Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 7th (Dong Xiangyi) How did the real estate market perform in the previous August?
The "August 2021 National 40 Cities New Commercial Housing Transaction Report" released by the E-House Real Estate Research Institute on the 6th shows that in August 2021, the transaction area of newly constructed commercial housing in 40 typical cities decreased by 13.6% month-on-month and 31.0% year-on-year.
Since the year-on-year growth rate turned negative for the first time in May, it has fallen for three consecutive months.
In terms of cities, in the first 8 months, the top ten cities with the year-on-year growth rate of new house transactions in 40 cities were: Xiamen, Zhuhai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Chongqing.
Analysts said that in recent months, the impact of regulatory policies on the property market has become more and more obvious, and the time from policy introduction to market changes is shortening.
It is expected that in the next few months, the impact of regulation on the transaction of new houses will continue to "ferment", and the transaction volume of new houses will continue to fall.
It is understood that the 40 typical cities reported in the above report include 4 first-tier cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen; 18 second-tier cities including Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao, and Hangzhou; and Yangzhou, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Yueyang, and Wuxi. Waiting for 18 third- and fourth-tier cities.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
40 cities' new house transactions have fallen for 3 consecutive months
The report shows that in August 2021, the transaction area of newly-built commercial housing in 40 typical cities monitored by E-House Research Institute was 23.249 million square meters, down 13.6% from the previous month and 31.0% year-on-year.
Since May, the year-on-year growth rate turned negative for the first time in the year, the transaction volume of newly-built commercial residential buildings has declined year-on-year for three consecutive months.
According to the analysis of the report, affected by the low base in the same period last year, the moving average year-on-year growth rate of newly-built commercial residential buildings peaked in May 2021 and continued to decline thereafter.
The year-on-year growth rate in the first eight months was 4.4%, which was 18.4 percentage points lower than that in the previous seven months, and continued to maintain a rapid downward trend.
The main reason is that the transaction base rose after the epidemic gradually stabilized in June last year. At the same time, with the continuous strengthening of regulation in the first half of this year, the new commercial residential market has cooled significantly.
The report predicts that the curve will continue to decline in the next few months.
In September, 40 cities' newly-built commercial housing transaction area in the past six months' moving average year-on-year growth rate will turn from positive to negative.
Xiamen's new house transactions soared by 115.3% in the first eight months
The report shows that in the first eight months, the year-on-year growth rates of newly-built commercial housing transactions in first-, second-, and third- and fourth-tier cities were 54.2%, 20.1%, and 5.8%, respectively.
"From a policy point of view, since the new housing policies in first-tier and strong second-tier cities are already very tight, the focus of regulation in these cities in August is more inclined to second-hand housing, while weak second- and third-tier cities focus on strengthening the supervision of new houses. It
is expected to be supported by the regulation policy
.
In the next few months, all three types of cities will continue to cool down.” The report analyzes.
In terms of cities, in the first eight months, the top ten cities with the year-on-year growth rate of newly-built commercial residential transactions in 40 cities were:
Xiamen, Zhuhai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Chongqing.
Among them, the area of new housing transactions in Xiamen in August increased by 28.9% month-on-month and 81.6% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate in the first eight months was 115.3%, ranking first among the 40 cities.
Zhuhai increased by 108.7% year-on-year in the first eight months of the year, mainly due to the low base in the same period last year, and since the beginning of this year, new housing transactions have been hot, showing a clear shortage of demand.
According to the report, in the first 8 months, there were 13 cities with a negative year-on-year cumulative year-on-year growth in the area of newly-built commercial housing transactions in 40 cities, an increase of 5 compared with July.
The bottom five cities are Shaoguan, Nanning, Luoyang, Changsha, and Huai'an.
Among them, Shaoguan is a relatively underdeveloped area in Guangdong. Since the second half of last year, property market transactions have been sluggish. In the first eight months of this year, the year-on-year growth rate dropped by 31.3%, and the growth rate has been the lowest among the 40 cities for 5 consecutive months.
Similarly, Nanning has also ranked second in terms of cumulative year-on-year growth at the beginning of the 5th consecutive month, and the market is relatively sluggish.
According to the analysis of the report, from the perspective of city ranking characteristics, the top cities are mainly first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities, and most of them are southern coastal cities in terms of geographic location; the lower-ranked cities are mainly weak third-tier cities with geographical locations. The upper part of the central and southwestern regions.
According to Pan Hongyu, a researcher at E-House Research Institute, first- and second-tier cities are more flexible and more sensitive to regulatory policies.
In the first two months of this year, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the first-tier cities has the largest increase, so the rebound is the most obvious under the cooling state, and the fall is the fastest; the third-tier cities have the smallest increase, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate has fallen to 0 in the first 8 months. Near the axis; the year-on-year growth rate of second-tier cities is between that of first-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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