How big is the impact of natural gas price fluctuations
Our reporter Wang Yichen
Rising prices, this time it is natural gas.
With the gradual improvement of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, natural gas prices have risen rapidly since the beginning of this year in a market environment where supply exceeds demand, reaching historical highs.
Statistics show that natural gas in Asia has grown 6 times in the past year, and Europe has risen by as much as 10 times in 14 months. Fluctuations in the natural gas market involve people's nerves.
What impact will the increase in natural gas prices have on production and life?
How to position the role of natural gas under the "dual carbon" goal?
How to guarantee the stable supply of natural gas in the medium and long term?
These issues have attracted much attention.
Rapid price increase has caused many concerns
On August 24, the A-share natural gas sector continued its strength the previous day, collectively rising, and taking over the hot spots.
As of the close, the sector as a whole rose by more than 4%, and individual stocks such as Chase Gas, Changchun Gas, Chongqing Gas, Xinjiang Torch, and Guizhou Gas had their daily limit.
Behind the fiery capital market is the continuous rise in international natural gas prices.
The US natural gas futures price hit a new low of US$1.517 in 2020, but this year it has regained its upward trend. US natural gas futures reached a stage high of US$4.2 per million British thermal units on August 5.
Many countries, from companies to consumers, have felt the pressure brought about by rising natural gas prices.
Large fluctuations in international natural gas prices are also transmitted to the country.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the market price monitoring of important means of production in the national circulation field in early August 2021, showing that liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose 10.2% month-on-month to 5,402.5 yuan per ton, while the comprehensive price of LNG in my country last year was around 2,500 yuan per ton. float.
Talking about the reasons for the increase in natural gas prices, Liu Yijun, a professor at China University of Petroleum, analyzed that it was mainly affected by factors such as global economic recovery, serious over-issue of the U.S. dollar, long-term low prices, extreme weather, and global energy transition.
"On the one hand, as the economy recovers steadily, demand for natural gas has risen sharply in a short period of time; on the other hand, under the influence of long-term low prices and the epidemic, upstream oil and gas exploration and development investment is insufficient, and supply cannot keep up. This contradiction between supply and demand is direct. Affected the price of natural gas. In addition, the serious excess of US dollars generated to stimulate the economy has further aggravated price volatility."
The natural gas industry is not only an energy production industry, but also related to the national economy and people's livelihood.
"From the current situation, as long as my country's economic situation remains stable and improving, and the international political environment does not change drastically, oil and gas price fluctuations will not have a major impact." Liu Yijun said that after 2018, my country has increasingly emphasized energy security issues. The investment in exploration and development has been increased, and related problems have been resolved through a series of monetary policy adjustments.
"As long as my country's economy maintains a certain growth rate, it can withstand the rise in international natural gas prices."
Reshaping the role of natural gas under the "dual carbon" goal
For a long time, compared with coal reserves, natural gas is not my country's advantageous resource.
Compared with new energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power, natural gas is not clean enough and is in an embarrassing position in the energy structure.
However, as the "dual carbon" goal is proposed, the role of natural gas as a "bridge" in my country's energy green and low-carbon transition has become increasingly prominent.
According to Liu Manping, a senior economist at the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, the "dual carbon" target will have a major impact on my country's economic and social development, accelerate my country's energy transition and energy revolution, and force a clean energy transition.
Natural gas is the fossil energy with the least carbon emissions and is highly flexible. The vigorous development of natural gas is of great significance for reducing carbon emissions.
At present and for a long period of time in the future, my country's energy development has entered a development stage where incremental substitution and stock substitution coexist. Fossil energy, including natural gas, is not only the "ballast" to ensure energy security, but also a high proportion of new energy sources. The "stabilizer" of power safety under the new power system.
"People will re-understand the important role of natural gas, and the importance of natural gas as a'bridge' in the energy transition will be significantly increased." Liu Yijun said.
The "China Natural Gas Development Report (2021)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") issued by the National Energy Administration on August 21 pointed out that it will promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy and expand in an orderly manner in many fields such as industry, construction, transportation, and electricity. The scale of natural gas utilization, and the full use of the characteristics of high efficiency of gas power generation, flexible operation, fast start and stop speed, short construction period, and small footprint, take gas-electric peak shaving as an important component of building a new power system with new energy as the main body Part of it is one of the important ways to help energy carbon reach its peak and build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.
Benefiting from favorable policies, the natural gas development environment in the near and mid-term is more favorable. It is estimated that domestic natural gas will still be in a growth stage by 2035.
The "Report" proposes that through reasonable guidance and market construction, the scale of natural gas consumption will reach 430 billion to 450 billion cubic meters in 2025, and 550 billion to 600 billion cubic meters in 2030. After that, natural gas consumption will grow steadily and sustainably, and it will enter around 2040. Development platform period.
Long-term stable development requires good use of the "two markets"
At present, the global risk of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, coupled with the frequent occurrence of extreme weather such as high temperature and extreme cold, has a greater impact on the global natural gas supply and demand pattern.
Fluctuations in natural gas prices have increased markedly, and opportunities and challenges coexist in the development of the domestic natural gas market in the second half of the year.
The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration stated that the next step is to make full use of the domestic and international markets, stick to the domestic market, continue to increase the level of domestic gas field production and supply, and enhance diversified import capabilities.
In fact, with a high degree of external dependence, my country has begun to accelerate the development of domestic natural gas supply reserves.
In 2018, in accordance with the central decision and deployment, various local departments and oil and gas companies strengthened the top-level design of natural gas development, vigorously increased exploration and development efforts, and strived to increase the proportion of clean energy in China's energy structure.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that my country's natural gas production continues to grow rapidly. In 2020, natural gas production will be 188.8 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.8% over the previous year, and the output has increased by more than 10 billion cubic meters for four consecutive years.
The growth rate of natural gas production has been faster than the growth rate of consumption for two consecutive years, and the ability to ensure supply security has continued to improve.
At the same time, the construction of "one network across the country" has been accelerated, interconnection capabilities have been significantly improved, gas storage and peak shaving capabilities have been further enhanced, and stable gas supply has been achieved during the heating season.
The four major import channels have been further improved, major interconnection infrastructure facilities have been rapidly advancing, and a number of key projects such as the middle section of the Sino-Russian Eastern Route and Qingning Pipeline have been completed and put into operation one after another.
The capacity of gas storage and peak shaving is further enhanced.
With the gradual escalation of the global energy transition, the strategic position of natural gas resources has gradually increased, and the battle for natural gas resources has become increasingly fierce in recent years.
In the long run, my country's natural gas development still faces challenges such as insufficient resources, high import costs, and insufficient autonomy in gas turbine core technologies.
"Based on the domestic market, it is necessary to speed up infrastructure construction through in-depth market-oriented reforms, promote the interconnection of pipe networks, enhance investment attractiveness, and increase investment; for the international market, it is necessary to uphold an open approach to ensure safety and give full play to our country. The advantages of large market size and strong expected payment capabilities attract international natural gas resources to flow to the Chinese market." Liu Yijun said.
Regarding the reform of the oil and gas system, Zhang Jianhua, Party Secretary and Director of the National Energy Administration, pointed out that it is necessary to promote the full liberalization of upstream exploration and exploitation market access, improve the oil and gas pipeline network operation and investment mechanism, and encourage various market entities to invest in the construction of pipeline infrastructure and storage facilities. Improve the fair access mechanism of infrastructure, accelerate the reform of natural gas prices, improve the gas franchise policy, and reduce the cost of gas.