Many indicators fell in August. Why do you still say that the Chinese economy is resilient?

　　(Economic Observation) Many indicators fell in August. Why do you still say that the Chinese economy is resilient?

　　China News Service, Beijing, September 15 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The epidemic situation was "in the midst of the flood". In addition, the base-up effect of the same period of the previous year appeared. The growth rate of a number of major indicators in China's economic report card for August released on the 15th declined year-on-year.

Nevertheless, the National Bureau of Statistics of China still made a judgment: the national economic development resilience continued to show that month.

Where is this kind of resilience that the official mentioned?

　　In the data disclosed that day, in August, the value added of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.5% year-on-year; from January to August, fixed asset investment increased by 8.9% year-on-year.

These figures are significantly lower than the previous value.

　　Although some of the data in August were weak, Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the current major macro indicators are still within a reasonable range.

For example, from January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size and the service industry production index increased by 6.6% and 6.2% respectively in two years, maintaining rapid growth.

In terms of people's livelihood, in the first 8 months, the average unemployment rate in the national urban survey and the increase in consumer prices were lower than the expected target of the macro-control for the whole year.

　　It is particularly worth noting that from January to August, manufacturing investment increased by an average of 3.3% in two years, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month.

According to Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, manufacturing investment is the highlight of this month's data. The relatively strong external demand has driven China's exports to maintain a rapid growth, which has formed a certain support for manufacturing investment. The early release of support for manufacturing, small, medium and micro enterprises, etc. The continued force of structural policies has also played an important role in the improvement of the manufacturing industry.

　　In recent years, China's economic work has been based on steady progress.

Although economic data fluctuates, the foundation of "stability" is constantly consolidated, and the factors of "advance" continue to accumulate, which also highlights development resilience.

　　With the mutual promotion of the domestic and international double cycles and the adherence to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, the driving effect of domestic cycles on China's economic development has become increasingly obvious.

According to statistics, in the first half of the year, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth exceeded 80%.

The expansion of domestic demand drives the increase of imports, and the expansion of external demand also promotes the growth of exports.

In the first eight months, China's total import and export of goods increased by 23.7% year-on-year, and the total volume hit a record high in the same period in history.

　　At the same time, the continuous burst of new kinetic energy helps raise the "ceiling" of development.

In the context of the global epidemic, even if the country was hit by the epidemic in July and August, the trend of technological upgrading and industrial upgrading in China's industry and service industries is still obvious.

From January to August, China's high-tech manufacturing industry grew by an average of 13.1% in two years; the information transmission, software and information technology service industries grew by an average of 14.9% in two years.

　　This series of signs reflects that China's economy is still recovering steadily.

However, the government does not shy away from the fact that the current international environment is complex and severe, and natural disasters such as the spread of domestic epidemics and floods have shown their impact on economic operations, and the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be consolidated.

　　In particular, the decline in consumption beyond market expectations is worthy of attention.

In August, the year-on-year growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods dropped by 6 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, catering revenue fell by 4.5% year-on-year and increased by 14.3% last month.

　　Fu Linghui analyzed that the recent slowdown in consumption growth was mainly due to the impact of the short-term epidemic in the flood season.

Generally speaking, the situation of China's consumption scale expansion and consumption structure upgrading has not changed.

At present, there is still great potential for the consumption of some green and smart related products, and the supply of consumer goods related to the aging of the population has great potential.

In the next stage, we will increase effective supply and continue to increase the production of smart homes, smart home appliances, and low-carbon products.

　　Regarding the follow-up macro policy trend, Wen Bin believes that the pressure on economic growth may increase in the next stage, and we must continue to increase efforts to boost domestic demand.

He suggested that we should do a good job of cross-cycle adjustment and increase support for stable growth.

Further play the role of infrastructure investment underpinning, moderately speed up the issuance of local government special bonds, improve the efficiency of capital use, and give full play to the role of special bonds in stabilizing investment and stabilizing growth.

　　At the same time, it is necessary to continue to increase support for key areas and weak links, make good use of the 300 billion yuan of the central bank’s new small and medium-sized re-loans, and promote more funds to flow to market entities such as small, medium and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, and make good use of them. Stabilize the balance between growth and risk prevention.

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