China-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 14 (Xiong Siyi) On the evening of the 13th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in August. The year-on-year increase in 11 provinces was lower than the national average, and the CPI in 4 provinces including Sichuan dropped year-on-year. .

Prices dropped in 4 provinces

　　In August 2021, the national CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, and the rate of increase was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month.

Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in August, all regions and departments continued to do a good job of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. The consumer market was generally supplied with sufficient supply and prices were operating steadily.

　　In terms of regions, the CPI of 15 provinces of Ningxia, Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai exceeded the national average in August; the CPI of Hebei Province’s increase in August was the same as that of the country; Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Anhui, Hubei, Fujian and other 11 provinces in August The CPI rose year-on-year, but the rate of increase was lower than that of the whole country; the CPI of Hunan, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Sichuan fell year-on-year in August, with the largest decrease of 0.3% in Sichuan.

　　Compared with July, 20 provinces including Tianjin, Gansu, Shaanxi and other 20 provinces saw a drop in CPI year-on-year growth, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guizhou even "turned positive to negative" year-on-year CPI year-on-year growth. Six provinces including Chongqing, Fujian, and Hubei increased their CPI year-on-year growth rates in August. The same as in July.

　　Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist of Everbright Securities, believes that in

August, the national CPI fell to 0.8% year-on-year, which was lower than market expectations, mainly due to the drag of pig prices, oil prices, and travel service prices.

How do prices go in the future?

　　Xu Dongshi, a macroeconomic analyst at China Galaxy Securities, pointed out that August was still the off-season for pork consumption, coupled with the weak rebound in pork prices, pig farmers’ wait-and-see sentiment was weakened. After

falling

below the cost price,

pork prices are expected to stabilize from September to October.

　　Xu Dongshi also pointed out that vegetable prices fluctuated upward in August, and hot weather and heavy rain alternated, affecting vegetable prices.

But overall, the increase in vegetable prices in August is still similar to that in previous years. From the perspective of weather conditions

, vegetable prices in September will still increase slightly.

　　Data map: Vegetables on supermarket shelves.

Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei

　　Looking forward to the whole year, Gao Ruidong and others said that considering the low base in

November

last year, there

is a high probability

that

November will be the high point of the CPI during the year.

Guojun Macro's Dong Qi team also believes that due to the low base, the CPI is expected to rise moderately during the year, and the November high is expected to reach around 2.2% in a neutral scenario.

　　Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, pointed out that based on the actual situation in China, under the influence of the "clearing" policy, the impact of the recurrence of the epidemic on consumer demand is far greater than the impact on the supply of consumer goods, so the CPI has insufficient motivation to repair upwards. Lower the full-year CPI forecast to 0.9%.

　　Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, predicts that by the middle of next year, the CPI will be basically stable year-on-year.

Neutral expects that the CPI for the full year of 2021 will be around 0.9% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter, the CPI may be close to 2% year-on-year due to the lift-up factors. However, by the first half of 2022, it is expected that the CPI will continue to maintain a steady year-on-year trend.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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