Which industries will benefit from the liberalization of "three children"?
Our reporter Wang Wenzheng
The comprehensive "three-child" policy has been implemented!
Not long ago, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Decision on Optimizing Fertility Policies to Promote Long-term and Balanced Population Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "Decision"), implementing the policy that a couple can have three children, and supporting measures for active childbirth.
On August 20, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress voted to pass a decision on amending the Population and Family Planning Law, raising the comprehensive "three-child" policy to the legal level.
The "Decision" proposes to develop an inclusive childcare service system, vigorously develop various forms of inclusive services, and cultivate national brands in such industries as childcare services, milk powder milk industry, animation design and production, etc.
What opportunities will the liberalization of "three children" bring to all walks of life?
How to seize the opportunity to promote the rapid development of related industries and give full play to the supporting role of active childbirth?
Develop an inclusive childcare service system
"When bringing a newborn, Bao Ma can take maternity leave and breastfeeding leave; there is a kindergarten for children over 3 years old. Children from 1 to 3 years old are the most tiring, and they can walk away and talk and make troubles. You can't miss your eyes." Xiong Hui is a mother of two children. Her husband is busy at work and often lives in the dormitory of the unit. The eldest daughter will go to elementary school in the urban area far away from home in September. The younger son has just turned 2 years old.
It is difficult for Xiong Hui to take his daughter to and from school and take care of his son who has not yet entered the kindergarten: "If there are more nurseries that accept children of this age, parents can save a lot of worry."
The reporter combed through the data of enterprises and found that there are 38,511 enterprises related to the childcare industry in the country.
From 2014 to 2019, the annual growth rate of the number of newly registered childcare enterprises nationwide remained above 50%.
In 2020, the number of newly registered childcare enterprises reached 13,744, which was quadrupled from the previous year; in 2021, the number of newly registered childcare enterprises had exceeded 14,000 as of early August, exceeding the full-year level of 2020.
Lu Jiehua, professor of the Department of Sociology of Peking University and vice president of the Chinese Society of Demography, said in an interview with our reporter that with the optimization and adjustment of the fertility policy, the childcare service industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Behind it is the improvement of the residents' living standards and the upgrading of the concepts of fertility, nurturing and education.
Nevertheless, the current nursery service system still faces many problems.
The total number of institutions providing childcare services is still small, the fees are high, the development level of the childcare industry for children under 3 years old is low, and the construction of the childcare service talent team is relatively lagging... The reporter found in the interview that the realization of high-quality childcare services It is the common expectation of young parents to have some trust, and it is also a "must-answer question" for the long-term balanced development of the population.
The "inclusive nursing service system" is the high-frequency word in the "Decision".
Lu Jiehua said that the "Decision" proposed the implementation of the three-child policy and supporting measures, with the focus on giving play to the incentives and services of supporting measures for childbirth, nurturing, and education. The development of the inclusive childcare service system is a key measure among them.
Specifically, the "Decision" makes arrangements for the development of the inclusive childcare service system from many aspects: develop new business formats such as smart childcare; play the guiding and leveraging role of investment in the central budget to promote the construction of a group of convenient, accessible, affordable Acceptable and quality-guaranteed childcare service institutions; encourage state-owned enterprises and other entities to actively participate in the construction of the inclusive childcare service system promoted by governments at all levels; support domestic enterprises to expand childcare services; encourage and support qualified kindergartens to recruit 2 to 3 Toddlers and so on.
"The "Decision" proposes to develop an inclusive childcare service system, with the focus on'inclusiveness'." Lu Jiehua pointed out that the various measures introduced this time are aimed at fully mobilizing the forces of the market and various social entities, and development is well accessible. The development of childcare industry will promote the development of childcare industry, and create a childcare service system led by the government, market regulation, extensive social participation, and affordable by the masses.
It is expected that the childcare industry will usher in great development in the next few years.
Cultivate domestic brands such as milk powder and animation
"Chinese children have a relatively high rate of inborn lactose intolerance, so you can’t blindly believe in foreign brands when buying milk powder. From the experience of feeding my baby, domestic milk powder is pretty good." Liaoning mother Xie Ying’s daughter is more than half years old and she is breastfeeding. The feeding phase transitions to the mixed feeding phase.
Xie Ying shopped around and finally chose a domestic brand of infant formula milk powder.
"Many of the cartoons that are most popular with children are from abroad. My daughter likes "Little Pig Peppa" the most." Zhang Xin, a "post-90s" in Chongqing, introduced that he bought many cartoon peripheral products for his children, such as plush. Toys, clothing, tableware, etc.
Zhang Xin recalled that when he was a child, many domestic animations left a deep impression on him.
"Our generation often watch "Blue Cat Naughty 3000 Questions", which is very interesting, has scientific value, and is entertaining. I hope that there will be more such good domestic animations." Zhang Xin said.
It has become a common call for practitioners and consumers to expand and strengthen domestic brands in the infant and child-related industries.
Take the powdered milk industry as an example.
In recent years, China's dairy industry has developed well, and domestic brands have continued to grow.
Data show that by 2019, the market share of domestic milk powder has climbed to 49%.
In June of the same year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "Action Plan for the Improvement of Domestic Infant Formula Milk Powder", which proposed to strive to stabilize the self-sufficiency level of infant formula milk powder at more than 60%.
The "2021 China Milk Industry Quality Report" recently released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in 2020, China's milk production will be 35.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and the sampling inspection rate of infant formula milk powder will reach 99.89%.
As for the animation industry, iResearch’s previously released "China Animation Industry Research Report" pointed out that China is ushering in a small population boom for low-age animation audiences.
As content that can be integrated with multiple industries such as toys, apparel, home furnishing, and cultural tourism, the low-child animation industry has long been optimistic.
The "Decision" emphasizes the cultivation of national brands in such industries as childcare services, milk powder and milk industry, animation design and production, and encourages the development and growth of related industries.
Lu Jiehua believes that cultivating national brands in such industries as childcare services, milk powder milk industry, animation design and production is of great significance to the growth of the industry and the promotion of long-term balanced population development.
"Strong local brands can more accurately meet the localization needs of domestic consumers, promote the improvement of people's livelihood and welfare, and at the same time boost the influence and competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing, better base the domestic cycle, and help build a new development pattern." Lu Jiehua Say.
Consumption upgrade and industry upgrade in sync
The opportunities brought by the "three-child" policy to the market are not just in the areas of childcare, milk powder and other areas explicitly mentioned in the "Decision".
From the perspective of supply, practitioners in multiple industries stated in interviews that the liberalization of the "three children" will bring new opportunities to their industries.
"The ratio of room types will change." Zhao Jianjun, a franchisee of a light luxury chain hotel brand in Beijing, has recently planned to close its business for renovations to adapt to the new needs brought about by changes in the family structure.
Zhao Jianjun introduced, "Our building was originally rented to an economical chain hotel. The room types are mainly twin rooms and double rooms. The rooms are small in size and suitable for couples or business travelers. A family of three can also squeeze. , But if a family of four or more comes, it will be difficult to receive it."
"Nearby attractions and universities have attracted many tourists, many of them are two-child families, and now we are letting go of the'three-child'. We plan to launch more family rooms, especially the larger suites, to bring this group of higher spending powers Transform into customers." Zhao Jianjun is full of confidence in the prospects of the hotel after the renovation.
From the demand side, the new birth policy will affect all aspects of the family's clothing, food, housing, and transportation. This is accompanied by profound changes in residents' consumption needs and has also attracted industry attention.
"There are too many children, and the car should be changed. A four-seater minivan is enough for a family of three. A family of four may be more suitable for urban SUVs. If you have three children, you should consider switching to a seven-seater business." The family is in Guangzhou. Chen Chen, who lives and has two children, introduced that after the birth of his second daughter two years ago, he replaced 70% of his new cars with a joint venture brand five-seater SUV.
"This car is a good value. I usually use it for commuting to work, picking up children, returning to my hometown during the New Year, and occasionally traveling by car in the province. I ran nearly 40,000 kilometers in two years." Chen Chen said.
Industry insiders pointed out that benefiting from the adjustment of the fertility policy, demand in many industries is expanding.
According to the White Paper on Maternal and Infant Industry for 2021 Mass Engines issued by relevant agencies, as of April 2021, sales of six major categories of maternal and infant products in the domestic market (baby milk powder, baby diapers, pacifiers, feeding bottles, breast pumps, and baby food) In 12 months, it maintained a compound annual growth rate of 4.3%, and the market size exceeded 16 billion yuan.
The white paper predicts that the increase in the number of births with three births will bring huge opportunities to the consumer market in the maternal and infant industry in the next few years, and thereafter create more demand for the consumer market for children of different ages.
"The various industries related to infants and young children face strong consumer heterogeneity. To achieve a good connection between supply and demand, the key is to do a good job in customer segmentation and product segmentation, and coordinate to meet the diversification of high-end, mid-range, economical, etc. Demand." Lu Jiehua said.
While the industry is facing opportunities for consumption upgrades and industrial upgrades, regulatory measures must also be strengthened simultaneously.
The "Decision" clarified the government's regulatory responsibilities in the development of related industries, and made more detailed regulations on strengthening comprehensive supervision.
"With the implementation of the'three-child' fertility policy and the promotion of the growth of related industries under the new population development pattern, in the final analysis, it must fall on the focus of'people's livelihood' to ensure that the supporting measures for active childbirth are inclusive." Lu Jiehua said, the government It is necessary to supervise and regulate the market operation of related industries, accelerate the improvement of the industry standard system, and ensure that the development of related industries and enterprises is guided by improving people's livelihood, taking into account economic and social benefits, so as to further reduce the cost of fertility, nurturing, and education for residents.