On Wednesday, September 1, the Russian currency showed mixed dynamics during the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange.
Thus, the dollar rate decreased by less than 0.01% - to 73.21 rubles, and the euro rate rose by 0.08% - to 86.52 rubles.
According to experts interviewed by RT, in the coming month one of the determining factors for the Russian currency may be the actions of the Central Bank.
In particular, investors' attention will be focused on the results of the Central Bank meeting on September 10.
As expected, during the meeting, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will make a decision on the key rate.
“The regulator is highly likely to raise the interest rate again.
The size of the increase will depend on the inflation data, which will be released on the eve of the meeting.
The higher inflation is in August, the more significant the rate increase may be, "Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari information and analytical center, told RT.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, as of August 23, annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 6.68%.
In these conditions, the Central Bank at its September meeting may raise the key rate by at least 0.25 percentage points - up to 6.75% per annum, said Natalia Milchakova.
Note that the growth of the key rate, in addition to curbing inflation, traditionally increases the attractiveness of ruble-denominated assets and, in particular, federal loan bonds (OFZ).
As a result, the inflow of investments to the Russian financial market may increase.
“Thus, the relatively tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the resulting high OFZ yields are capable of attracting foreign investors.
This, in turn, should support the ruble, "Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market BCS World of Investments, explained in a conversation with RT.
In addition, foreign exchange market players will continue to closely monitor the dynamics of world oil prices.
According to Natalia Milchakova, keeping quotes above $ 70 per barrel should have a positive effect on the ruble.
Meanwhile, the results of the meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC + deal will be of great importance for oil prices in early autumn.
This opinion was shared by the chief analyst of TeleTrade Group Mark Goikhman in an interview with RT.
“At a meeting on the evening of September 1, the OPEC + countries may abandon the previously planned increase in oil production.
This may be due to concerns that the global demand for energy resources is still not high enough.
Such a decision would contribute to the rise in oil prices, ”Goikhman said.
At the same time, a worsening situation with a pandemic in the world may have a negative impact on the global energy market, Natalya Milchakova does not rule out.
According to her, a new wave of growth in the incidence of coronavirus can slow down the recovery of the global economy.
In this case, as the analyst suggests, demand and oil prices may decline, which will put some pressure on the ruble.
© REUTERS / Jonathan Alcorn
According to experts, the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on September 21-22 may become a landmark event for the Russian currency and the world financial market as a whole.
According to analysts, following the meeting, the leadership of the Federal Reserve may indicate the timing of changes in the current monetary policy.
Recall that in the spring of 2020, against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the American regulator lowered the interest rate to almost zero and launched a quantitative easing program.
The Fed began printing dollars and buying up government bonds in an unlimited amount on the stock market.
Such a policy should lead to an increase in the money supply in the financial system and accelerate the economic recovery from the consequences of the coronavirus.
At the same time, the actions of the Fed are helping to accelerate inflation in the country.
“Although an increase in interest rates in the US at the September meeting is not expected, it is likely that the Federal Open Market Committee will name a specific timeline for the start of curtailing the quantitative easing program.
Such a decision can strengthen the position of the dollar on the international market, including against the ruble, ”noted Natalya Milchakova.
At the same time, experts interviewed by RT do not expect sharp fluctuations in the Russian foreign exchange market in the near future.
So, according to Natalia Milchakova, if the current conditions are preserved, in September the dollar exchange rate will be in the range of 72-76 rubles, and the euro rate - around 86-89 rubles.
Dmitry Babin adheres to a similar assessment.
“If the situation on the world market does not show significant changes, the dollar exchange rate in September is likely to remain in the corridor of 72.7-75.4 rubles, and the euro rate will fluctuate around the current level of 86-89 rubles,” the analyst concluded.