Generalized inflation, with the electricity bill soaring for months and the rising cost of raw materials and transport,

may overshadow a Christmas campaign

that starts with Black Friday (last weeks of November) and that is expected with optimism, since It is the first without a state of alarm and without restrictions.

Both the hospitality industry and commerce, two of the sectors most affected by the limitations derived from the pandemic, believe that it will be positive, since

there are accumulated savings

during this time that have not been given an outlet and this year there are no restrictions in the shops, neither opening hours nor capacity.

To this are added

almost two years without renovating a wardrobe

, since teleworking and restrictions on outings and meetings have made people not buy clothes.

This year, Christmas dinners, group meetings and nightlife also return.

"People want to go out, to make up for dinners and lost time," says José Luis Yzuel, president of the hospitality industry of Spain, which represents more than 300,000 establishments in the country.

They estimate sales only 15% below those of 2019.

However, they warn that

rising costs will inevitably lead to higher prices.

"We are going to see how all this affects the sector, but

in the medium term it is inevitable that they will have to affect the consumer,

" he says.

As he explains, the electricity bill is already 40% more, oil is 25% more expensive and soft drinks also have significant increases.

"There will come a time when these prices will not be able to be maintained," says Yzuel, who does believe that the impact on consumption could be more noticeable towards January.


Commerce expects to grow by 4%, although, as explained by Anged, the national association of large distribution companies, there are two elements that can distort this Christmas season, the time of highest consumption of the year: the rise in electricity, which " it has an important percentage of the costs ", and

that of taxes.

"It is certainly not a friendly environment for consumption or for the recovery of homes,

" they explain from this employer's association, which groups companies such as Carrefour, Media Markt, Leroy Merlin or El Corte Inglés.

Faced with this panorama of uncertainty, with many workers still in ERTE, "there are those who may choose to save."

The president of Aecoc, the association of mass consumption companies, awaits "with moderate optimism" these coming months, although he also warns of the risks associated with this inflation, as he highlighted this week during the celebration of the annual mass consumption congress of this association. .

An appointment in which the issue of price increases played a special role.

Some companies in the food sector are already doing it and others are studying it.

Non-food distribution (technology, household goods, DIY) currently

contains them, precisely so as not to truncate Black Friday.

Inflation doesn't just affect food and beverages.

The steel from which ship containers are made, for example, is much more expensive.

Also wood, aluminum or wood.

There is much more demand than supply.

This affects transport, packaging ... throughout the supply chain.

From Anged they recall, however, that although all these cost increases greatly affect margins,

"the pricing policy of each company is unique."

Fiab, the food and beverage employer, believes that "in these circumstances, consumer spending could be reduced, losing all the effort that has been previously made to reactivate the economy and build confidence", according to its CEO, Mauricio García de Quevedo.

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