It remains open even a few days before the election which parties will belong to the future federal government.

For German economic development, however, it is not insignificant which of the nine conceivable two or three coalitions will take over the helm.

This is shown by the latest economists panel of the Munich Ifo Institute and the FAZ. This time, a total of 153 economics professors at German universities took part in this regular survey, although not all of them answered all of the questions.

Niklas Záboji

Editor in business.

  • Follow I follow

When asked which alliance most significantly reduces income inequality, 55 percent say red-red-green.

A traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP follows behind in second place with 8 percent.

Conversely, black and yellow would most likely increase income inequality.

At 70 percent, more than two thirds of the panelists believe this.

Here, too, the other coalition options follow a long way behind.

But the reduced inequality would have its price.

In the survey, 83 percent, a clear majority of economists are convinced that a red-red-green coalition can expect the lowest economic growth in Germany at the end of the legislative period;

only a few other panelists ticked any other coalition option on this question.

The German government debt ratio would also rise more sharply under red-red-green by the middle of the decade than under any other federal government.

That's what 86 percent of the economists who took part in this question say.

"Difficult to make predictions"

When asked about the consequences of the conceivable coalition options on employment in Germany, the mood is also clearly to the disadvantage of the left-wing alliance.

77 percent of the panelists believe that red-red-green suggests the highest unemployment rate among the possible coalition options.

“This is definitely a choice of direction for economic policy: Do we want more government and more economic management or more private initiative and more competition?” Writes Düsseldorf economist Justus Haucap in the free comment field.

Dominika Langenmayr from Eichstätt-Ingolstadt is more cautious. “It is difficult to make predictions at this point because of the many different coalitions possible,” she says. It is unclear how various election programs are poured into a joint government program, especially in the case of the three-party coalitions. "If the Union were still a reliable representative of market economy policy, then the prognoses about the economic effects of different coalitions would be easier," says Jan Schnellenbach from Cottbus-Senftenberg and adds: "Unfortunately, the Union no longer plays this role."

In fact, economists' sentiment is less clear when it comes to which federal government would stimulate economic growth the most.

Most panel participants vote for a coalition of the Union and FDP, but with 44 percent only a simple majority.

A Jamaica alliance of the Union, Greens and FDP and a traffic light coalition follow with 18 percent each.

The economists also expect the lowest unemployment rate from the Union and FDP, but here too only a simple majority of 43 percent.

Jamaica and Ampel follow again with 15 percent each.

The vote is clearer with a view to the national debt ratio.

73 percent of the professors believe that black and yellow will keep this lower than any other conceivable alliance.

Jamaica follows in second place with 9 percent.