Chinanews client, Beijing, October 9th (Zuo Yukun) The traditional "golden nine silver ten" sales season of the property market has been eclipsed this year.
During the National Day, the sellers tried their best to promote sales, and the buyers were not in a hurry, and the transaction volume dropped sharply.
The high sales rate of “sold out at the opening of the market” during the same period in previous years no longer exists.
So now, is it a good time to buy a house?
Data map: real estate.
Photo by Luo Yunfei
Loose house prices, continuous property market promotions
Miss Yang, who is in Wuhan, Hubei, felt a little depressed during the "Eleventh" Golden Week just past.
"I just bought a house in Wuhan on May Day, and the price is 16,500/㎡. But the National Day real estate launched a discount campaign, and the price dropped to 15,000/㎡ or even lower. The same apartment type cost more than 100,000 yuan more than others. I bought it before. The money from the middle house can now buy the frontier house, the area is larger than 15 square meters, and the mentality collapsed." Ms. Yang told Chinanews.com.
Ms. Zhou, who lives in Suzhou, Jiangsu, also feels the same: "The house I bought at the end of last year at a price of 24,000/㎡ has now dropped to 21,000/㎡, and I have paid off the loan for one year more than others." Ms. Zhou said, There was also a house bought by a friend in April this year. The Guoqing district was liquidated. The price of the whole set of the same size dropped by 400,000 yuan, and even the parking space was given away for nothing.
Lin Lin (pseudonym), an employee of an intermediary agency in Beijing, has not been idle during this National Day holiday. Her circle of friends is full of advertisements for listings.
"Total price of 920,000 to buy an existing house in Beijing, you read it right, the average price of Mentougou New Town is 20,000 yuan!" "Introduced 30 sets of 140㎡ well-decorated existing house, free 25-35㎡ garden, free 20㎡ terrace, free parking space , The total price starts at 2.05 million, and the down payment starts at 400,000!" Linlin can post more than a dozen similar messages every day, and each has a price reduction promotion.
With lower house prices and constant promotions, the property market looks great.
However, from the data point of view, the real estate market during the "National Day" holiday continued the low temperature situation in September.
Take Wuhan, where Ms. Yang is located, as an example. According to the CREIS data from the Middle Index, a total of 88,200 square meters of commercial residential buildings were sold in Wuhan during the "National Day" period, a decrease of 55% from the same period last year, and the market's popularity has dropped significantly.
"Affected by the overall market environment, home buyers have insufficient confidence in buying homes. Most home buyers still have a strong wait-and-see attitude. However, some developers have launched special offers and work-to-home sales promotion activities in order to accelerate the sale. , The mentality of'picking up the leakage' has driven the flow of buyers to increase during the '11th' period." Zhongzhi Research Institute said.
"There are indeed a lot of house inspections, but very few can be settled." Linlin also told Chinanews.com, "Our intermediary currently only sells new houses, and we don't dare to sell second-hand houses. First of all, because of the recent full collection of mortgages. The buyer’s loan is too slow; secondly, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have successively introduced second-hand housing guidance prices. Beijing Haidian also started pilot projects before the National Day, so that both buyers and sellers are very cautious. There are a lot less people listed, and the ones that hang up are also very cautious. It’s hard to sell, no one even looks at it."
As for the performance of new home sales, Linlin said that there were a lot of new products opened around the National Day in Beijing, including many of the first batch of centralized land supply projects.
The range of choices is large, and the promotion efforts launched by the merchants are also very large.
The people who inspect the house are very active, but under the mentality of "buying up and not buying down", very few really make a move, and everyone hopes to be cheaper.
Data map: Many real estate agencies downstairs in a community.
Photo by Su Ting
"Golden, Nine, Silver and Ten" fade away, maintaining stability still sees long-term
"In the past, the National Day Golden Week was the hottest time period in the property market's'Golden Nine and Silver Ten', but this year's tightening of regulation and cooling of the property market, especially in many cities, explicitly or implicitly limit the policy, completely frozen the market." Centaline Property Chief Executive Analyst Zhang Dawei said.
Centaline Real Estate data shows that the overall market new transaction volume on the 7th day of National Day in most cities is the lowest in many years, and second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities are close to zero.
The long-term third- and fourth-tier return home purchases that occurred in previous years did not appear during the National Day in 2021, and the accelerated discounts in third- and fourth-tier cities began to appear obvious.
CREIS also showed that from October 1st to 7th, the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in the key monitored cities decreased by 33% compared with the same period last year. Buyers were not willing to buy homes. The market sentiment continued the wait-and-see situation in September.
Among them, the transaction volume in the first-tier cities was basically the same year-on-year, and the representative cities of the second-tier, third- and fourth-tier cities fell by more than 40%.
"Many friends around me persuaded me that now the mortgage interest rate is high, and the purchase cost is high. I didn't buy it in full but it was not a loss. Moreover, we just need housing and it will not have a big impact. It will be fine after five or ten years , House prices will definitely stabilize." Miss Yang told Chinanews.com.
"Stability" is also the most certain keyword in the current property market.
Before the National Day, the central bank rarely mentioned real estate twice in three days: "Maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers." It is regarded as a signal to stabilize market expectations and boost market confidence.
"The possibility of continued large-scale increase in various regions is significantly reduced. The space for fine-tuning and pre-adjustment of policies has been opened. In some cities, mortgage loan quotas and loan time, mortgage interest rates, visa restrictions and other policies are all possible to fine-tune in order to stabilize market expectations and the overall market It is expected to improve.” said Chen Wenjing, deputy research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute.
But at the same time, it will take time to realize the expected effect.
"Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the policy environment is still relatively strict, and the short-term market is still under pressure to adjust. The first batch of centralized land supply projects in key cities will soon enter the market, and market competition may become more intense." Chen Wenjing said.
"Preventing the property market from falling too fast is likely to become a future policy trend, and limiting the fall will inhibit the market withdrawing funds." Zhang Dawei believes that in the next three months, the trend of large-scale price cuts by real estate companies will continue to intensify.
For home buyers, they must be cautious when buying a house recently.
Has the house price dropped in your hometown?
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