Sino-Singapore Jingwei, October 22 (Zhang Shunan) The continuous rise of coal prices has made the once silent "coal crazy" rise again.
Various departments have taken actions to promote the return of coal prices to fundamentals. Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other places have also sounded the coal supply guarantee charge. The rising coal prices may usher in an inflection point in the near future.
Maintain supply and price stability in many places to curb "coal crazy"
In August this year, coal prices rose again.
As of October 20, the main coke contract has increased by 45.50% in the past three months; coking coal has increased by 63.14%; thermal coal has soared by 109.42%, and broke through the 1,000 yuan mark in early September. Since then, it has continuously set a new record high in October. It was approaching 2,000 yuan on the 19th.
Daily K-line chart of the main contract of thermal coal Source: Wind
In terms of spot prices, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that on September 24, the comprehensive transaction price of 5,500, 5,000, and 4500 of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 194 yuan, 182 yuan, and 151 yuan, respectively, from August 27.
In recent times, China’s main coal producing areas-Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other places have successively issued notices to promote coal supply and increase production.
For example, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has made every effort to promote the nuclear increase and release of coal production capacity. It has successively approved 89 coal mines with increased production capacity in three batches, with an annual increase of 138 million tons of production capacity.
At the same time, 63 coal mines included in the list of coal mines guaranteed by the state were promoted to sign the mid- and long-term contracts for the fourth quarter. The task of 53 million tons of coal in 18 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) has been completely broken down to 29 key coal production enterprises.
The "Policy Reminder Letter of the Shaanxi Provincial Market Supervision Administration on Regulating the Price Behavior of Coal Enterprises" pointed out that Yulin City, the main coal producing area, has begun the "100-day action to curb coal prices" to further regulate coal market price behavior and crack down on excessively fast or excessive sales prices of coal enterprises. Illegal acts such as excessive price increases, price collusion or price drive up.
On October 18, Zhang Xiaoguang, party secretary and director of the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, held a special meeting on energy guarantee and emphasized to ensure that thermal coal stocks remain at a reasonable level, and resolutely put an end to the occurrence of coal shortages and shutdowns of power generation companies; continue to release effective coal production capacity.
Shanxi has signed contracts with 14 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities including Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin to guarantee the supply of coal in the fourth quarter to ensure energy supply...
Government-enterprise linkage to alleviate the "coal burning emergency"
Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that, in order to alleviate the "coal burning emergency", the policy level has made successive moves, and enterprises have responded one after another.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on October 8 requested that major coal-producing provinces and key coal companies implement the task of increasing production and supply as required.
The State Council executive meeting held on October 20 emphasized the need to ensure heating in the northern region, especially the northeast in winter.
Fully guarantee the production and transportation of coal for heating.
Crack down on coal market speculation in accordance with the law.
On the evening of October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission played a "combined punch" to study the implementation of intervention measures on coal prices in accordance with the law; organized a symposium for key coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation companies to maintain supply and stabilize prices; surveys at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange emphasized strengthening supervision and strictness in accordance with the law Investigate and punish capital's malicious speculation of thermal coal futures.
On October 20, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a trip to Hebei’s Qinhuangdao Port and Caofeidian Port to supervise the coal supply and price stabilization work, requiring resolute curb and regulation of speculation in accordance with laws and regulations to ensure the safe and stable supply of energy and power this winter and next spring, and coal storage and distribution transactions in Henan The central Hebi Park research emphasized severely cracking down on the coal spot market to drive up prices and disrupt the market economic order.
On the same day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized that it will guide the exchanges to adopt a number of measures such as raising the fee standard, tightening the transaction limit, and studying and implementing the expansion of the scope of delivery products to resolutely curb excessive speculation and put an end to malicious capital speculation.
For enterprises, for example, the National Energy Group held a special meeting to ensure supply on October 21, and proposed that the coal industry must ensure that the coal industry in the fourth quarter increases and produces high output in an orderly manner. Mines that meet the conditions for production will be arranged according to a quarter of the annual production capacity. Production, mines that have not reached production capacity should be organized in accordance with the maximization.
At the same time, the National Energy Group Coal Management Company, China Coal Group, Jinneng Holding Group, and Inner Mongolia Yitai Group promised to stabilize the price and guarantee the supply: the thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal launched in the Bohai Sea Port will be closed at 1,800 yuan/ton. Below; the closing price of 5000 kcal thermal coal is below 1,500 yuan/ton; the closing price of 4500 kcal thermal coal is below 1,200 yuan/ton; the price of high-calorie thermal coal other than the above coal types does not exceed 2,000 yuan/ton.
Can coal prices hold back?
New latitude and longitude in the data map
With the release of a series of measures to ensure supply and price stabilization, will coal prices go out of a round of adjustments?
For the time being, as reflected in the futures market, on the night of October 19, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal dropped their limit. From October 20 to 21, the coal "three brothers" continued their limit.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the research institute, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that, judging from the current market reaction, it is still relatively positive.
The linkage between coal prices and electricity prices is the focus of the current market. From the comparison of coal prices and power generation costs, there has been an inversion of electricity prices.
Therefore, while liberalizing the electricity price mechanism, how to further stabilize the supply and price of coal is a top priority.
According to the analysis of Ruida Futures, the impact of relevant regulatory policies on the coal market in the short term will continue.
At present, the peak season for thermal coal consumption in winter has begun, which has certain support for coal prices.
Judging from the output in the fourth quarter of recent years, coal output has shown an increase, and in the context of increasing efforts to ensure supply, coal production in the fourth quarter of this year is likely to increase significantly, and coal prices will return to the normal fluctuation range.
The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association predicts that with the accelerated release of coal production capacity in the main producing areas, coal supply will continue to grow in the later stage, coal demand growth will drop, and the coal market supply and demand situation will gradually improve.
It is reported that from October 1st to 13th, the association focused on monitoring that the average daily coal output of coal companies increased by 4.5% compared to September, and the effect of increasing coal production and supply is gradually showing.
CCB Futures reminded in the research report that the news at the regulatory level reflects that the country has a clear and strong attitude towards thermal coal supply and price stability. It is expected that the fundamentals of thermal coal will improve, and the prices of coking coal, coke and thermal coal futures are facing a rapid decline. risk.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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