For several months, the Yemeni conflict has crystallized around the city of Marib. While this battle for control of the last stronghold of government in the north of the country has already grown ...

Yemen: behind the rebel offensive in Marib, an increasingly complex war

Clashes around Marib, the last loyalist stronghold in northern Yemen, have intensified in recent months.

Here, a pro-government soldier holds a position against the Houthi rebels, near Marib, on October 17, 2021. © AFP

Text by: Oriane Verdier Follow

4 min

For several months, the Yemeni conflict has crystallized around the city of Marib.

While this battle for control of the last stronghold of government in the north of the country has already pushed tens of thousands of civilians to move, according to the United Nations.

The Houthi rebels continue their offensive against loyalist forces.

If this front pushes aside the prospect of negotiations, the issues raised by the conflict could linger for years to come.

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In recent years, Marib was considered one of the last oases of stability in the country.

The city is rich in oil and gas, and the tribes that inhabit it fiercely support pro-government forces.

Thus, thousands of families have found refuge there after having to abandon their own homes ravaged by a conflict that has now lasted for seven years.

But in their desire to extend their control over the entire country, the Houthis therefore launched an offensive last February in the direction of this city.

At the cost

of hundreds of deaths in their ranks

, they gradually manage to surround it.

There have been advances in recent weeks in the region of Al-Baïda, south of Marib, with a capture of this governorate which increasingly cuts the link between Marib and the South

," notes Laurent Bonnefoy, researcher at the Sciences Po and CNRS International Research Center (Ceri).

This risks further isolating government forces and removing the possibility of negotiations.

Indeed, as long as the Houthi rebellion feels in a position of strength, it will be difficult to open the discussion.

However, a

series of meetings in recent months

between Iranian and Saudi delegations had nevertheless given hope for a start of detente between the two major regional players in this conflict.

But if Iran is presented as the ally of the Houthis in Yemen, it is difficult to know what power Tehran really has over the rebels

", raises Franck Mermier, research director at the CNRS.

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Yemen: the false hope of appeasement

Faced with them, the pro-government forces have to face several difficulties.

“

While the Houthis are united against a common enemy, this is not the case with anti-Houthi forces

,” recalls Laurent Bonnefoy.

The latter are fragmented between the "legitimate" government, Saudi Arabia, the southerners, the Emiratis, the Islamists and then the supporters of former President Saleh, formerly allied with the Houthis and who returned their jacket at the end of 2017.

The government forces supported by Saudi Arabia are not immune to having to fight on a new front in the South, against the separatists of the Southern Transition Council, adds Franck Mermier.

A loss of power for the Saudi coalition

Internationally, Saudi Arabia has also changed its position in recent months, weakening its strike force on the ground. This hopeless conflict, in which Riyadh has been engaged for six years, is starting to cost it dearly. While this military campaign was slated to last a few weeks, it turned into

one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world

, tarnishing the country's image internationally.

On the other hand, the change of administration in the United States, a great ally of the Saudis, forces the latter to review their copy. “

Joe Biden was elected with the idea that he would put pressure on the Saudis,”

explains Laurent Bonnefoy

. He did not completely break with Riyadh, but American pressure reduced Saudi Arabia's capacity to supply arms.

Today, while defending the Marib front, Riyadh is therefore looking for a solution to minimize losses coming out of this conflict.

The Saudi authorities will in any case be forced to accept the presence at their borders of the Houthi forces.

But from Franck Mermier's point of view, a partition of Yemen could interest certain regional players: it would prevent the creation of a strong and democratic Yemen as it was when the crisis started.

An increasingly fragmented society

The rich and active pre-war civil society, boosted by the Arab Spring, has also partly disappeared. The majority of its players are now located abroad, according to Franck Mermier. Those who remained in Yemen face severe repression, especially in Houthi territory. “

This civil society is struggling today to make its voice heard

, recognizes the researcher,

but it does exist. There are gatherings of Yemenis reflecting on the post-war era and trying to recompose the country's torn social and cultural fabric.

Despite these efforts, the more months and years pass, the more severe the fractures in the population.

The denominational dimension of this rupture particularly worries Laurent Bonnefoy: “

Yemen has this Zaïdite component of Shiite origin represented by the Houthis, which is more and more assimilated to Iran and to Shiism, in the face of a Sunni majority.
In Yemen, there was a very interesting and exceptional system of coexistence within the region.
Once we have initiated this identity dynamic, we do not really know how to get out of it.

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See also:
Yemen: one in eight people is displaced in an increasingly violent conflict

Yemen: behind the rebel offensive in Marib, an increasingly complex war

Yemen: behind the rebel offensive in Marib, an increasingly complex war

A loss of power for the Saudi coalition

An increasingly fragmented society

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