Chinanews client, Beijing, September 15 (Zuo Yukun) On September 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced housing price data for 70 cities in August.
With the full implementation of the long-term real estate mechanism in various regions and the continuous strengthening of real estate market regulation, the sales price of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline in general and the year-on-year increase.
But when the first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities finally saw the effect of increasing the regulation of the property market, the housing prices in some third- and fourth-tier cities fell "unbearable."
What's the matter with the dual sky of ice and fire in the property market?
Data map: A scene of the city.
Photo by Wang Xiaobin
It's really falling! Second-hand housing prices welcome 77-month turning point
"It is worth noting that this is the 77th consecutive month since April 2015. Except for February 2020, which is affected by the epidemic, the second-hand housing price has been reduced the most in cities and the increase has been the least in the month. Credit tightening has led to a turning point in the property market. "Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the rise in second-hand housing prices in August decreased to only 27 cities. In July, the number was still 41.
In March, second-hand housing was the hottest. The number of rising cities reached 58 and only 9 fell.
"With the current tightening of bank credit policies, the advancement of the second-hand housing reference price system, and the active management and control of school district housing, the number of cities where second-hand housing is currently falling has increased, and the housing price bubble has been eliminated," said Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute. .
"In contrast, the adjustment of the second-hand housing market exceeds that of new houses." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, also said that on the one hand, the tightening of second-hand housing guidance prices and bank loan lines has a greater effect on second-hand housing restrictions. On the other hand, Expectations of market downturns are spreading faster in the second-hand housing market.
"Decline" and "decline" have become keywords in the second-hand housing market.
In August, the sales price of second-hand housing in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.2% lower than the previous month.
The sales price of second-hand housing in second-tier cities rose 0.2% month-on-month to flat.
The sales price of second-hand housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, which was two consecutive months of decline.
From the perspective of first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou rose 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.5% month-on-month, respectively, and the growth rate fell 0.3, 0.5, and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; Shenzhen fell 0.4% month-on-month, a four-month decline.
"Second-hand housing itself can better reflect the true market heat, and the cooling performance in first-tier cities is clear." Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, believes that the market transaction volume in first-tier cities has begun to shrink, indicating that house prices will rise weakly in the next step.
Data Map: Many real estates.
Photo by Zhang Yichen
Don't drop it! Many places must be wary of downward pressure on housing prices
According to statistics from Centaline Real Estate Research Center, as of August 2021, the country's cumulative real estate regulation has exceeded 420 times.
Compared with the 368 times in the same period last year, it completely set a new historical record.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development interviewed, rectified intermediaries, restricted second-hand housing pricing, rectified operating loans, reformed land supply, encouraged leasing, and cracked down on school district housing... Some different actions appeared slowly.
“In the near future, we should focus on the performance of some cities under the'restriction order'. For cities with large house price declines, we need to pay attention to the pressure of inventory depletion while ensuring the stability of sales order. This is a new risk point.” Yan Yuejin Pointed out.
Recently, many cities have issued "restriction orders" for new houses, including Yueyang, Hunan, Jiangyin, Jiangsu, Tangshan, Hebei, Shenyang, Liaoning, Heze, Shandong, Kunming, Yunnan, and Huizhou, Guangdong.
"New houses in second-tier cities are on the cooling channel, while cooling in third-tier cities is accelerating." Zhang Bo pointed out that the second-tier cities' sales prices for second-hand houses have turned to the same month-on-month ratio, which is an important signal of market style changes.
The market changes in the third and fourth cities will be more rapid, and the hot and cold switching of the market will be more obvious.
"Combined with the'restriction orders' that have been issued in some cities, the number of cities with increased downward pressure on housing prices will continue to increase in the future, and regulatory differentiation will also appear in more cities." Zhang Bo said.
"The real estate market must not only suppress the real estate bubble, but also prevent big ups and downs. Stability is the ideal state of the property market." As the industry insiders said, whether it is a "limit order" or "limitation order", the direction of regulation is different, and the end point There is only one, and that is the word "stable".
Data map: residential area under construction.
(Drone shot) Photo by China News Agency reporter Lu Ming
Cool down drastically! The property market "golden nine silver ten" material quality is insufficient
"The third quarter is a period in which the national real estate market has cooled significantly, especially the continued tightening of credit policies in various regions and the decline in market transaction volume, which has also caused a significant drop in price indicators." Yan Yuejin believes.
Statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that the market is still under downward pressure before the end of the year, and market expectations continue to weaken.
The prosperity of the second-hand housing market in August hit the lowest level since 2019, close to the warning line for the market to turn cold; the new housing market continued to decline in activity, the demand side remained on the sidelines, and the market volume and prices continued to adjust downward.
"On the whole, various cities have definitely entered the cooling channel in August. Although the housing prices in some cities have continued to rise to a certain extent, the overall increase has slowed down. High probability trend." Zhang Bo thinks.
Do you feel the changes in housing prices?
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