<Anchor> This is a
friendly economic time. Today (8th), I will be with reporter Han Ji-yeon and reporters. A reporter, I don't think there's anything really missing these days. There doesn't seem to be any kind of food that doesn't increase the price of gas or rent, but are the prices rising?
<Reporter>
Yes. These days, there is a joke mixed with people saying, "There is nothing that doesn't increase except for wages."
The consumer price index last month also rose 2.5% from a year ago, showing an increase of 2% for the sixth consecutive month. In terms of items, food prices have continued to rise since the beginning of the year.
In the case of egg prices, it was said that they were going high from the beginning of this year, but last month also showed an inflation rate of more than 43% compared to the previous year.
In addition, agricultural, livestock and fishery products jumped 3.7% as food items such as lettuce, garlic and pork rose a lot. All I have to say is that shopping is scary.
Also, in the case of industrial products, prices rose 3.4%, the largest increase in 9 years as the price of raw materials such as international oil prices jumped.
Don't forget the rent. Jeonse rose 2.4%, the highest rate since November 2017.
<Anchor> It's
going up a lot. So when will the inflation rate stop?
<Reporter>
Unfortunately, there is a forecast that the upward trend will continue for the time being. In the future, oil prices, exchange rates, and utility rates will be variables, but the situation is not good.
First, international oil prices continue to rise. As of the 4th, the November price of Texas crude oil surged 2.3%, the highest in seven years.
The second is the exchange rate, and when the exchange rate rises, the price of imports rises and domestic prices rise.
However, the won-dollar exchange rate is at an all-time high. It closed at 1,190 won for the first time in a year and two months the previous day, and is maintaining it for the second day.
An increase in utility bills is also considered a negative factor. Electricity rates will increase from this month and will be reflected in consumer prices in October. There is also the possibility of a gas rate increase in November.
In a situation where the '1.8% increase' targeted for this year has passed, the government said, "If the inflation rate is 2%, there will be no burden on our economy." He said he would do his best to keep the inflation rate at around 2% this year.
<Anchor>
It's not just Korea's problem that prices are rising like this right now. It seems that prices all over the world are going up, but recently. Did the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have an opinion on inflation?
<Reporter> A
sharp rise in prices occurred in various fields before and after the corona virus, and in particular, global food prices soared by 40% during the pandemic.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global consumer price inflation will peak in the fourth quarter, or fall, and return to pre-COVID levels until the middle of next year. I predicted this.
However, the inflation rate is slightly different for countries with well-off and those with poorer inflation. In the case of developed countries, it will rise to 3.6% this fall and stabilize at 2% in the middle of next year. I made a prediction like this.
Emerging and developing countries, on the other hand, saw the situation poorly. The timing is similar, but the peak is 6.8%, almost 7%. Even if it falls, it is expected that inflationary pressure will remain at around 4%.
However, they also expressed the opinion that even this could be uncertain, saying that variables such as supply chain disruptions, fluctuations in raw material prices and soaring housing prices will affect the long lasting state of high inflation.
<Anchor> Since
this is a forecast, it is not certain, but in a broad sense, prices will continue to rise for the time being. There are many such prospects. But I have some questions. Korea's inflation rate is around 2%. However, if it is 2%, it is not that high, so I think that there will be no burden on the economy, and in reality, the government is in a position that there is no such burden. Conversely, this will reflect future inflation, so the economic growth rate in the second half of the year will not be good. It is said that such a view came out.
<Reporter>
However, in fact, the original target was 1.8%, but now the target has been changed. This was announced by the Korea Development Institute (KDI), a state-run research institute, and made a negative diagnosis that the economic recovery has slowed and the downside risk is increasing due to the growing global economic uncertainty. .
It was said that the economy had been sluggish for seven consecutive months until March, but in April, the word 'relief of the economic slowdown' was used, and in May, the word 'recovery' was used.
Another month ago, in September, I used the expression 'maintaining a moderate economic recovery'.
However, the diagnosis changed within a month as the word 'downward risk' was used after 6 months.
KDI has pointed out the rise in raw material prices and the sluggish face-to-face service industry as risk factors, but this time, it paid more attention to the negative signs that the face-to-face service industry slump due to the 4th spread of Corona is getting worse and the sentiment of manufacturing companies is weakening.
In addition, inflation is also cited as a risk factor because it is highly influenced by supply-side factors, such as the rise in global raw material prices.