What impact will the introduction of Guangzhou's second-hand housing reference price have on the property market? Yangcheng Evening News reporter visited the site
The intermediary withdrew the price of the relevant housing, and some owners suspend the listing urgently
Yangcheng Evening News reporter Xu Weilun and Chen Yuxia
On the evening of August 31, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Notice on Establishing a Reference Price Release Mechanism for Second-hand Housing Transaction" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which announced the first batch of second-hand housing in 96 residential communities in hot areas in Guangzhou. Transaction reference price.
The reporter found that the reference price announced in the "Notice" was basically 70%-80% of the market transaction price this year, which caused heated discussions in the industry and the market.
On September 1, a reporter from the Yangcheng Evening News visited several residential communities in hotspots and found that many intermediary ground shops had urgently removed their listing prices.
On the evening of the 1st, housing agency websites such as Shell also removed transaction data. The agency said that most of the owners who put the listings were on the sidelines.
Experts believe that the publication of the reference price of second-hand housing will cut off the cycle of intermediary (owner) listing prices driving up the transaction price. It is expected that the transaction volume of second-hand housing will drop significantly in the next three months.
Reporter visited
Listing owners cannot find the average price on the wait-and-see online platform
After the "Notice" is issued, will each market entity implement the reference price?
There is a lot of discussion in the industry.
According to statistics, the first batch of hotspot residential communities announced are mainly distributed in Tianhe District (54) and Huangpu District (23), and the rest are distributed in Panyu District (8), Haizhu District (7) and Yuexiu District (4). indivual).
Taking Tianhe as an example, many communities located in the core area of Zhujiang New City, such as Poly Xinyu Garden and Zhonghai Huachengwan, have reference prices of 96,957 yuan per square meter and 92,641 yuan per square meter respectively, and they are listed on the intermediary platform for 180,000 yuan per square meter. Compared with the unit price of 190,000 yuan, it can be described as "cut in half."
According to Crane data, the first batch of 96 community transaction reference prices announced are basically 70%-80% of this year's market transaction price, but it is relatively close to the single transaction price for the entire year of 2020.
Among them, the difference between the reference price of nearly 70% of the community and its second-hand transaction price in 2020 is about 10%.
In other words, entering 2021, the transaction prices of second-hand housing in the first batch of 96 communities that announced the reference price have risen significantly.
A reporter from the Yangcheng Evening News visited the Zhujiang New Town and found that many intermediary shops urgently removed relevant housing information or replaced specific prices with words such as "surprise price" on September 1.
A staff member of an intermediary shop near Poly Xinyu Garden said: “At present, most of the owners who are listing are in a wait-and-see state. If they are not in urgent need of funds, they will not easily reduce prices. The "Notice" has no obvious impact on the market for the time being." The intermediary revealed, Poly Xin The average price of second-hand houses in Yuhuayuan is still 140,000-150,000 per square meter.
The reporter saw in an intermediary shop outside the Junfengyuan community that the housing information of the community has not been removed yet. The price of second-hand houses listed in Junfengyuan remains at 100,000 to 150,000 yuan per square meter, which is significantly higher than The reference price is 80747 yuan/square meter.
During the reporter's visit, an owner of Junfeng Court came to the intermediary shop and said that it would postpone the listing.
"I came over today immediately after seeing the news last night. If the price is reduced so much, it will not be sold." The owner said.
The first batch of 4 communities in Yuexiu District that announced the reference price are all located along Dongfeng East Road. There are Dongfeng East Road Primary School, Yucai School and other well-known schools nearby.
The reference price of second-hand houses in these four communities is 69 thousand yuan-82,000 yuan / square meter, and the intermediary platform shows that the average listed price is no less than 100,000 yuan / square meter.
The reporter visited the nearby intermediary shops and found that it was difficult to find the housing information of these 4 communities, but the other communities were still displayed normally.
A real estate agent told reporters that most of the groups buying properties nearby are for their children to enroll in surrounding schools, and there is a strong demand for qualified housing and they are not worried about price cuts.
The intermediary even said bluntly: “Since last June, the price of some houses has increased by 10,000 yuan per square meter. At present, the detailed rules of the "Notice" have not been published, and everything is operated according to the original." The transfer cycle of school-qualified housing is relatively short, and the price is firm, and sellers will not lower the price.
The "Notice" mentioned that real estate brokerage agencies, real estate network information publishing platforms, etc. should conduct self-examination of listed housing, and shall not publish second-hand housing housing with inflated prices.
In the evening of September 1st, the reporter found that the second-hand housing "checking" function of online intermediary platforms Shell, Lianjia, etc. was removed from the shelves, and the average price of the 96 communities that had announced reference prices could not be found. These communities were selling houses. There are only a few sets of sources left.
Not only that, on these two platforms, all second-hand housing estates in Guangzhou have been unable to inquire past transaction records.
expert's point
Second-hand housing prices are expected to fall in the next three to six months
The reporter interviewed a number of real estate agents, and they have different attitudes towards the second-hand housing reference price policy.
Some intermediaries expressed their support, and said that if the price is really reduced, more buyers will be attracted; and more intermediaries believe that the introduction of the policy will inevitably lead to a decline in transaction volume and loss of performance.
In fact, before the "Notice" was released, the number of Guangzhou second-hand housing network signings had been on a downward trend.
According to data released by the Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association, in August this year (the statistical cycle is from July 26, 2021 to August 25, 2021), the overall number of online signings and the area of online signings for second-hand housing in the city were 8,535 and 821,700 square meters were down 4.23% and 3.10% month-on-month, and down 44.11% and 43.32% year-on-year.
In terms of mortgage payment ratio (calculated according to the number of online signings), according to the Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association data, in August, Guangzhou intermediaries contributed to a second-hand residential mortgage payment ratio that fell by 2.66 percentage points from the previous month to 53.11%, which is the fifth consecutive month of a month-on-month decline. .
In addition, some buyers worry that the bank will evaluate the loan amount based on the reference price, that is, the loan amount will decrease, the transaction price will remain unchanged, and the down payment will increase.
The reporter called the business manager of a branch of China Guangfa Bank Guangzhou Branch and learned that all branches of China Guangfa Bank in Guangzhou will use the transaction reference price as one of the considerations for conducting business.
The business manager of a branch of Minsheng Bank Guangzhou Branch said that the current loan approval process is relatively complicated, and the policy has just come out. Whether to apply for a loan at a second-hand housing reference price depends on the actual situation.
Xiao Wenxiao, chief analyst of the Guangfo area of Crane, said that if the reference price of second-hand housing is applied to the mortgage loan business of banks, it will inevitably have a major impact on second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou. Under the general background, market adjustment and industry adjustment are inevitable.
Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that the price limit of first-hand housing is the current trend, but this will cause the prices of second-hand housing and first-hand housing to go upside down, and the result is a "new craze."
The implementation of the reference price of second-hand housing can guide owners and intermediaries' listing prices to become more rational, cutting off the circulation of listing prices, promoting buyers' market expectations, and driving up transaction prices.
Huang Tao, general manager of the Guangzhou project department of Centaline Real Estate, said that since the introduction of the "421" New Deal in the Guangzhou property market, the second-hand housing prices in the Zhujiang New Town and other hot areas have been on a downward trend, but in general they are still "increasing more and falling less."
The introduction of the second-hand housing reference price is a specific measure of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations", which will play a certain role in promoting the sound development of the real estate market.
Huang Tao believes that according to past experience, if the volume of transactions continues to decline for three months, prices will be affected. Therefore, it is expected that the second-hand house prices will decline to a certain extent in the next three to six months.
Huang Tao said: "In these three months, it will have a greater impact on real estate agency companies. From a long-term perspective, real estate agencies have to make adjustments and preparations for a healthier market."
Xiao Wenxiao said that under the policy of "housing to live without speculation", commercial housing will return to more residential properties in the future, its investment properties will be weakened, and the story of "real estate speculation" is going away.
Policy Guidance
The purpose of publishing the reference price of second-hand housing is to stabilize expectations
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July this year, Guangzhou was the city with the highest year-on-year growth in first-hand housing and second-hand housing in the first-tier cities.
According to the policy interpretation of the "Notice" issued by the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the establishment of a second-hand housing transaction reference price release mechanism is an important measure to implement the real estate regulation requirements and build a long-term real estate mechanism, which is conducive to further improving the Guangzhou second-hand housing market Information transparency provides market reference for second-hand housing transactions, regulates transaction order, and stabilizes market expectations.
Since the beginning of this year, many cities across the country, including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Chengdu, Dongguan, and Xi'an, have successively implemented second-hand housing reference prices. The second-hand housing market in most cities has significantly reduced transaction volume after the implementation of the reference price.
According to statistics from the Research and Development Department of Central Plains, Guangzhou, from the perspective of comparable cities, Shenzhen and Shanghai, which have relatively mature second-hand markets, have a short-term decline in transaction volume between 30% and 60%.
In addition, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that since Shenzhen announced the second-hand housing reference price in February this year, the rate of increase in second-hand housing prices has declined month by month, with prices falling from May to July.