The "vegetable basket" is struggling to carry: vegetable prices skyrocketed in October, and pork quietly rebounded

  Mr. Minying from Shanghai, who cooks daily at home, recently suddenly noticed that the price of vegetables has risen sharply. One kilogram of green beans was originally 12 yuan, but now it has risen to 20 yuan, an increase of nearly 70%; Chengdu citizen Li, who has to go to the market to buy vegetables every day Sir, it is obvious that the price of vegetables has risen sharply.

  Autumn and winter are the traditional peak seasons for agricultural product consumption. This year, affected by the adverse weather in the early period, vegetable prices in some places have even seen a year-on-year increase of nearly 200%.

At the same time, the price of pigs, which had been declining in the early days, also ushered in a surge after the November holiday, rebounding by nearly 50%.

  The feeling of two "family cooking husbands" in one east and one west is not a phenomenon unique to some regions, but a microcosm of the soaring prices of domestic "vegetable baskets" of agricultural products.

  As an important part of the "vegetable basket", the rising prices of vegetables and pork affect the daily lives of ordinary people.

On October 20, at a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council, Tang Ke, director of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated that in the next step, the mayor’s responsibility system for the “vegetable basket” will be implemented. Ensure the production and supply of "vegetable basket" products.

  From a macroeconomic perspective, since October, the rapid rise in vegetable prices may drive the consumer price index (CPI) food data to rebound.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI was generally stable in the first three quarters of this year, but due to multiple factors at home and abroad, the industrial producer price index (PPI) continued to rise. In September, the PPI rose by 10.7% year-on-year, a record high A new high, after 2008, it rose to more than 10% again.

"Food is more expensive than meat"

  Recently, vegetable prices have risen sharply in many parts of the country, and there has even been a phenomenon that "vegetables are more expensive than meat".

According to a CCTV financial report, in the vegetable market in Yueqing, Zhejiang, common vegetables such as snow peas and okra are more than 20 yuan per kilogram.

In comparison, according to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the price of pork was 19.73 yuan/kg in the week from October 15 to October 22, a month-on-month increase of 10.2%, but a year-on-year decrease of 54.7. %.

  The increase in the price of a single product of vegetables is only one aspect of the increase in the overall price of vegetables.

According to the "National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System", the average price of 19 vegetables in 286 wholesale markets across the country was 4.87 yuan/kg, an increase of 11.6% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 27.4%.

Among the 19 vegetable prices monitored, the prices of cauliflower, eggplant, spinach, beans, and celery increased by 26.9%, 20.3%, 17.5%, 16.8%, and 16.7%, respectively.

  On October 20th, according to statistics from the Nanhuanqiao Market in Suzhou City, the overall volume of green leafy vegetables showed a trend of decreasing and increasing prices.

The prices of vegetables such as green cabbage, water spinach, and Chinese cabbage all showed a price increase of about 50% compared with the prices of the same period last week.

  According to data from the Agricultural and Sideline Products Wholesale Center Market in Shantou, Guangdong Province, the average price of vegetables in the market continued to rise from October 16 to October 22 during the week from last week.

Among the 50 kinds of vegetables in the market statistics, the total comprehensive average price is 7.46 yuan/kg, an increase of 20.13% from last week's average price of 6.21 yuan/kg.

  Among them, the prices of 43 kinds of vegetables increased, the prices of 2 kinds of vegetables decreased, and the prices of 5 kinds of vegetables remained flat.

Among the vegetable varieties whose prices rose last week, spinach rose 96.57%, amaranth rose 60.52%, and broccoli rose 58.36%.

  On October 21, the 28 vegetable prices counted by Taiyuan Hexi Agricultural Products Co., Ltd. in October showed that the average vegetable price in the first half of October was 4.13 yuan/kg, an increase of 15% from the previous month. 23 of the 28 vegetable varieties counted A variety of vegetables rose, showing a situation of "increasing more and falling less".

Among the vegetables that increased significantly last week, the prices of some leafy vegetables even rose close to 200% year-on-year.

For example, rapeseed was 5.96 yuan/kg, an increase of 19% month-on-month and an increase of 180.5% year-on-year.

  In the northeast, according to Qiqihar Huabo market statistics, in September, due to the decrease in the volume of disaster-stricken vegetables in the south this year, the prices of vegetables generally rose. Among them, the prices of cucumbers and leafy vegetables increased significantly.

Behind the skyrocket

  Although the specific reasons behind the increase in vegetable prices are different, the general reason cannot be separated from the recent unfavorable weather in the vegetable producing areas.

For example, in Shantou, due to environmental impacts such as cooling and snowfall in many vegetable producing areas in the north, the quantity of vegetables coming from other cities has dropped significantly last week, prices have generally risen, and sales are good.

For example, the wholesale price of cucumbers in Shandong once reached 6.50 yuan/jin, and the wholesale price of white radishes in Liaoning reached 3.00 yuan/jin, both hitting record highs.

  For another example, in Taiyuan, Shanxi experienced continuous rainfall over a long period of time throughout the National Day holiday. Vegetable fields were flooded and flooded in many places. In addition, roads were disrupted, transportation was obstructed, and sales volume also appeared. As a result, prices have risen.

  Lin Guofa, the research director of Breck·Agricultural Commodity Shopping Network, told China Business News that the increase in vegetable prices is mainly due to supply problems, and the root cause is the impact of unfavorable weather.

  North China is China's main production area for autumn and winter vegetables, and the core production area for Chinese cabbage, radish, cabbage, and some melons and vegetables.

However, from September to early October this year, the continuous rainy weather in North China severely affected the growth of vegetables.

In addition, South China, Central China, East China and even Western China have recently experienced varying degrees of continuous rainfall.

  In addition to the weather and other objective factors, the soaring price of chemical fertilizers has also increased vegetable planting costs to a certain extent, and the reduction in chemical fertilizer consumption will also lead to reduced production.

  Lin Guofa said that October is the harvest time for winter vegetables in North China and East China. In previous years, the weather was good after autumn and the supply of vegetables was sufficient. The prices of bulk storage-resistant vegetables such as cabbage, radish, and cabbage were basically the lowest in the year.

However, this year encountered unfavorable weather. At this time, greenhouse vegetable production in the north has not fully recovered, and winter vegetables in the south have not yet been concentrated on the market. Vegetable supply has declined, and the market’s "out of gear" prices have soared.

  Liu Tong, head of the Statistics Department of Beijing Xinfadi Market, analyzed that taking the spinach in the Beijing market as an example, due to continuous rainfall, the spinach produced in the open field in Liaocheng, Shandong was soaked. It was impossible to arrange for farmers to replant in time, and they could only rely on subsequent greenhouse production. Guaranteed supply, but spinach produced in greenhouses will take a long time to go on the market.

  In addition, since the beginning of this year, the prices of seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. have generally risen, driving up the cost of vegetable cultivation; international oil prices have recently hit a record high in the past seven years. In September, domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose by 23.4% and 25.7%, respectively, driving an increase in transportation costs. And so on, also boosted the price of vegetables.

Affected by the atmosphere of inflation expectations

  Since October, the price of pigs has also ushered in a wave of long-lost rises, and the price of live pigs has risen close to 50%.

Since the main hog futures contract hit its first daily limit since its listing on October 11, the market has also begun to predict that this may be a signal that pig prices have stabilized.

  In this regard, the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs explained that the reason for the recent increase in pork prices is that as the weather turns cold, the price of pork is low, and many places are cured in advance and sausages. In addition, the impact of purchasing and storage has significantly improved the terminal demand.

At the same time, the digestion rate of large-weight live pigs has been accelerated, and the price is higher than that of standard-weight live pigs. Farmers have increased their willingness to resist prices, and the supply of live pigs has been tightened for a short time, jointly supporting the increase in prices of live pigs and pork.

  Lin Guofa believes that the increase in pig prices is mainly due to the large decline in the previous period, and farmers and enterprises have accelerated the elimination of inefficient production capacity.

In addition, there is inflation expectations on the one hand, and pig breeding losses on the other. The increase in the willingness of pig farmers to reluctance to sell has increased the momentum for rising pig prices.

  He said that the current pig price decline cycle is still in the cycle, and the situation of easing production capacity of live pigs has not changed. The early enema and bacon consumption from mid-September to the present have overdrawn the consumption in December, and the pig price has risen to 16 yuan/ Around kilograms, it will turn into stagflation, and will continue to fall in the later period.

  Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst at Haitong Securities, believes that the recent rise in live pig prices may not be sustainable, because China's live pig supply is expected to remain high from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, even if consumer demand improves with the arrival of winter. It is also difficult to reverse the general trend that supply is significantly stronger than demand, and it is difficult for pig prices to change from the downturn.

The short-term recovery is mainly driven by the development of purchasing and storage work. Coupled with the arrival of the peak consumption season, the pig price continues to fall in the fourth quarter with limited space.

  From a global perspective, affected by the global logistics crisis and supply chain crisis, the "vegetable baskets" of Asian countries such as India and Japan are all affected to varying degrees.

  According to CCTV Finance, the wholesale price of Korean pork belly exceeded 25,000 won (about 135 yuan) per kilogram, setting a new high in the past ten years. The price tag for a catty of beef tenderloin has exceeded 120,000 won (about 652 yuan).

In addition, the prices of eggs, milk, cheese and other foods have also increased, and the phenomenon of "protein inflation" in South Korea has further intensified.

  Recently, in Japan, fast food chain restaurants are in a dilemma that they have no chips to sell.

In India, the prices of daily edible vegetables such as tomatoes, potatoes, radishes, and eggplants have also increased by 1 to 1.5 times.

  Lin Guofa said that in addition to domestic production, a large part of Japanese and Korean vegetables need to be imported.

The hindrance of global logistics, coupled with the reduction of vegetable supply in China and other vegetable importing countries, has also led to substantial increases in vegetable prices in Japan and South Korea.

  Industry insiders believe that the recent increase in vegetables and pork in China is not affected by foreign factors, but it is also affected by the atmosphere of inflation expectations triggered by turbulent overseas inflation.

Specifically, the increase in the supply of some industrial products and food is significantly related to foreign countries-the international price of crude oil and natural gas has skyrocketed, coupled with the increase in international currency liquidity, pushing up global commodity prices.

The market is worried about the further rise of commodities in the later stage, increasing storage capacity, and consumers hoarding goods in advance, which will aggravate the rise in commodity prices.

  Taking the United States as an example, there are two intertwined reasons for rising prices in the United States: on the one hand, the supply chain interruption caused by the epidemic is still continuing, and on the other hand, the outbreak of demand after the epidemic has eased.

The two reinforce each other, and ultimately form the result of supply chain disruption.

(Author: Shao Haipeng)