Unédic, which manages the unemployment insurance scheme, announced on Friday that it would expect a return to surplus from 2022, but with a high level of indebtedness calling for "extreme caution".
The joint body, which presented its financial forecasts for the unemployment insurance scheme for 2023, indicates that after a deficit of 17.4 billion in 2020, with the unprecedented shock of the Covid-19 crisis, " Unédic's financial balance would be -10 billion euros in 2021, then a surplus of +1.5 billion in 2022 and +2.3 billion in 2023 ”.
Different effects added together
This marked improvement between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022 would come from three factors: 60% of the end of the financing of emergency measures, including partial activity (financed one third by Unédic and two thirds by the State), for 25% of the cyclical improvement with the rebound in employment, and for 15% of the effects of the reform of unemployment insurance, provided that it is applied according to the planned timetable.
At the same time, the debt "would reach 64.7 billion at the end of 2021, then it would begin to decrease in 2022 to settle at 63.2 billion at the end of the year and to 60.9 billion at the end of 2023", continues the organization, evoking a debt which "remains marked by the weight of the financing of emergency measures" (19.4 billion in additional debt at the end of 2022).
During a videoconference press point, the president of Unédic, Eric Le Jaouen (Medef), reported a message "a little paradoxical" with a regime which will find a surplus in 2022, "good news "And at the same time" an unprecedented debt figure "in December 2021, which calls for" extreme caution ".
He also underlined the "rather complex context for forecasters", evoking in particular the uncertainties around inflation.
"Exceptional rebound"
On the employment side, Unédic expects the creation of 498,000 jobs at the end of 2021, "an exceptional rebound".
2022 should record the creation of 23,000 jobs and 2023, 96,000.
In its last forecasts in June, the organization anticipated the creation of 126,000 jobs this year and a deficit of 12 billion euros at the end of 2021. It forecast a more dynamic continuation of job creations in 2022 (+127,000) and in 2023 (+109,000).
These new forecasts come at a time when the Council of State is due to rule imminently on the summary appeals of the unions aimed at once again suspending the change in the method of calculating unemployment benefits, as part of the controversial reform.
The reform would save 1.9 billion euros in 2022
The forecasts presented are based on an application of the unemployment insurance reform in line with the timetable set by the government, in particular the modification of the calculation of the benefit which entered into force on 1 October and the tightening of the rules on the degression of benefits and over the membership period necessary to open or top up a right, which should come into force on 1 December.
During the press conference, Patricia Ferrand (CFDT), vice-president of Unédic, indicated that, according to the organization's calculations, the reform should generate lower spending of around 1.9 billion in 2022, including 800 million related to the new calculation of the daily reference wage (SJR), basis of the allowance.
The lowest spending would reach $ 2.2 billion in 2023.
For FO, opposed like all the other centrals to the reform of unemployment insurance, these forecasts confirm "all the more the full legitimacy and effectiveness of parity for the management of the system".
In a statement, the union once again "solemnly calls on the government to reason and withdraw its reform", noting that "the provisions for additional savings by reducing the rights of job seekers are in no way justified".
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