The production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology responds to the formulation of sodium-ion battery standards
Take the road of scientific and technological independence, China’s power battery plays a good innovation "first move"
Since Edison first invented the rechargeable nickel-iron battery in 1890, batteries with a wide range of chemical systems have been widely used in various fields such as military, electronic consumption, and transportation.
But I am afraid that no industry can bring historic opportunities and tests to the global battery industry like new energy vehicles.
Statistics show that in July of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 284,000 and 271,000 respectively. The market showed the characteristics of "non-slack in the off-season". Production and sales continued to grow month-on-month and year-on-year, and both hit record highs.
Considering that the second half of the year is usually the peak season for new energy vehicle sales, there is a great probability that new energy vehicle sales in 2021 will exceed market expectations.
More importantly, from upstream bulk raw materials to midstream batteries and motors, to downstream charging piles, the development of new energy vehicles can open up core technologies such as photovoltaics, batteries, and semiconductors.
From vehicle companies accelerating the deployment of new energy vehicle business, to power batteries showing a situation in which demand exceeds demand, the battery industry chain is vying to expand production, and to the recent central deployment of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization efforts, it is necessary to adhere to a national game of chess. Correcting the sports-style "carbon reduction"...Where will the craze caused by new energy vehicles flow? It has become the vane of the battery track.
"Starting from 2021, the global lithium battery market demand will increase significantly, but looking at the supply side, the current capacity supply growth of the entire industry chain is relatively slow, and effective supply is insufficient." Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. It is predicted that in the next 5 years, the lithium industry market will usher in a blowout period and enter the TWh era.
This means that in all links from raw material supply, battery manufacturing, new energy vehicle research and development to energy structure adjustment, and the development of green energy storage, all participants need to work together to complete the "relay run" of high-quality development.
Why are Chinese battery companies scrambling to expand production capacity
"Due to the shortage of power battery supply, we will temporarily suspend production." "Tesla will buy as much as the battery supplier gives."...This summer, the hotness of power batteries is no less than the high temperature.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country reached 284,000 and 271,000 respectively, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.3% and 5.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times and 1.6 times.
From January to July this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.504 million and 1.478 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of both.
The increase in sales of new energy vehicles has naturally triggered the rapid growth of the global power battery industry.
The "New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain Database" released by the Advanced Industry Research Institute (GGII) shows that in 2020, the global sales of new energy vehicles will be approximately 3.19 million, an increase of 44% year-on-year, and the installed capacity of power batteries will be approximately 136.30GWh, an increase of 18% year-on-year. .
According to GGII's forecast, by 2025, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase to more than 20%, and power battery shipments will reach 1,100GWh.
The outstanding sales performance and market expectations of new energy vehicles have caused the power battery industry chain to quickly enter a wave of investment and expansion.
Among them, Ningde Times, a leading company in the power battery industry, has made the biggest contribution, and announced a fundraising plan of no more than 58.2 billion yuan.
According to the plan, in addition to the 9.3 billion yuan used to supplement working capital, most of the huge increase in funds is mainly used to expand production capacity, promote new energy advanced technology research and development and application projects, and plan to expand the power and energy storage battery production capacity to 137GWh.
In fact, it is not only the Ningde era that is ready to free up to expand production capacity.
Public information shows that only in the first quarter of this year, battery manufacturers such as CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and AVIC Lithium Battery have successively announced more than 20 new investment and construction projects related to power batteries, with an investment of up to 160 billion yuan, and an annual production capacity of more than 350GWh.
Securities analysts predict that by the end of 2025, the total production capacity of global battery companies will reach 2242GWh.
"The king of competition is that the technology is stronger than the opponent, and the product is more abundant than the opponent. Therefore, while accelerating the production capacity layout, we must spare no effort to improve the technical level of the battery." Fu Yuwu, Honorary Director of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineering It is believed that it is "very logical" for head battery companies like CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech to seize the current historic opportunity to increase investment in technology research and development and expand production capacity.
Statistics from GGII show that the global installed capacity of power batteries will be approximately 136.30GWh in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 18%.
Among the top 10 battery companies in terms of installed capacity, Chinese companies occupy 6 seats.
The total share of Chinese battery companies in the global market has also surpassed South Korea and Japan, ranking first.
"Global cars are entering the fast lane of electrification, and China's power batteries are already at the forefront of the world." Fu Yuwu commented that from the demand side, a large number of vehicle companies have undergone major changes in their attitudes towards electrification.
Before the electrification transformation of Chinese cars was at the forefront, now German car companies including Volkswagen, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, etc. have also started the pace of electrification transformation, so the demand for power batteries has surged.
From the supply side, high-quality power battery suppliers still have insufficient capacity.
"Although there are many battery factories around the world, and some vehicle companies are also trying to master the batteries by themselves, China's power battery industry is firmly in the forefront of the world in terms of technology and production capacity."
It is worth noting that the market concentration of the power battery industry has further risen, and there is a trend of "leading companies will die, and other companies will starve to death".
In 2020, the total installed capacity of the top 10 companies in the global power battery installed capacity is about 126.47GWh, accounting for 93% of the global power battery installed capacity, and this proportion has increased by 4% year-on-year.
"This shows that the production capacity of power batteries is structural, and high-end production capacity is still tight. In the future, backward production capacity will be gradually eliminated in various arms expansion preparations." According to industry insiders, it has won the world's first power battery installed capacity for 4 consecutive years. After the throne, CATL tried to once again use fund-raising to increase the "first move", while strengthening the power and energy storage battery capacity construction, while continuing to invest in advanced technology research and development, which will help consolidate its power battery and energy storage battery Leading position in the field.
Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Institute of Digital Economy, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, believes that thanks to China’s first-mover advantage in the field of new energy vehicles, many Chinese battery companies have sufficient technical reserves in power batteries. “Whether it is iron phosphate Lithium batteries are still ternary lithium batteries. These Chinese battery companies have obvious advantages in scale and technology. At the same time, we also have the advantage of a complete supply chain."
He suggested that while expanding production capacity, battery companies should also strengthen technological upgrades and seek benefits from technological innovation.
"For example, with regard to the recycling of lithium batteries, there is still a surplus of lithium battery materials. Battery companies should pay great attention to the recycling of resources. This is very important for the sustainable development of enterprises and the economy and society."
How to break through the rapids of rising raw material prices and low-end overcapacity
A closer look at the soaring curve of lithium concentrate prices reveals that the above concerns are all justified.
It is understood that compared with the price on January 1 this year, the price of lithium carbonate on July 20 rose by 66%, and the price of lithium hydroxide rose by 96%.
Obviously, with the advent of the expansion wave of the battery industry, there may be bottlenecks in the supply of upstream battery materials.
Some calculation results show that by 2025, the global supply of lithium resources is equivalent to 1.2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and the demand is 1.5 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and there will be a gap of about 300,000 tons.
"Global battery demand is growing rapidly, and the spatial distribution of lithium resources is uneven. China's battery industry chain is beginning to face the problem of lithium resource constraints." An industry research report by Everbright Securities shows that on the one hand, the total distribution of lithium resources is limited, The abundance is only 0.006%; on the other hand, the spatial distribution of lithium resources is uneven. Lithium mines are mainly distributed in Australia and South America, and my country’s battery production is too dependent on external lithium.
In addition, due to the previous downturn in the lithium mine cycle that caused many mines to shut down, and the adverse impact of the raging foreign new crown pneumonia epidemic, it is difficult for the supply of lithium resources to meet the rapid growth of downstream demand in the short term.
There is no doubt that the fundamental solution to the shortage of raw materials lies in battery technology innovation.
The first-generation sodium-ion battery released by CATL not long ago proved this idea.
"Some people say that it is difficult to innovate the chemical system of the battery and can only make some improvements in the physical structure. We think that the world of electrochemistry is like an energy cube, the unknown is far greater than the known, and we are tirelessly exploring the mysteries of it. "Zeng Yuqun said bluntly at the press conference, "A diversified technical route is an important guarantee for the long-term stable development of the battery industry."
On the one hand, the abundance of sodium resources is higher and the cost is lower; on the other hand, sodium-ion batteries also have unique advantages in terms of low-temperature performance, fast charging, and environmental adaptability, and they can be compatible and complementary with lithium-ion batteries.
However, due to the larger volume of sodium ions, the requirements for structural stability and kinetic performance of the materials are more stringent. Previously, it was difficult for sodium ion batteries to achieve large-scale commercial applications.
According to reports, based on a series of breakthroughs in the material system, the first-generation sodium-ion battery developed by CATL has the advantages of high energy density, high rate charging, excellent thermal stability, good low temperature performance and high integration efficiency.
The energy density of its battery cell is as high as 160Wh/kg; charging at room temperature for 15 minutes, the power can reach more than 80%; even in a low temperature environment of minus 20 degrees Celsius, it also has a discharge retention rate of more than 90%; system integration efficiency can reach Above 80%; thermal stability far exceeds the safety requirements of national mandatory standards.
"The first-generation sodium-ion battery can be applied to various transportation electrification scenarios, especially in alpine regions, with outstanding advantages, but also can be flexibly adapted to the application needs of all scenarios in the energy storage field." said Huang Qisen, deputy dean of the Ningde Times Research Institute In order to make up for the current shortcomings of sodium-ion batteries in energy density, CATL has also developed an AB battery system solution, that is, sodium-ion batteries and lithium-ion batteries are mixed and matched in a certain proportion and integrated into the same battery system. Here, the balance control of different battery systems is performed through the BMS precise algorithm.
Analysts at Everbright Securities believe that in scenarios where energy density is not high, sodium-ion batteries will have a wide range of application prospects.
For example, energy storage, electric two-wheeled vehicles and A00-class new energy vehicles are expected to reach 123GWh of domestic battery demand in these three areas by 2025.
Because it can directly determine the product performance of new energy vehicles, power batteries are regarded as the "soul" of new energy vehicles.
"Battery companies are expanding their production capacity while improving the level of battery technology. It is no small challenge. Because the future competition around battery technology will be fierce." Fu Yuwu admitted frankly that both battery manufacturers and OEMs want to " The soul is in their own hands", all want to firmly grasp the core technology.
Multinational car companies such as Tesla and Volkswagen have begun preparations to build their own power battery factories.
"Chinese battery companies represented by the Ningde era have been at the forefront of the world battery industry. This is an extremely precious opportunity, even a historic opportunity. On the basis of playing a good first move, we will continue to do so in the future. Work hard." He told reporters that in order to become the world's leading battery company, it is necessary to achieve technological innovation and take the road of technological self-reliance.
"Whether it is the technological innovation of battery materials, the innovation of battery structure, and the upgrading of production processes, it is inseparable from the flowing water of research and development. Only when the continuous emergence of battery technology innovation results can we consolidate the existing first-mover advantages."
According to reports, around the three strategic directions of "replacement of stationary fossil energy with renewable energy generation and storage, the development of electric vehicles with power batteries, and the integration of electrification and intelligence as an innovation", CATL has created The four major innovation supports of material chemical system, system structure, extreme manufacturing and business model have formed the ability to transform from cutting-edge basic research to industrial application to commercialization and large-scale promotion.
"This round of battery industry expansion has exposed problems such as rising raw material prices and low-end overcapacity, which need to be resolved as soon as possible." Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy vehicles, reminded that the entire new energy vehicle industry is still in a gradually mature stage, but Some problems need to be prepared in advance.
"For example, when this large number of power batteries should be decommissioned, I hope that we have established a scientific and reasonable battery recycling system so that new energy vehicles can truly contribute to'carbon peak and carbon neutrality'."
It is worth mentioning that on August 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated in its response to the CPPCC proposal that it would organize relevant standard research institutions to develop sodium-ion battery standards in a timely manner, and provide support in the procedures of standard project approval and standard approval.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will strengthen the layout in policy documents related to the "14th Five-Year Plan", starting from various aspects such as promoting cutting-edge technology research, improving supporting policies, and opening up market applications. High-quality development.
At the same time, the Ministry of Science and Technology will implement the “Energy Storage and Smart Grid Technology” key special project during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and list sodium-ion battery technology as a sub-task to further promote the large-scale and low-cost sodium-ion battery. Comprehensive performance.
"Innovation is the gene of the Ningde era, and it is also the driving force for the accelerated development of the Ningde era. We have more than 5,000 research and development personnel, and everyone is engaged in scientific research." Changes will bring deep-seated impacts to all walks of life, promote the vigorous development of the new energy industry, and provide a stage for different technologies.
Some people say that "better performance, lower cost, and better safety" is the "impossible triangle" in the development of power batteries.
But in a sense, the history of battery development is almost a history of human beings domesticating various chemical elements and continuously exploring the limits of energy utilization.
Energy is the material basis for the development of human society, and the "carbon peak and carbon neutral" era will undoubtedly accelerate the progress of the new energy battery industry.
China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Xu Yajie Source: China Youth Daily