On Tuesday, September 28, world oil prices renewed their three-year high.
During trading on the ICE exchange in London, the value of the November contract for the supply of raw materials of the Brent benchmark rose by 1.5% to $ 80.75 per barrel.
The last time a similar indicator could be observed back in October 2018.
The main reason for the observed rise in oil prices was the growing deficit in the hydrocarbon market.
Anna Zaitseva, an analyst at FG Finam, spoke about this in an interview with RT.
“The industry participants expect that the deficit in the global oil market will only increase until the end of the year.
Against the background of the recovery of the global economy, the demand for energy resources continues to grow, while the supply will remain restrained due to the fulfillment of the terms of the OPEC + deal, ”Zaitseva explained.
Recall that the OPEC + agreement includes 23 oil-producing countries, including Russia.
As part of the deal, the states jointly control the production of raw materials to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market.
Such a policy should keep oil prices from sharp fluctuations.
Moreover, problems with the resumption of crude oil production in the United States put additional pressure on the world oil supply.
This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by Vasily Karpunin, head of the information and analytical content department of BCS World of Investments.
“The United States is having difficulty recovering production after Hurricane Ida.
The process is proceeding very slowly, and the volume of production of raw materials remains almost 1 million barrels per day lower than before the hurricane.
Production increased slowly and to the point of disaster, but now the situation has only worsened, "Karpunin emphasized.
According to the latest estimates from the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Control, natural disasters in the Gulf of Mexico have suspended 16% of oil production.
Against this background, the volume of oil reserves in the United States fell to 414 million - the lowest level in the last three years.
This data is provided by the US Energy Information Administration.
According to experts, the oil prices were also supported by the record rise in gas prices in Europe.
At the auction on Tuesday, the cost of fuel on the ICE exchange rose by 12% - to € 85.8 per MWh, or $ 1.03 thousand per 1,000 cubic meters.
The achieved value became the maximum for the entire observation period.
On the eve of the heating season, European countries faced an acute shortage of gas in their storage facilities.
As a result, the states began to actively switch to the use of coal and oil, which led to an increase in prices for these resources, too, explained Vasily Karpunin.
“Usually, if the price of gas changes within 5-10%, this does not affect oil prices in any way.
However, with a multiple rise in the price of gas, the influence of this factor on the price of Brent becomes more tangible, ”the specialist added.
According to Anna Zaitseva, in the near future, oil prices may gain a foothold in the range of $ 78-82 per barrel.
However, as the balance between supply and demand in the world market is restored, the cost of raw materials may drop to the level of $ 65-70 per barrel, the analyst said.
© REUTERS / Sergei Karpukhin
According to Vasily Karpunin, due to relatively high oil prices, Russian budget revenues will exceed expenditures both at the end of 2021 and in 2022.
Moreover, the current state of affairs in the hydrocarbon market may have a positive effect on the dynamics of the ruble, the expert is sure.
“The preservation of the observed price situation on the oil and gas market is conducive to the strengthening of the national currency.
However, I will immediately note that this strengthening can only be moderate, since the Central Bank, within the framework of the budgetary rule, continues to purchase foreign currency in significant volumes, "Karpunin added.
Note that, according to the budgetary rule, during the rise in the price of hydrocarbons, the Ministry of Finance buys foreign currency through the Central Bank and thereby puts pressure on the ruble.
At the same time, in the event of a collapse in the energy market, the Ministry of Finance stops operations - and the pressure on the ruble weakens.
Such actions are necessary to gradually reduce the relationship between the dynamics of the national currency and oil prices.
However, to date, high prices for hydrocarbons continue to support the Russian currency.
Against this background, according to Anna Zaitseva, by the end of the year the dollar rate will remain in the range of $ 71.5-74 rubles.