(Economic Observation) How will China's thermal power transform towards carbon neutrality?
China News Service, Beijing, September 5 (Reporter Pang Wuji) The energy transition path (from coal to oil, natural gas to renewable energy) of early industrialized countries such as Europe and the United States is different. Due to the constraints of time and status quo, 2060 will be achieved. China must take a completely innovative path for its carbon neutrality target for the year.
As one of the few countries in the world that uses coal as the main energy source, how does China's energy structure adjustment and zero-carbon power generation need to transform thermal power?
Wang Zhongying, director of the Energy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, pointed out at a forum at the China International Trade Fair on the 5th that carbon reduction is not about shutting down thermal power plants, but reducing the number of hours that thermal power plants operate.
Imagine if the number of hours were reduced by half, what wealth would it be?
"I never think that 1.2 billion kilowatts of thermal power installed capacity is a burden, it is a'treasure'." Wang Zhongying said, but it needs to be used well, and the current closed system of the energy system must be opened.
Chen Deming, president of the China Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment, also said frankly here that China’s reality is that the current energy structure is based on coal. China’s electricity is essentially coal and carbon electricity, and it is difficult to fundamentally change this energy structure in the short term. .
Pan Yuelong, chairman of the Supervisory Board of the China Electricity Council, stated that the carbon dioxide produced by China's energy utilization accounts for as much as 88% of total carbon dioxide emissions, of which the power industry accounts for about 40% of the energy industry's emissions.
Therefore, many experts pointed out that China's road to carbon reduction means that it needs to build a modern energy system and make renewable energy the dominant one. The breakthrough lies in the construction of a new type of power system and the realization of green power.
Feng Kai, deputy chief engineer and director of the Development Planning Department of the State Grid Corporation of China, said that it is expected that the installed capacity of wind power and solar power in 2030 will exceed that of coal power and become the largest power source in China; the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will increase from 16% in 2020. % Increased to about 25%.
Traditional thermal power will accelerate the transformation.
Jiang Fan, chairman of Beijing Energy Group Co., Ltd., pointed out that although building an energy system with new energy as the mainstay is the future development direction, coal-fired thermal power will still play the role of ballast and stabilizer for a period of time.
Coal power will play an indispensable role in ensuring power safety and providing flexibility in peak shaving for renewable energy within a certain period of time.
Jiang Fan pointed out that in the future, it will promote wind and fire bundling, green power generation of hydrogen, and carbon dioxide recovery and recycling to provide new attempts and new solutions for the transformation of traditional thermal power generation enterprises.
Feng Kai also revealed that the State Grid's preliminary plan is to fully build a new power system by 2050.
The next 15 years is the construction period. New energy installed capacity will gradually become the largest power source, and conventional power sources will gradually be transformed into regulated and guaranteed power sources; 2030 to 2060 is the mature period, new energy sources will gradually become the main body of electricity supply, and thermal power will pass CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage) technology for emissions has become a long-term regulated power source.
This new power system has the characteristics of clean, low-carbon, safe and controllable, flexible and efficient, intelligent and friendly, and open and interactive.
Regarding China's emission reduction commitments and efforts, Akasi, chief economist of the World Bank's China Bureau, said that it is very important to China and the world.
Achieving carbon neutrality means that all sectors of the economy must undergo transformation.
It is not only necessary to meet China's growing energy demand, but also to deal with the possible negative impacts of industrial transformation on workers, employment, business, and communities.
However, Ikas believes that China can lead the green transformation of emerging markets and build itself as a model to lead the development of other emerging economies in the field of renewable energy.
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