China-Singapore Jingwei, October 20 (Xiong Jiali) The National Bureau of Statistics recently released the consumer price index (CPI) data of 31 provinces in September. How is the price increase in various regions?

How will CPI go in the future?

Let's take a look together.

Prices fall in 5 provinces

　　In September 2021, national consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year.

According to Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, from a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose from 0.1% last month to the same level; from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose 0.7%, a drop of 0.1% from the previous month.

　　In terms of different provinces, Hebei, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Tibet, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Henan, Gansu, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Jilin, Chongqing, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guizhou saw the year-on-year increase in September CPI lower than the national average.17 province.

Among them, the CPI of the five provinces of Jilin, Chongqing, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guizhou declined year-on-year, down 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.4% respectively.

　　In addition, compared with August, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 21 provinces including Chongqing, Yunnan, and Jilin dropped somewhat. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in Fujian and Tibet in September was the same as that in August.

　　Wanlian Securities analyst Xu Fei pointed out that the CPI continued to fall in September, and the food item continued to drop year-on-year.

Pork prices fell sharply from the previous month, which was still the main drag.

The agency claims that short-term pig prices are under pressure, how will prices go in the future?

　　Regarding the price of pigs, Xu Fei analyzed that the number of breeding sows is still at a high level and the supply side is still abundant.

The current price of farmers is in a state of loss, and the policy side has strengthened the regulation of stable pig prices, but the short-term pork price is still under pressure.

　　China Development Bank Securities analyst Du Zhengzheng believes that due to factors such as potential supply margin decline, national purchasing and storage and other factors that have promoted the improvement of market expectations, the gradual arrival of the superimposed consumption peak season and the rigid cost, there is limited room for continued decline in pork prices.

Du Zhengzheng said that short-term supply is still relatively sufficient, but the room for rebound is limited, and it may fluctuate during the year.

In addition, the slight decline in pork prices in the fourth quarter of 2020 will also help narrow the year-on-year decline in the fourth quarter of this year.

Pork on the supermarket shelf.

Photo by Wang Yongle of China-Singapore Jingwei

　　What is the future price trend?

According to Du Zhengzheng's analysis, vegetable prices tend to rise after the "Eleventh" period. Live hog futures have a daily limit for the first time since the listing, superimposed on the recent continuous increase in refined oil products and the continuous high PPI, as well as the low base effect from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of this year, etc., in the next six months CPI may rebound significantly.

The CPI in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to rise from 0.8% in the third quarter to 1.6%, with a monthly high of about 2%; the year-on-year increase will be about 1%.

　　Xu Dongshi, a macroeconomic analyst at China Galaxy Securities, said that the main problem facing China's future economy is insufficient effective demand, which is the main problem of China's transitional economy.

Before China's effective demand is restored, the probability of a full-scale increase in the CPI is very small. It is expected that the CPI may run at a low level in the next 2-3 years.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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