Aurélien Fleurot, edited by Thibaud Le Meneec 12:27, August 22, 2021

Due to an episode of frost in Brazil and even more cyclical factors, the price of arabica will soon see an increase.

However, this increase will be moderate, with only a few cents more per capsule, assure specialists in this market.

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The coffee you drank this Sunday morning could soon cost you a little more. This isn't a dramatic increase, but the world coffee price has risen sharply in recent weeks, rising 60% per pound of arabica, its highest level since 2014.

There are several reasons for this.

The main one comes from Brazil, because it snowed in Rio Grande do Sul, a region in the south.

A very rare cold snap with immediate consequences for the country that produces the most Arabica in the world.

"You should know that the coffee tree is a tree very sensitive to frost and 20% to 30% of Brazilian coffee trees could have been affected", explains Philippe Chalmin, professor at the Univ Paris Dauphine, specialist in raw materials.

"The current harvest will not be affected, but the coming harvest will be."

Increased cost of transport

There are other more cyclical reasons, linked to the health context, to explain this increase.

"We are undergoing a huge increase in transport costs, the container has gone from 7,000 to 12,000-14,000 dollars. Behind this, road transport has taken 14% in one year", specifies Philippe Sauzay, co-founder of the Terramoka company.

"At the exit, that does not make much, because the capsule at 35 cents will pass to 37 cents", he qualifies however.

Be careful, however, if you buy your coffee in beans: for this method of consumption, the increase will be slightly more noticeable, quite simply because there is more coffee than in a capsule.

This situation is likely to continue because world consumption has been increasing steadily for ten years. 

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