2007 we went from unemployment from 8 to 27%, 18 points. In Europe, from 7 to 13%. The labor market can respond to

based on massive unemployment, "he said.

One of the government's proposals on which it was against is to cut tax exemptions for

in favor of those implemented in companies.

"The Government is right to push the second pillar of employment plans and there is a 34% market share for it. Strengthening these plans is essential in this country because, with the aging of the population, it is necessary to save. But, while do not take off, reducing exemptions is premature, "he settled.

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